CAPE

This is just a week or so away.

Better interaction/a bit of phasing leads to a more robust shortwave for the 4th, pops a coastal low and we get a bit of snow. This could trend better going forward.

Yeah, we need more shitting up of the discussion threads.

lol You do this all the time. Your schtick, I know.

I got 1-3 so I didn't post lol.

Since it is our earliest shot at precip with some colder air in place, I took a peak at the 6z GEFS members for the Jan 3-5 window, and there are a half dozen or so that produce frozen precip. 3 significant- 2 for our area and one that misses south, and a few others that would be something minor. The rest are dry/offshore.

A minor event for Jan 3-4 is still a possibility, and would likely be our first chance of frozen coming out of the mild period. Ens means are still hinting, specifically the GEFS and CMC ens. Shortwave energy is there on the op runs, just a matter if a piece can sharpen up soon enough to get some precip going.

I know. He needs scolding once in awhile, as futile as it is.

If you really want to know stop looking at the surface. All you care about is seeing blue though, and whinging when you don't. It all happens upstairs. Relatively minor differences in timing/interactions between shortwaves can make a big difference in sensible weather for a given locale, and there are going to be differences between operational cycles at range because each iteration gets a fresh set of initial parameters to integrate/extrapolate, and the further out in time the model does that, the more likely there will be a different outcome at particular time/place than than the previous cycle.

Both the GEFS and EPS depict significant vorticity in the southern stream around the 8th- indication of a digging shortwave, which correlates to a surface low near the SE coast.

The 0z EPS has a Miller B signal for the 6th, and then another potential wave beyond that. Jan 6-10 looks very active on on the mean. A little too soon and don't have time to pore over the individual members for details, but this run definitely does not look dry.

Strong signal for an east coast storm on the 0z GEFS for the 8-9 window.

Big picture reminder- Of all the indices we track, historically a -AO, especially when combined with a -NAO, correlates to higher probability for cold and increased chances for snow for the DC area. All guidance forecasts -AO/NAO in addition to a neutral/+PNA and -EPO for early Jan. No guarantees as we always need some luck with timing, but this gives us a hell of a chance to achieve the desired outcome, entering prime time snow climo.

The 7-10 period is active on the GEFS. Looks like possibly 3 different events on the mean but some of that is differences with timing among members.

Yeah the 9th-10th. Euro has it too but its a bit more convoluted/further north.

12z GFS and Euro with snow on the 9th.

This is probably a nitpick but the h5 look depicted in the LR on the GEFS has a broader 'bowl' shaped trough with the ridge axis a bit further west, while the latest EPS runs have a more prominent Aleutian trough with the downstream ridge/trough configuration shifted a bit eastward. The GEFS look would seem more conducive to getting earlier low pressure development with a track right along the east coast. The EPS depiction could have more of a tendency for offshore low pressure.

3 games in 11 days coming off the bye. 3-0 All dominant wins. LFG!

MV3!!

No left fade lately. Just down the middle.

Anyone feeling sorry for the Steelers fans? The Chiefs might actually be very good right now, despite the smoke and mirrors routine for much of the season, not looking great and getting every call and every break. And Mahomes is always money when it counts.

There is still a storm signal for the 4th on the 12z GEFS, but a bit weaker than the last 2 runs.

It's cold, it's gray. Actually feels like Christmas day. Enjoy the holidays everyone.

Snowstorm on the 8th then the avocado drops.

There is one monster hit, but there are 4 or 5 others with frozen for the MA plus one that's suppressed south. Pretty solid signal on 2 of the last 3 GEFS runs for a potential D9-10 event.