CAPE

Yup thats what I have been expecting all along. I am hoping for the back end thump with the deform band per the 12z op run.. Anything at the front end will be washed away most likely.

18z EPS is a touch colder at 850 and surface overall- the duration of above 0 850 temps is shorter compared to 12z. My yard only gets to a max of 41at the surface compared to 43 at 12z lol. Trending!

I thought it looked a tad weaker too. Not sure what it means later. Might be noise. Overall everything looked the same.

There really should be no "bar", or threshold for disappointment, when most of us did not even crack an inch last winter.

Looked almost the same as the Euro op to me.

Yours is coming in Jan. Its become a Nina tradition. We just need to get rid of this silly fake Nino-ish pattern. I will be chasing, as always.

Is DT back with a sock? WTF?

You are gonna get fringed on this one.

At least SNE gets pummeled.

Now THAT is a forum divider.

Me too. I am at -8.

GFS PARA and ICON have been pretty similar.

Nice! That is how its done.

I'm good. I live on the central eastern shore at an elevation of 60 feet. We rain.

..to not a single flake lmao.

Eh its one GFS op run. There were also hints on the EPS though. I am in good shape because my expectations were already super low.

HH GFS is going to send the entire board into a drinking binge.

He called for a back loaded winter. And I don't think anyone doubts he is knowledgeable. That is not the issue.

A girl has no name?

Yeah, who really cares.

I have some egg nog spiked with rum, bourbon, and brandy. Can only drink this shit between Thanksgiving and New years. Its a rule.

CAPE knows 39

Just updated AFD from Mount Holly- The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day. The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland.

Take a pic when its done. I was way into low and slow smoking but got out if it. Another one of those love of labor things lol. I'd smoke a shoulder over hickory for 6-8 hours then finish it off in the oven in a pan with some beer. It was done when I could pull the blade bone out with no resistance, and separate the meat with a dinner fork. No slicing.

Always beer-30 somewhere.