CAPE

2.24" total for the day. Weed lawn should be looking good.

First day of MA Fall!

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Kent County in central Delaware... Central Caroline County in eastern Maryland... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 1054 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have already fallen in spots. An additional inch is possible. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Dover, Smyrna, Milford, Denton, Harrington, Camden, Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Cheswold, Bowers, and Goldsboro.

Seems to be slowly winding down now. Still some moderate rain falling. Up to 1.85" for the day. 0.3" of that fell with the quick storm that rolled through earlier.

Probably some flash flooding happening here. One of the mesos had this depicted pretty well- might have been the 3k NAM. Highly charged storm. Power hanging on for now.

Its rockin' here now. Lots of T&L and pouring. This really blossomed just to my SW for once, instead of dying on the doorstep.

Caught the northern edge of that broken line moving across over here. Booming thunder and heavy rain but didn't last long. Picked up a quick quarter inch.

Stop panicking lol. This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

Old news Chuck.

A bit different when there is a trough with a legit front moving through. Storms should be able to sustain even after max heating. Unfortunately for those who were hoping for more widespread significant rain, this is going to be moving through quickly, so its one shot and done. The Ridgely to Goldsboro dead zone watch is in effect though.

Could still get a splitter lol. Whether I get 2" or a tenth, it wont make much difference in the ultimate outcome for the grass, but a good storm with some booming T&L would be fun. Seems like its been forever. The remnants of Elsa late last week was a good soaker, but totally boring otherwise.

There will be definite winners and losers today, but across guidance there is no real agreement on exact location. Should be fun lol.

Might get a local chase in later and get a shot of a shelf. If I'm lucky, might only have to walk down to the end of the driveway.

HI is 106. Good day to sit inside in the AC drinking a stout.

Brutal.

Total for July here is 2.7" so far. Somehow the date setting on my station got messed up.

Just looked at my rain gauge and almost 6.5" for the month. Not sure how that happened. I thought it was closer to 3. I will have to check some local stations.

93/74 This may be the grossest day of the summer here.

Must have been a severely -AO.

Sunday into Monday is questionable- depending on the exact location of the front there could be some rain esp along the coast. Beyond that, there will be a trough in place with embedded shortwaves aloft moving through, so there will be some chances for scattered showers/storms from time to time, probably afternoon/evening stuff for the most part. No indication of any washouts on current guidance.

Icon, NAM, and CMC still have a second round Sunday into Monday. The slower guidance have the WA ridge hanging on a bit longer. Might be more realistic given the time of year.

WPC seems to favor the slower progression, as days 2,3,4 all show precip, gradually shifting east through the area.

Maybe if you buy the GFS. It more aggressively brings the trough east, and it has the front to our south by later Sunday. The rain would be from late Sat into Sunday morning verbatim, and the next perturbation would result in rain to our south. Most other guidance hold the trough back to the west longer with a slower progression of the front, so there would be at least 2 rounds of possible rain for our region.

LR GEFS and EPS continue to advertise a general trough over the eastern US, with h5 ridge in the western/central US. Atlantic ridge is relatively weak and well east. That would keep the big heat/humidity combo at bay, maybe through the end of the month.