CAPE
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It seems unlikely a NPAC trough will persist in a Nina, but who knows. If it does, ideally it retrogrades towards the Aleutians. The weeklies show that progression going forward. The orientation of the ridge as depicted here would probably make it difficult to get a digging shortwave to go neutral/negative until right at the coast/offshore. The period beyond this might be more interesting for storm chances, and probably with colder air in place. Maybe a NYE storm.
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Yeah not a Nina h5 look
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Way out there, but the 0z EPS and GEFS have a coastal low signal a few days before Christmas.
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In the local tv weather person voice- The story of the next 6 days.. warm rain
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Remove the word almost and you nailed it.
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The magic of the Mongolian High. Not sure how he monitors it other than looking at the model guidance lol.
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I like seeing that strip of higher heights to the south with cold in our source region poised to come southward. Not a Nino look but we need cold and Ninos don't bring it lately. As depicted that's a gradient pattern look, with potential waves riding the thermal boundary just to our south. That is uncomplicated and has worked out quite well in recent winters.
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Yep. Minus a legit southern stream(although maybe not completely absent), very much so.
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And just for the hell of it.. ooh January
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Weeklies H5 for the beginning of Jan. Qpf looks avg to slightly above.
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New edition of the Euro Weeklies for the last week of Dec-
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Not a good surface pressure configuration up top leading in on the GEFS. Pretty much the antithesis of what we want to see. Cold is way back to the NW and comes in after the storm passes. It would take a significant piece of energy that lags behind and moves along the thermal boundary as it shifts to our southeast. One member suggests this is a possibility.
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Discombobulated. Doubtful that evolution will be the final outcome lol. That said, this is a thread the needle deal to get snow in the lowlands. Not impossible though.
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And after digging a bit (see my post above) 95-96 is considered a moderate event. So all 9 weak events since 1959 produced below avg snow for the DC area. Not that big of a deal to me as any winter can be a ratter these days. I never expect 'normal' snowfall anymore.
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My wag is we will have opportunities throughout Jan. Fwiw the Euro weeklies look cold from Jan 1 through Jan 19(end of run). It will go back and forth but some cold shots should continue. Who knows about Feb. CanSIPS suggests we are close to the thermal boundary on avg. That implies some cold periods plus precip chances.
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We talkin snow. 95-96 was borderline weak-moderate, so historically not considered weak? Seems to be the case. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm And that is certainly implied in the quoted discussion below. From NOAA ENSO blog- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall
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Ok one lol.
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Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter.
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I usually head to Rehoboth leading up to Christmas. Rooting for a scraper.
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That's part of it. A lot of it has to do with the shortwave timing/degree of interaction/phasing upstream. I liked the Euro evolution at 12z. Very close to a good outcome. It will all change many times over the coming days ofc.
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What a friendly trend. We have 8 more dayzzzzzz
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It's better but not there. More confluence at h5 with a better surface High position to the north; low track a bit further east.
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Looks even better just beyond this.
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19 here
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No aspect of a forecast is accurate a month+ out on modeled simulations, but that is especially true of snow forecasts. Best you can do is maybe glean the potential for a cold pattern and the tendency for it to be wetter/drier than average.
