PivotPoint

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just...I mean, I thought we would have to see more support for a possible hit before we went that far.

I know my opinion matters squat in here. But the people on here who enjoy storm mode must really enjoy having the power to modify posts.

Just sayinnnnn

On topic:

Those embedded short waves in NS flow are being handle differently by each model suite. So I like that there is little consensus right now because it keeps all options on the table 

Just now, mappy said:

you are free to post elsewhere if you don't like how the mods/admin handle storms. 

Lol, thanks Mappy I appreciate your input

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why... it would stop the posting of "it is getting squashed"... to only have the same person 3 post later saying... "well maybe not"... or someone saying "this is going to be bad" but if they actually know what they are looking at, would know better.

Because:

1. Model discussion should be inclusive this far out from the event, not exclusive

2. It WAS still squashed on the GFS

3. Who cares if the 12z CMC comes to fruition 

CMC is a straight shellacking. Please and thank you

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

LOL thanks  

stooooorrrrrmmmmmmm moooooodddddeeeeeeeeeee

lol at storm mode this far out

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It does. 

You're right. Not sure it will matter that much. But yes, I was incorrect

I stand corrected. Just looked at 500b....everrrrr so slightly sharper

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It’s not.  So far

Don't know what y'all are looking at but it doesn't appear any LESS flat 

Think the 12z GFS isn't going to do it for us

Out to 66hr heights are ever so slightly stronger... We'll see/hope

A typically good setup for DC/Balt region is when we have WAA start the show. Depicted in the 6z GFS there is a moderate amount of cold air damming when the overruning moisture hits from the southwest. 

Living around here for a number of years I like that type of setup for two reasons:

1. WAA events can give you a really nice thump on the front end. They can come in fast and hard which is great for getting saturation quickly and the show started.

2. If the low tracks inside the coast or it doesn’t deepen quickly enough we will will get rain/mix. However, we would already of had a nice 4-5 hour thump during the WAA so there would most likely be a nice swath of snow already laid down.

So it’s a win and a hedge against risk. That’s why I like these events that start out with WAA snows.

On 11/11/2018 at 11:53 AM, J.Spin said:

Around here in the Northern/Central Greens, I’d say the more lenient resorts with respect to people skinning for turns would be Mad River Glen, Bolton Valley, Smugg’s, and Jay Peak.  For the past several seasons, Sugarbush has seemed to be on the more restrictive side like most recent policies posted by Stowe, but even if you don’t visit those two resorts, that still leaves at least two eastern slope and two western slope options in the area.  Ideally it’s best to have them all in play, since some areas can do better than others in any given storm cycle.  I’m sure people are skinning for turns at Sugarbush and Stowe (PF noted the presence of cars), it’s probably just done a bit more covertly when the more restrictive policies are in place.  Wherever you go though, just be respectful of the mountain, and especially the mountain operations that are going on.  Ideally it’s just best to stay well away from any sort of work that’s being done (grooming, snowmaking, etc.), so if you can, choose a touring route that doesn’t go near any of that.

And I’m glad you’re making use of the reports I send out.  With mountain weather and snowpack conditions often changing so rapidly, and access to specific data from the higher elevations hard to come by, it can be really tough to know what’s going on up there.  Getting that beta out there for others to use is definitely one of the key reasons for putting the reports together.  When the snow is good, I’m typically going to be out there for recreation and exercise anyway.  I’m always going to write up something and get photos to put in my ski journal/website anyway, and getting the weather and snow/weather conditions in there is an important part of documenting the event.

Great info. Really appreciate the scoop!

I'm going to try for Friday, most likely will make the trek to Jay considering I know mountain pretty well and after reading their policy (seems fairly generous) I feel good about the possibly for some turns.

Here’s hoping for many more storms to come this season!

13 hours ago, J.Spin said:

After the way things seemed to work last year, my advice on uphill at Stowe was to simply avoid it altogether once any mountain operations were taking place.  With opening day set for November 16^th, that essentially means any day now, or basically as soon as it’s cold enough to resume snowmaking.

I decided to check on the formal uphill policy on the website:

https://www.stowe.com/the-mountain/about-the-mountain/mountain-safety.aspx

Here are a couple of relevant excerpts:

Important Announcement - November 6, 2018 - TBD

Please be advised that for the safety of our general public, guests and employees, uphill access will not be permitted during the early season due to mountain operations and snowmaking work taking place at the resort. Stowe Mountain Resort will open for uphill access when early season operations are complete, and when the resort has adequate terrain to safely permit these activities.

So I figured once the mountain opened, that was it, no hiking for turns until they deemed “early season” was over (whenever that might be).  But lower down on the page there’s also this:

Mountain Closed for Uphill Access During Pre-Season Operations

Although the mountain is closed for the season, mountain operations continue and skiing/riding is forbidden at this time.

The way that’s written (closed for the season is usually written in the spring), it suggests they’re not even allowing any pre-season/off season hiking?

I can only imagine how this policy is received by the Stowe town locals.  It’s hard to know which of these policies are actually enforced, and which are actually just for legal C.Y.A. purposes by the resort.  Perhaps things are back to the way it used to be long ago with a “don’t ask, don’t tell” type of policy, or guerrilla-style outings.  I don’t think we actually had any really potent storms ahead of the lifts opening last fall, so if these next couple of systems deliver something substantial, I guess we’ll just have to see how it actually plays out at the mountain.

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

That's the current official policy adopted from the western areas.  Being the first area in the east owned by them, there may be potential to change.  Out west there are avalanche issues and also a lot of additional options for skiing aside from the resorts.  Out west, if there's enough snow to ski at the resort, there's enough to snow to ski in a lot of places.  The "backcountry" in the east requires quite a bit more snow than the trails, where as out west if it snows, you can just walk up above any road and ski a sweet bowl or glade.  The uphill travel pressure isn't nearly as heavy out west in-bounds.  With that said, there were numerous cars in the Gondola parking lots during the last snowfall.

Thanks guys!

Oh, and J Spin, I lurk on your reports pretty heavily during the winter time. Love the detail and consistency! Thanks for sharing those.

I appreciate the insight PowderFreak -- I also always appreciate your "parking lot" reports when you report it's dumping at the base and it's a light mix in town. Gives me that warm fuzzy feeling lol

Any other spots you'd guys would go if you wanted a few preseason turns (without going out west of course) Thanks again

What are potential thoughts for this coming Wednesday/Thursday (next week) for some uphill action?

I'm not sure on Stowe's uphill policy. Perhaps PowderFreak could enlighten the non-enlightened.... Please and Thank you

I see some potential on the NAM for this weekend and perhaps another round for Tuesday-Wednesday on the globals for Northern Greens....Hope the FV3-GFS is on to something :) 

Thinking perhaps above 2500' could have some early season gifts to offer!! One can hope...