CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Is that the first guess? First call? Final guess? Last call?
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Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol. Although it gives us some back end snow.
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Been drinking nothing but Stouts. Needed a change up. Bought a 4 pack of this stuff a week ago. Try the 10w-40 from Hi-Wire if you haven't already. Super good.
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Waiting for the HH NAM, for some reason lol. Good stuff.
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It's really big, but it's not slow.
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2 runs in a row the CMC has a damn near perfect track.
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dw your yard will get pooped on. not runny either.
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Yes. If the block was more expansive towards the western Atlantic, that 50-50 low would be crawling, and we would probably have just enough suppression.
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LOL just said that in my reply to nj2va.
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The block is really just getting established, so that wouldn't apply in this case. The main issue to me is the degree of amplification/trough orientation, and how it interacts with the area of confluence to our NE. The ridging over Greenland as depicted is not very expansive either, and focused a tad north of where I would like to see it. Inland at elevation this is not as critical. eta- lol i thought you were referring to next week. my reply is in regards to the midweek storm.
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Almost exactly the same position as 0z run, but a tad weaker.
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Its not as good a run as 0z. Mean snowfall 2" along I-95 for the mid/late week storm. eta- could be a bit more with the back edge of precip near DC at hour 144.
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Still super marginal with temps at 850 and surface, but trending in the right direction. Maybe a wet paste job.
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Plenty of ground fog and heavy frost. Low of 29 but 31 this morning.
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Yeah we could use a few more that have snow in my yard.
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Not a big believer in the Monday event producing much frozen for the lowlands at this juncture. If the heavier precip gets further north, probably a better chance for the nw burbs..
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6z GEFS early week deal.
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Just looking over the 0z runs. Overall good stuff for the mid week potential. For I-95/east the CMC op has pretty much an ideal outcome for a mid December storm. Good track, doesn't amp too much/go negative, and the confluence is not displaced so the surface high ends up in a pretty ideal spot. Still a long way to go.
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33 at 8PM
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One of my go to places has a few bottles left from a year ago on sale. I have been bypassing it for other stouts, but tomorrow might be the day I pick it up.
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Recent runs seem to be moving away from that idea. Stay tuned!
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Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know.
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Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.
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