CAPE

This could be fun lol

These ens mean temperature anomaly maps can sometimes be deceiving, same as h5 maps. The air up in Canada is still pretty cold. There certainly could be a cold shot or 2 over the coming weeks that gets us below normal temps, but it gets somewhat washed out on a mean. Given the advertised pattern, any cold would likely come behind a storm. Big picture is we will have to wait and see how the pattern progression plays out. At this point snow chances for the lowlands are probably on the low side until maybe the last few days of December.

I mentioned this in a post yesterday afternoon- the NPAC trough digging into the GoA needs to weaken/retrograde towards the Aleutians in order to get some cold air in place with storm chances for our region. The extended products have been advertising this occurring in the last week of the month. The last couple GEFS runs depict this process occurring just before Christmas, as does the 0z GEPS. EPS not quite yet.

There likely won't be much if any moisture left by the time the colder air comes in. Places further NW maybe see some snow showers at the end. The GFS and sometimes the 12km NAM seem to overdo this in these situations.

Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon.

Based on traditional metrics maybe. Have you heard the oceans are really warm these days? Temps in Nino 3.4 are quite cool relative to the rest of the Tropical Pacific. RONI > ONI.

It seems unlikely a NPAC trough will persist in a Nina, but who knows. If it does, ideally it retrogrades towards the Aleutians. The weeklies show that progression going forward. The orientation of the ridge as depicted here would probably make it difficult to get a digging shortwave to go neutral/negative until right at the coast/offshore. The period beyond this might be more interesting for storm chances, and probably with colder air in place. Maybe a NYE storm.

Yeah not a Nina h5 look

Way out there, but the 0z EPS and GEFS have a coastal low signal a few days before Christmas.

In the local tv weather person voice- The story of the next 6 days.. warm rain

Remove the word almost and you nailed it.

The magic of the Mongolian High. Not sure how he monitors it other than looking at the model guidance lol.

I like seeing that strip of higher heights to the south with cold in our source region poised to come southward. Not a Nino look but we need cold and Ninos don't bring it lately. As depicted that's a gradient pattern look, with potential waves riding the thermal boundary just to our south. That is uncomplicated and has worked out quite well in recent winters.

Yep. Minus a legit southern stream(although maybe not completely absent), very much so.

And just for the hell of it.. ooh January

Weeklies H5 for the beginning of Jan. Qpf looks avg to slightly above.

New edition of the Euro Weeklies for the last week of Dec-

Not a good surface pressure configuration up top leading in on the GEFS. Pretty much the antithesis of what we want to see. Cold is way back to the NW and comes in after the storm passes. It would take a significant piece of energy that lags behind and moves along the thermal boundary as it shifts to our southeast. One member suggests this is a possibility.

Discombobulated. Doubtful that evolution will be the final outcome lol. That said, this is a thread the needle deal to get snow in the lowlands. Not impossible though.

And after digging a bit (see my post above) 95-96 is considered a moderate event. So all 9 weak events since 1959 produced below avg snow for the DC area. Not that big of a deal to me as any winter can be a ratter these days. I never expect 'normal' snowfall anymore.

My wag is we will have opportunities throughout Jan. Fwiw the Euro weeklies look cold from Jan 1 through Jan 19(end of run). It will go back and forth but some cold shots should continue. Who knows about Feb. CanSIPS suggests we are close to the thermal boundary on avg. That implies some cold periods plus precip chances.

We talkin snow. 95-96 was borderline weak-moderate, so historically not considered weak? Seems to be the case. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm And that is certainly implied in the quoted discussion below. From NOAA ENSO blog- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall

Ok one lol.

Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter.

I usually head to Rehoboth leading up to Christmas. Rooting for a scraper.