PivotPoint

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty easy honestly. Just blend the ops and it's a well agreed upon .1 - .4 from north to south. Southern zones look good for more. If i was making a forecast i would do exactly that. Something like 1-3" far northern zones, 2-4 in the meat of our area, and 5"+ across the bullseye area. Forecasters have another 24 hours before headlines need to be raised.  Should be more clear by then.

There is always boom/bust potential. Weak waa and no coastal enhancement amd its a bust. Boom can come from 2 different scenarios. Strong surge of waa precip and totals go up. Or coastal gets involved and enhances banding as it departs. The waa surge will be interesting to watch for another 24+ hours. Once the shield develops ops will have a better handle on how it progresses. Could break in our favor. Euro op and control just hinted at it.

The coastal enhancement is much more complicated. That has boom/bust potential at very short leads. Once the system is organzied in the plains and upper air features are mostly figured out we should probably see consensus on that piece but it's always tricky. 

Got it. Yea, good points.

I think the mins are pretty well set for 2" across dc metro, 1" Balt and NE MD, 3" from Richmond to EZF. Booms would probably be 6", 5", and 8" respectively.

Boom potential is probably best to wait and see when the precip shield develops and we can see where the best banding/growth settles in.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

May as well post it all... lol. Control is juicy. Wish it was the op solution

Bob,

I know this questions gets kicked around a lot at leads like these but whats your opinion on the ensembles 60hrs out with this event and their usefulness. They seem jumpy with this event especially and one model seems to pick up on an idea then lose it, then another one picks up on the opposite idea. Do we just have to start choosing sides with one of the ops and make a reasonable assumption that it is the one handling the evolution the best? 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Control looks really good. Has you in the .6 qpf range. You'd be very happy if the control verifies

 

Wow, that is really good.

Man, I do not know what to think about this event. Hard to pin down -- a guess a blend of euro/gfs with more weight on the euro. I just can't tell

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is step forward. Very few give dca less than .2 qpf and majority are juicier than the op. Overall it's a good run but it's best to favor the op at this point. The biggest takeaway is there is more boom potential than bust among the solutions. 

That is really good news

Eta: do you have the control run QPF?

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We have a slot open in our condo at Snowshoe this weekend if interested. 

Wow, that's actually pretty enticing. I'll message you with my phone number so we can chat and confirm we're both not weirdos lol.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_Ay40ftk9UNwEn6As1WdlWcHhbAElhozUyig9yTgBEY/edit?usp=sharing

Those are pretty good lol

I'll keep trying to make the list 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

you brought me up in a storm thread for no reason. and i can't help myself? 

for all that "if you dish it you should take it" lecture you gave me, you sure do seem to get on the defensive pretty quickly when challenged in return.

I will tell you as I tell all my other fans, if you don't like me, then don't engage with me and put me on ignore. its a simple as that. I am not going anywhere, nor do i plan on changing how i post. take it or leave it. 

now, there is snow to follow and this stupidity is frankly a waste of my time. 

ok, mappy go start waiting for your snow now..... 60hrs flys by if you're having fun lol

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Never been up there, looks great. Locally I ski snowshoe, I travel to NM and CO for an annual trip for a week per year to hit more powder. I’m open to try New England for sure. 

Yea, it's great when conditions aren't too cold and windy. Tip: Stay in Burlington when you go. 45 min to Stowe 1:10 to Jay and Burlington is a cool little city with better hotel rates than  what you'll find on the mountain. Plus lake Champlain is really pretty. Try Farmstead and Heady Topper beers when you're there. Awesome micros

Got bunch more tips if you ever want them

Just now, mappy said:

going on a rant and calling people hypocrites probably doesn't help you at all. take care. 

Wow, you can't help yourself can you. I only brought that to light because of how fired-up you get right off the bat. Case and point ERS basically saying "ok, I see" and you taking offense to that. I understood his sub-text. Additionally, talking about someone as being hypocritical is not calling you a name. It's just not

Just now, H2O said:

See?  If mappy was an admin ryanconway would have only told us 712 times

haha

that's pretty funny lol

1 minute ago, mappy said:

wow. alright. i'm really sorry i misinterpreted your post. tone is hard to read over the internet, so my sincere apologies. take care. 

 

 

This is what IVE BEEN SAYING!!!

Everyone gets so mad... I thought we were all just having a good laugh till people starting calling others names. Thats not cool. Darn it I did it again! That'ssssssss

By the way @ers-wxman1

My avatar pic is me up in Stowe, Vt a few years back. Great woods and glades up there. Have you been? Talk about upslope -- Jaypeak reporting a fresh foot today

By the way I thought Mappy was an admin... she isn't?

