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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. That's the way I would interpret it if you're referring to the GFS. The 6z Euro actually partially phases a piece of that NS energy.
  2. The 0z Canadian tracks the primary low further north than current runs of the GFS and Euro. Part of the reason has to do with that shortwave tracking southeastward in southern Canada I mentioned in an earlier post- look where the CMC has that NS energy as the storm is approaching. Notably further north than other guidance at that point. Results in weaker confluence and allows the low to come further north.
  3. The run to run variations on the storm track we are seeing on guidance are pretty minor, but for those on the N or S edge it can make a big difference. The primary feature to watch is the piece of vorticity rotating down in southern Canada overtop our approaching shortwave. Some runs it digs a bit more, or comes in right on top or out in front/just behind. The timing and degree of interaction between that energy and our storm will influence the exact track.
  4. Hints of a little enhanced lift on the west side of the developing offshore low via an inverted trough
  5. The advertised look for mid month looks prime for a major east coast snowstorm. The 0z GEFS 13-16th window is active.
  6. It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW.
  7. All the latest model runs have 6" here. I'm way good with that.
  8. Some crazy ass h5 looks we are seeing. Mid month and its snowing on the Gulf coast here verbatim. I doubt it lol. More likely a setup for our KU.
  9. HNY weather weenies. Shocked I am still conscious.
  10. I like that eastward extension over my yard. 6" is nothing to sneeze at. I'm told.
  11. I'll take it and run with more chances to come. Hell yeah.
  12. NFL MVP disco- Weird but it seems only QBs can win it now, and it has become almost exclusively stats driven. That being the case, Lamar Jackson should win it. I don't like that criteria, but if that's it, the Josh Allen love among many pundits doesnt make sense. If there are other considerations, then maybe he is in the discussion, but then why isnt Sam Darnold, or Jared Goff? One of them would be just as deserving as Allen if other factors like team wins were considered. I guess the perception is- it is just Josh Allen's time? Lol that's arbitrary crap.
  13. I've smoked some weed, drank a couple big ass stouts.. hoping I will still be conscious in another hour.
  14. And on NYE.. fuck yeah. Like going to a Killers or Strokes concert. Must experience it at least once in life.
  15. An atmospheric block involves both a ridge and a trough. The NAO block is typically a Rex configuration- the ridge up top and the trough/vortex to the south. Self sustaining once established. eta- (technical) Energy in the atmosphere is carried in troughs(vorticity) so that drives the flow, and ridges form downstream( to conserve mass and absolute vorticity). Once the block is established, it takes energy(shortwaves) feeding into the trough to sustain it. One way our lovely NAO block will break down is if the upstream pattern shifts- the EPO ridge breaks down/TPV recedes, decreasing vorticity impulses in the flow moving into the trough component of the block.
  16. This 'event' got a mention in the latest AFD from Mount Holly- On Friday, an upper trough with strong shortwave energy approaches from the west. Weak low pressure develops at the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians and dives into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday. Some snow may develop over Delmarva and extreme southeast New Jersey, but QPF looks to be light, so not expecting much in the way of accumulation. Cold air will be locked in place over the region with highs in the 20s and 30s.
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