CAPE

I skip the 90.

0z Euro tracks the low further east, with no appreciable precip anywhere in our region. Huge shift from its 12z run. ICON and RGEM are in that camp as well (ICON has been further east for several runs). The GFS and NAMs track the low slightly inland, with heavy rain as far west as I-95. CMC is sort of in the middle, and still has some decent rains for eastern areas. Quite a bit of discrepancy for this range. It will be interesting to monitor the development of the low today. The trough depth/timing is going to have a lot to say about the final outcome, but it seems many more times than not in these setups, the low tracks a bit too far east to have much impact.

ICON has the right idea.

It will track further east in the end and we all will be left high and dry, but with plenty of beer at hand, so all will be well.

I have had 2.50", and I need more lol. My grass needs constant rain for another couple weeks at least to keep it going. Super well drained soil plus lots of big trees robbing moisture and nutrients. Always a struggle. I am in much better shape than this time last year though.

Yeah that's what I noted on the 12z GFS run. The ridge over the Atlantic also looked a bit more robust/west.

Wasn't someone just saying the NAM shall lead the way lol? Euro looks pretty similar to the 12 km, although it NAMS my yard more than the NAM.

I have stepped away from the sprinkler..

Looks a little tighter with the low. Slightly stronger and defo gets the heavier precip further inland this run. Looks like a little more dig with the trough dropping in over the GL and the Atlantic ridge also flexed a bit on this run.

Considering you can probably shift this east 50-100 miles, not a bad idea.

The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture.

Hope all your numbers are good. I just did my annual blood work and have my (remote) appointment to go over the results tomorrow.

Cleared up early here. Even so, I was pleasantly surprised to get a localized cell pop over my area this afternoon. Efficient rain producer.

Its DC man, how can ya not take the over if its close? Daa heeeeat!

LOL Where you at? Davis WV? West Yellowstone?

18z 12km NAM

Just poured a Terrapin Coffee Oatmeal Imperial Stout. HHH!

Skies are brightening here and the rain has let up. Right at 2.50" now for the total since last evening.

Mine get very big and leafy, but dont bloom anymore. Probably not enough sun as the trees have grown over the years. Might move them this fall.

Deluge here currently. Really blossomed overhead. 0.65" so far.

On paper they have really improved the D. Queen should make an immediate impact.

Still painful to think about that game. I had a really bad feeling going into it, and it became a worse nightmare than I imagined.

The warn core/cold core/extra-tropical low- whatever it ends up being- is looking less impactful for our region on latest guidance. Looks like it will start to feel the influence of the approaching trough as it gets to our latitude, and keep most of the action offshore. If the Atlantic ridge flexes a bit more or the timing of the trough approach changes a bit, things could get more interesting. The better chance of heavy rain may come with the actual front over the weekend.

You have had like 10" in the last month lol. How are the skeeters there?

1.68" total here, mostly from the initial round. I guess most of the heavy stuff around midnight moved to the SW of here.