Well, I vote for her! She's got the right disposition for it

Just now, stormtracker said:

These are real typos/errors btw.   Classics back in the early days of this forum.   Love it.  

Do you love mine??

The hear one...

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another tidbit on the euro to note is the increase in WAA precip to our due west. It was a noticeable increase and indicates the waa leaf is stronger on this run. Of course the apps will do their damage etc but look at the differences between 0z and 12z in Garrett CO/NE WV. 

If we aren't going to get any help from the coastal we need to root for the best case scenario with the front running waa leaf. 

Yea, the higher totals in Canaan valley are a good sign that some of that more robust WAA makes its way to us. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm sitting here eating lunch, working on an InDesign project and listening to Mahler.   I'm not that angry to be honest.   Bored.  We all dig on each other re: typos.  And nobody gets upset and start attacking like you did.  We've all made some whopper typos and we've all ribbed each other about it and laughed. So, if you want to talk about "geez, it's all in good fun"...well...you failed your own metric.  

 You should probably learn the lay of the land and  then you'd stop misinterpreting things.

Oh, it's "it's", not its.  

oh, it is. I thought this whole time its suppose to be it's when talking about what it is. Like it's really funny were still talking about possessives or is it because you are possessed about possessives!!! Its certainly got to be that. Darn, I did it again!!!

Just now, H2O said:

I beg to differ.  That H2O moron has infected this board for years with all kinds of idiocy.  Clearly not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

lol

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm sitting here eating lunch, working on an InDesign project and listening to Mahler.   I'm not that angry to be honest.   Bored.  We all dig on each other re: typos.  And nobody gets upset and start attacking like you did.  We've all made some whopper typos and we've all ribbed each other about it and laughed. So, if you want to talk about "geez, it's all in good fun"...well...you failed your own metric.  

 You should probably learn the lay of the land and  then you'd stop misinterpreting things.

Oh, it's "it's", not its.  

You think using you play on words and me using it back relating it to weather analysis is attacking you??

You really think that? Seriously?

For the record to, I think all of you on here are probably pretty smart to be honest. Weather is not a easy hobby to comprehend so I'd like to point out I don't think name calling (especially intelligence) is friendly banter.

I was trying to be friendly and use satire. if that didn't come across Im sorry storm tracker, H20, Wxtrix, and mappy 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You attacked my model analysis.  I am inconsolable.  You're a meanie.  Your words are hurtful.

I hope your life is ok and all that other bullsh*t you were saying to H20.  Go hear on THAT.  

lol

I mean come on, I made a typo and you called attention to that. I wrote something clever back. Why do all of you get so angry about this??? I thought this is what banter is... did anyone here play on sports teams growing up??? Geeze, its all in good fun. No need to point out typos Stormtracker. Its ok buddy

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hear Here! 

lol

Good job storm tracker!

Just like your model analysis you always have very astute points to add... always!!

Hear me now???

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i think you're getting a head of yourself and taking sides where there shouldn't be sides to take. 

ERS made his call and I rightfully called him out for being so definitive so soon. He may be right, and if so, then kudos to him. Its why he works at LWX and I do not.

But i own no one an apology and would appreciate it if you wouldn't stir the pot for shits and giggles. 

You don't owe anyone an apology, its all in jest on my part.

But Mappy, come on, you LOVEEEEE calling other people out. You just do. You literally do it ALL THE TIME. You love being an administrator. You banter with the best of them and then turn right around and tell others to stop battering. You can't make this stuff up lol, it's hilarious. Ive grown to like the hypocrisy. But in all seriousness I mentioned it because you used a very sarcastic line back at ERS. You did, you know you did. And he'll probably end up right sticking to his analysis and you tried to upstage him on that with one model run of the GFS. I was simply drawing attention to that cause you do the same to others who make definitive answers... I can give you specific examples if you'd like.

 If someone called me out I would own that. 100% unequivocally.

If you can't take it back then don't dish it out. Thats just an my personal opinion. You don't have to agree with it

Just now, H2O said:

This is the banter thread.  And holding grudges over weather is dumb

No grudges, just simple opinions. And keeping my language respectful which seems to escape many on hear. Makes me feel bad for people that feel they need to call others stupid they've never met before. That'a a rough place to be in your life. I hope they're ok

3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

imagine being so clueless and stupid that you accuse HM of “wishful thinking”.

Stupid?

That's a pretty hurtful thing to call someone you've never met. I hope things are ok for you in your life.

Just now, Jandurin said:

lol

that's a nice retcon of history friendo

I keep tabs lol

Let me put some discussion in here so it doesn't get deleted:

Euro bumped the southern totals a little. A simple 30-50 mile shift would suffice with no change in the underlying mechanisms. I still like my 2-4" call although my bar is 2"