PivotPoint

11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

MJO charts/forecasts

ah, thank you

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Sorry, HM is stating that different MJO charts and forecasts will vary in the predictions of where the MJO will head.  To add to that not only might the phase be forecasted incorrectly but the amplitude might be incorrect as well.

Models use the MJO in the forecasts they generate, as you know, and a slightly off amp can cause issues, let alone the incorrect forecast of what phase the MJO will be in say two weeks from now.   

 To simply look at what a model is forecastig for the MJO and not to consider other tools in addition, plus the weather pattern and evolution will lead to an incorrect forecast.This winter, so far, the MJO forecasts have been a big issue.   

Got it.

Yes, that makes sense.. good point.

And the mjo has seemed to be tough to predict this year and each model has handled it very differently. I saw the recent gfs (I believe) push us into a more favorable phase (7?). My knowledge base ends at the definition of mjo and to a much lesser extent do I know how to integrate its content.

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Good points, and this is something to think about as well. 

 

 

Sorry, I don't follow. I don't know what RMMs means so

Some thoughts:

Seeing that we'll have some cold anomalies hanging around here the next 6-10 days and potential "bootleg blocking" I think our best chance for accumulating snow in dc/metro is a redeveloping clipper.

When looking at the gefs means our best chance at 500mb (Imo) is a vort that swings down on the NS and then (times) hits a bootleg block. The +pna will add favorability to this idea considering the ridge is riding high all the way to almost Alaska for crying out loud. Additionally, if a vort can dig hard enough in the NS and then have just a slight and brief relaxation in the pna, then we might be able to get that thing to turn the coast and get a 3-6" deal. The most logical outcome though, however, is it turns too early and rides the gradient that might be in the wrong place (if the WAR is still pushing back).

Just an idea, but to summarize 1) cold air, 2) +pna 3) NS vort digs, 4) bootleg block = 3-6"

The thing is we probably wouldn't see the details of this scenario till like 72-112 hours out. If that idea does even exist

Wouldn't that be nice

11 minutes ago, frd said:

Yuck !

Thats worse than me posting weather porn of 30 inches of snow next week from the Fv3   :-)  

Funny though, I almost spit out my coffee 

Louisiana gets more snow than us, lol

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Possible storm around the 30th, possible storm on the 2'nd, PAC bounces back in the long range, WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO>>>> after filtering through Ji's brain>>>>> WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO = This winter sucks, winter cancel.

The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers 

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Been positive this morning but I am going to Deb here for a second. Mind you this is just my general impression over the years, the statisticians can correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me once we get WAR established and it reaches mid winter then it is very hard to dislodge. My thoughts at this point are that we will not see a sustained western/central based -NAO for the rest of the winter and only bootlegs as the WAR temporarily gets shoved up into the NAO domain before WAR gets reestablished. Wouldn't rule out a somewhat sustained east based -NAO as heights build out of Europe but that configuration typically doesn't work for us. Hoping I am wrong here.

I agree with this anecdotal point. Also, observationally my thoughts are that one main driver (EPO, PNA, NAO, War, Etc) tends to dominate (for good or bad) a seasonal pattern for the EC. The WAR seems to be ours this winter and it's not a favorable one to have. We'll probably look back in April and all be like "yup, that WAR did us in".

Who knows though

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Actually the WA +heights have been persistent for a while, centered off the Canadian Maritimes for the most part. That does need to change IMO. Essentially we have had a 50-50 high, which is problematic for getting a good storm track with cold air. The mean ridge axis out west needs to be further east, and if in fact what many runs of the GFS/GEFS have been suggesting comes to fruition, h5 heights will build into the NAO space and the WAR should weaken.

That's the goal

I thought the WAR had relaxed on the means starting mid-jan till basically now (or a couple days ago). Looks likes the ridge on the GEFS keeps getting pumped up in the medium range. I could be wrong on that

To me the latest ensemble runs keep showing the WAR as a consistent feature which was not there 5-7 days ago. Instead those heights were where we wanted them in the nao domain. The WAR is creating a gradient right along the coast that is forcing our storm track to be razor thin. This is part of the reason why we go from cold dry, to warm wet, back to cold dry.

Until we see that ridge rotate into the nao space or it at least relax and the +pna build with some timed blocking (real blocking doesn’t exist anymore ugh) then I see any real storm chances at a minimum. We’d need a timed front with moisture and at least a pseudo block to score otherwise imo. Not looking ideal attm 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

Yea, no idea what he's talking about. 12z eps looked like its close to splitting flow again, east-based blocking, etc. Not horrible at all

Any thoughts on the GFS looking like its losing the -NAO... the last three runs its seemed to have wavered and backed off quite a bit moving into the ned of Jan. The GEFS 6z doesn't seem all that enthused either although it does maintain some blocking up there, but also keeps breaking down the +PNA out west.

It's looking like wet and warm followed by cold and dry as the lower mean heights seem to be passing to our west then cold fronts crash through

Not exactly what we want but also not a complete mess like a raging SE ridge or something of that nature

I don’t have access to euro maps but what’s the surface look like here... I’m sure it’s been discussed so excuse my ignorance 

Eta: never mind I went back and found the disco on it. 174hrs out and icon/gfs/ euro have a gulf low. Things could be worse 

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If the last couple weeks and the 2 weeks in front of us have taught us anything... No pattern has legs. Good or bad. So even if the trough digs west, are we really that sure it's going to stay that way for weeks on end? I'll take the way under if the neg pna develops in the first place. 

100% agree. All models I’ve seen have at worst a transient trough and most keep reloading higher heights near or in the NAO domain.

If we can just hang on for a bit my hunch is we get that split flow to come back at some point and then Ji is in business

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough

I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions

I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive

Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

Minus what looks like a fairly fast flow from the PAC, there’s some miller b potential there as it looks like we have a gradient that goes right above us, correct? West to east storm track

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

Lol

Got all our bases covered on that one 

Just now, Round Hill WX said:

There are some flurries blowing around here. 

Well that’s not half bad I guess 

Seeing some returns around Winchester that are rotating northeast. Any of that reaching the ground? My location is probably out but someone in Md might see some flurries

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now. 

You'll be alright is my hunch. But worse comes to worse drive the 2 hours and you're at Stowe. They'll be all snow unless this thing pulls a 180*

Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances.

Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA.

Please correct me if I’m wrong

Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks 

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

HRRR initializes using radar data. Prob won't start being accurate until precip is east of the apps. 

might not even then 

HRRR is improving... ever so slightly. Looks like a light coating now. Was showing nothing on all previous runs

Not the juiciest of systems but a decent slug of moisture. Maybe an 1" in NoVA?

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Would make the most sense... so yeah

Cool

Seeing some returns to our southwest around harrisonburg. Maybe get some flurries in here before the rush

We doing obs in here for today's thing?