CAPE

You westerners can over-perform on the heavy rain for a change. I'll take the max on the snow showers tomorrow.

I got one out of two. Good enough. Cheers!

What time does HH begin on Xmas eve? Asking for a friend.

12z GFS looks more robust with the snow squalls.

Winds starting to crank up here ahead of the rain. Definitely gusting over 25. Temp up to 62.

That narrow W-E band has been persistent on most guidance, and pretty much in that same location, although it looks overdone on the HRRR. Need a slight shift northward!

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

I think the persistence of the -AO as we move forward into our colder climo period is the key for getting some decent cold down here. If the EPO/WPO stays positive, a bit of PNA ridge at the right time may help keep energy from digging in too far west and amplifying. The (apparently) inevitable SWE is also a wildcard that may shuffle the longwave pattern some. I am hoping it primarily reinforces the -AO and the tendency for blocking. If the Nina is on the decline, maybe we get a bit of help in the EPO domain going forward.

Still waiting for the NA block to evolve, and park in the ideal position. Then we can start to get an idea how effective it will be in mitigating the less than favorable Pacific. We should know in about 10 days!

Its almost exactly the same everywhere east of the mountains(a bit less out there at 18z).

18z Euro has the localized S MD/Lower Eastern shore snow band that most other guidance has Xmas evening.

Wind! Outside of heat, we can do some impressive wind, esp in winter. Mount Holly- Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 80-90 kt Thursday night, but there should be a decent enough inversion to keep the strongest winds aloft. However, with heavy rain, most of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. With the LLJ now tracking a bit farther west than previously shown, will spread some of the stronger winds back to the west as well. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well as along the Delaware beaches in Sussex county, Delaware. Going farther to the west, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph back through most of New Jersey, Delaware, and into Philadelphia and western suburbs. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for coastal New Jersey and the immediate Atlantic facing Delaware coast. Will hoist a Wind Advisory for the I-95 corridor of New Jersey, Philadelphia and western suburbs, and the rest of Delaware and the eastern shores of Maryland.

Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that.

It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough.

Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening. Might have to do a flizzard chase.

Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts

Looks a lot like my display pic. Dec 2009.

Yeah I saw it was dry. I am just playin' a bit. Realistically we are probably 10 days away from a legit snow chance. Probably the 3rd to the 5th of Jan. Subject to change ofc. But that's how it looks right now.

Why would he post about a 10% chance of an inch in prime climate Because he always posts those silly maps. And yeah this one really sucks! Wind you up?

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet.

Nina vs Nino background state is one difference. Pac is inherently more hostile to our snow chances during a typical Nina, although this may be less of a factor now and moving forward.

It will go in the books as warm. Probably 50s if not 60s for the morning "high". Front looks legit though. Probably wont hit freezing most places on Saturday.

Then take a blowtorch and char the outside.

Yeah I mentioned this in the banter thread after the 18z GFS run yesterday. Had a nice band all the way to the coast. Just missed my yard by a few miles verbatim. Maybe the Mesos will pin down the exact location over the next several runs- or take it away lol.