PivotPoint

33 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Anybody else seeing that both the GFS and ICON seem to holding things back a bit. Their 6z runs now bring the SLP up to Hatteras between hrs 114 and 120. ICON has been hinting at this. Will be interesting to watch. This would support the idea of maybe a front end WAA Saturday night, a dry period and then getting hit by the coastal Sunday afternoon. Something to watch for today. 

 

For instance, here's the GFS at 0z and then 6z. 

 

The exception to the trending theory though is the strength of the SW. That has been a big question mark and simply put a weaker wave will have a tendency to stay south with the confluence it’s fighting against. Disagree?

We gotta be careful this thing doesn’t get too amped. Not wanting to ride that rain/snow line.

Still 3+ days away. Boston is still in the game. Unfortunately 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Around 15 or so would suck but 20 are warning level at least somewhere in the region. Some damn good cherry picking though...lol

 

Talk about leaving work early lol

I put these 500mb frames together for comparative purposes (I know they're not the best maps). I think the GFS/CMC/EURO have been the three that have shown modest run consistency.

At 72 hours out they all look pretty similar with the ridging and low placement so thats a good sign

When you get to 120 you can see GFS is a little quicker, CMC has less confluence which is why you get a less suppressed solution, and Euro keeps the east coast high pressure in a less favorable position over the lakes

So my point being I think the ridge out west is beginning to come into range as to being molded fairly well. One of the big questions is how does the high pressure play out. If we can get it to stay little more relaxed as depicted in the CMC and GFS to an extent, I think we start seeing in the coming model runs a shift of the the best lift and QPF field towards DC/Balt, assuming that the SW holds itself together and the NS doesn't lose its beneficial timing as depicted in the current runs.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

so now the euro has more snow than the GFS. The icon sniffed it out first though

Th icon also shows nada currently lol so can't say it gets any gold stars

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for now...

lol

You know it's not staying down there for long

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Cold powder and still happening...

I'll take this.

I don't know about y'all but my odds are on that the QPF field shifting more north as we get closer. Just a wag that Richmond doesn't see close to a foot out of this. The confluence isn't nearly as strong as the November storm. 

It's a definite improvement. Especially (from what I can see) the handling on the ridge out west. That seemed to be more aligned with the 12z GFS. Which I think is a good sign that the GFS is picking up the players on the field (perhaps better/earlier) than the euro.

The trough still has too much positive tilt but it seems improved on the TT maps FWIW

12z euro small change @72hr with ridge out west not quite as compressed. Hope it translates downstream. Praise the king come on baby

ETA: Never mind toggled the wrong run. Ignore my stupidity above

2 minutes ago, cae said:

Ukie close-up.  About the same as 00z, but a bit better around Roanoke.

Southern VA/Northern NC jackpot again?

Either someone down there has been doing their snow dance or the snow gods are pissed at Ji

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sometimes I think the individual members are more illustrative of where we stand than the mean. This is one of those times. A lot of very solid hits in there. We'll see if it holds. My thoughts are pretty much unchanged from a few days ago. This is the best shot at a moderate event yet, especially down there. I really want to see the Euro and EPS get on board though. 

E4 would debunk all the "snow hole-ist" fanatics out there

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've actually seen the opposite in the mid range. Euro will show an amped up solution and then proceed to trim it back as the leads shorten. Not saying that's the case this time but there have been some infamous euro midrange crush jobs that disintegrated before the short range. 

I can remember one of those last year. Can't remember the exact date but GFS was Dr. No and Euro kept spitting out clown maps up till like 48 hrs prior. Then it finally came in line with GFS and I think we ended up with a mix bag if I remember correctly.

To my point though... I also remember last year or the year before that all the models were on board and euro took its sweet ole time and everyone was freaking out till like, 24 hours before the event till FINALLY the euro came around almost verbatim to the GFS. So it goes both ways. Not sure which way it's skewed towards though. Your impression (skew) is probably the right one though

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, euro has been stubborn with the weak/sheared solution. I like PSU's logic that all southern waves have carried juice this year. Most wasted with rainfall but the seasonal trend has not been for weak/washed out light QPF events. We're all pretty much beggars at this point in the season so any snow will be good snow. It's been a rough first 5-6 weeks of met winter in these parts (and many parts of the conus). 

