CAPE

The LR ensembles are suggesting some improvement in the EPAC, with the trough weakening some/retrograding, and a developing EPO ridge. That would provide a mechanism to redirect the flow, and inject some colder air. This seems to be the way things are evolving, but it will likely take some time. I can see some folks getting impatient because there will likely be a favorable west-based block for a time, without necessarily seeing more favorable outcomes. The evolution of the SWE probably increases the uncertainty on ultimate longwave pattern evolution, and how much colder we get going forward. It appears that the -AO/NAO will have persistence, so that's one big box checked on the list for winter weather in this region.

Climo plus some EPO/PNA help at the right time, in conjunction with a persistent -AO/NAO should get it done. If that happens and we still fail, we really do suck and need to move to NNE.

I remember as a kid watching those fat flakes falling and knowing I had to resist looking at it or it would stop.

Everything was fine until PSU showed up trying to be all logical and stuff.

Cold and dry, warm and wet. That we can do! Ofc we all know these super LR tools are large scale, general idea stuff, and have low resolution. Given that, I like it.

Thanks Deb.

Yeah I think 2, maybe 3 weeks out from initialization gives a reasonable idea of where the pattern is heading. Hopefully it ends up close!

My favorite panel from the latest Weeklies. Hard to get a better h5 look than this. Very Nino-ish.

Except many of our epic snowstorms have occurred beyond that date.

Pretty much lol. But if it looks good, we weenie!

The only "not great" h5 panel I saw was the very end of the run, around Feb 12, and we know what that's worth.

Friday night is still Friday. To be clear, I bet your yard is at least 50 by midnight. eta- if it maxes out in the upper 40s, I still win, since you claimed upper 30s.

Be patient lad. It ain't happening in the next 3 days.

Warm will never be denied when a storm tracks that far NW.

Temps will rise Fri night into Sat morning. Most places will be well into the 50s and possibly 60s for eastern areas.

I bet you see at least 50 on Friday.

Neutral? More of a -WPO, but I will take that all the same.

The nerds can tell us when its happening, since we just cant know.

The new edition of the Euro weeklies think the west based -NAO is gonna be around awhile.

This DFH 120 min IPA seems lonely sitting there in the fridge among the stouts. I'll rectify the situation.

He was a one year starter in college and was a project. Maybe worth a chance in the third round. Only Snyder lol.

Multiple sources reporting it, so that's a yes.

Haskins released.

My post was only in response to the discussion of the GEPS depiction for late week/early next week, specifically the post directly above mine. I am pretty optimistic overall about the way things look on the means going forward at this point. The exact SSW impacts shall be interesting to see play out.