CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yeah it looks like we are going to have a weak Nina or a cold neutral during winter at this juncture. This is recent stuff, from a few days ago- https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
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^Easy to imagine how this will go. That EPAC ridge/downstream trough position looks precarious.. but a monster -NAO will save us this time! I wont bother posting it because it sucks beyond words, but the CanSIPS has the h5 look that will probably be much closer to reality, based on our recent run.
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CFS has been on a "good" run lately with looks like these. No qualifiers necessary. We all know the deal with long range climate models.
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Lets get this (pity) party started.
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Imagine being a weather forecaster in SD. For those who just want 'ideal" weather all the time, probably hard to match the climate there.
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We all go through it this time of year. Feast or famine. Learn to love that sprinkler. It is your very good friend.
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Temp down to 84 here now, but still on the humid side. Air is moving a bit, so doesn't feel as bad as earlier.
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2017-18 was literally right at seasonal average in my yard, plus the bomb cyclone beach chase, so cant hate on that. But yeah outside of that, its been pretty lean for cold and snow lately.
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Hard to imagine. I mean less than an inch of snow for almost the entire MA coastal plain? Philly had their most futile snowfall winter ever with 0.3" I think. I will take my chances with a Nina, if that's where we are headed. We can do average snow in a Nina year. The back to back coastals that crushed the beaches in Jan of 17 and 18 happened in Nina winters. Also the Dec storm that is never to be mentioned here(2010) was a good hit for the Delmarva. particularly eastern areas.
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Its almost mid July. About time for a Winter 2020-21 discussion thread isn't it? Never too early to speculate about the next disaster. So many ways to fail..
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88/76
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It's summer. Methinks it is going to continue to be hot and humid for a while. This is what has generally been advertised on the means. Random op runs showing 100+ heat are more believable than when they advertise brutal cold in winter, but still mostly end up wrong.
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That is a big difference. I really like it up there, but not sure I want it for a primary place. The persistent brutal cold would become a drag in the winter. I keep looking around out in the Canaan area. Gotta love the micro climate there, and it is a beautiful area for hiking etc. 130-160" of snow on average without the persistent cold. Sure it rains more and the snow doesn't stick around as long, but I am fine with that.
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I have a friend who lives in Conway NH, and he is always moaning about how little snow he gets there compared to areas nearby. I think that area averages about 80". Whats the average annual snowfall where you are?
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Is that Fay up on the ridge there?
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I don't think there is any particular time since covid. No HH time constraints at home. I try to wait until at least 2 tho. Discipline.
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It's Friday and getting close to HH. That DFH WWS has been in the fridge all week..
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Less is more. Eventually you just shave it. I do it almost everyday. Lather up the head, face. and have at it. Harrys does the whole job very well.
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Latest WPC model discussion. This thing is practically on the doorstep and confidence is below average lol.
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Mount Holly has hoisted a FFW for pretty much their whole forecast area.
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They effed up by making a thread. We know a thing or 2 down here.
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This is interesting, and the degree of interaction with that trough/energy is going to be a factor in the ultimate outcome. And lol even if my yard got 5" of rain from this, if it doesn't rain for a week after, that sprinkler will be getting another workout.
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I concur. Seems the 2 main elements to watch are how rapidly the low gets its act together, and the interplay with the OV energy.
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I think I would have to call it the "ICON camp", as it has been leading the charge with the offshore track/not much precip on west side idea.
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12z 3k NAM and now the 12z Euro also have nice lollies down that way.