I for one have seen this happen countless times -- Euro holds out the longest on consolidating the energy and many times will show a shredded out mess at these leads. And seasonal trends have some validity when trying to decipher model output in such a situation, so I'll go along with it... until the 12z euro comes out at least 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Fine with me. 

I'd gladly take that too

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Couldn’t have said it better. I’m happy that it’s going to snow maybe. 2-4” at the low end.  Sold. 

Might be the high end by the end of today's runs

3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Ok. I see where you're coming from. But the point that some people are making here is that the ICON, GGEM, and both GFS's had a more amped coastal idea up until this morning. They all backed off from their previous runs today. Maybe some people don't think that's a trend but I kind of do. It's a trend away from a more amped solution...

Still a ton of time. Wouldn't be suprised if this thing still has one more major change up it's sleeve before game time....for the better or worse. 

I don't disagree with you there.

I guess my point was more that the amped solution is absent largely impart to NS and SS interaction and the timing of confluence. Change anyone of those three variables and the amped solutions could make a reappearance. Albeit, your point is probably that it is unlikely those solutions will come back, to which, I would probably have to agree.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z CMC is still a nice hit... 4-8 for most

It is a nice hit.

CMC does this though... it seems to consolidate these southern stream short waves quicker. Not always how it plays out. I feel the GFS/Euro tend to have higher skill in picking up small details a little better. Makes a big difference with these delicate timing scenarios 

Everyone will be watching 12z euro today thats for sure

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. 

This is accurate. Truth be told (technically speaking) GFS wise there is no trend. If you were to see a trend it would actually be slight improvements in EPS QPF in past 36 hours. Very slight

13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I’m looking at the big picture over a period of several days worth of runs. It’s trending away from a more consolidated coastal storm to one that gets suppressed more south and less impactful. H5 pattern looks different and NS more suppressive, faster flow and shearing aloft in the vort. 

Yea, its hard to argue that. But I have see the globals do the dance before. Timing in the southwest is crucial/trailing wave our our SW's heels/confluence up north that will change model run to model run.

I think we're in that weird window of 4 days out where the players on the field aren't quite in focus jus yet, and we'll see a true trend emerge in the next 3-4 model cycles. 12z GFS was case and point.. it has wavered 3 runs in a row with the how dynamic the SW gets and the confluence up top.

Lots to be ironed out but my bar is 2-3" here in Arlington. Count that a win in my book

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

While I’d be slightly disappointed to see the GFS lose out on this fight, I wouldn’t sniff at 1-3” to start a pattern change.

Those who adopt this type of thinking should start preparing themselves to understand that a pattern change can mean everything for snow or absolutely NOTHING for snow. Plenty of good patterns produce ZILCH in our area. Fact of life in the mid-atlantic 

We need to score when we can score and right now is one of those opportunities... for all we know we could all get goose egged for 3 weeks after our "pattern change". 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Before people analyze the surface and say it's a good run (it is), take a minute to absorb the 5 run upper level trend here... The direction is clear and it's very euroish

You can see the issues clearer with that graphic. Energy is left back in the Southwest and and energy from the NS didn’t phase. 

But the bright side is this is a workable look and if we can keep the southern stream a little more consolidated as game time approaches then there’s enough here to make this work 2-5in.

I wouldn’t be surprised if 0z euro consolidates the SW a little earlier over Texas and finds a middle ground with the GFS. Say 2-4in event for much of the sub forum. I’d be happy 

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. 

Yea, that part isn’t great for sure.

I think you’re right I’d definitely be disappointed if moving forward over next 2-3 days we didnt have some big solutions in the mix.

I currently think (could change) that a more modest solution is the most likely. Either way, I’m hoping for a good track on this one. Been bored with this current pattern, sheesh.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run  we're hoping for

I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario.

Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks good to me unless you live in SE DC

 

If JMA is in then "nuff said"

I too noticed the undercutting on the closed ridge out west. Seems that lower heights are pushing in quickly on the coat tails of our SW.

This is the GFS @108. You can see how the ridge is getting compressed which from a timing perspective effects our system down stream. Specifically, limiting the toughs amplitude to dig and potentially making the whole system more progressive. The current GFS isn't kicking our SW out as quick as the EURO is with its fully closed off ridge solution. 

I'd like to see better spacing of the two southern stream shortwaves or less amped solution of the trailing SW