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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals.
  2. CAPE
    Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win.
  3. CAPE
    GFS still pretty gung ho keeping the primary low dominant and intact, and has a decent event in southern NY state lol. Pretty much on its own.
  4. CAPE
    Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days. I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins.
  5. CAPE
    Finally a legit wintry day. Low 30s. some flurries, and windy. Time to get the woodstove going.
  6. CAPE
    If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some.
  7. CAPE
    No. Suppression has to do with the blocking pattern, not ENSO state.
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    I get it. Its odd. But I have accepted that it's just not very cold despite the favorable HL pattern. The reasons can be debated elsewhere I guess.
  10. CAPE
    I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established.
  11. CAPE
    The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.
  12. CAPE
    Actually I think its says -2.5. Ok I'll buy that.
  13. CAPE
    I was going to save this 120 for tomorrow...oh well. 18z NAM looks "icy" Still thinks my yard is going to max out on the little snow that falls lol. We know that cant be right.
  14. CAPE
    Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'. NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.
  15. CAPE
    Its been the mid 90s since that happened for the lowlands. 2 events in the same winter but I forget the exact year. One had a bunch of sleet and freezing rain. It was a disaster even over here.
  16. CAPE
    Almost all of the members that got good snow here were warmish/rainy to start. Not many southern tracks either. Still pretty far out, but it appears this will have to evolve almost perfectly wrt to strength and track. What else is new?
  17. CAPE
    He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU.
  18. CAPE
    I'll take it verbatim.
  19. CAPE
    Yeah that's not happening. The deal is getting heavier precip at the beginning, and maximizing on frozen. Once it goes to rain, with temps at 32, its just rain.
  20. CAPE
    We can hope!
  21. CAPE
    And no I dont believe that blue over my yard. I have been NAMed tho, such that it is with an event like this lol.
  22. CAPE
  23. CAPE
    Our shot at frozen is very dependent on the intensity of precip as it comes in. Much better/more expansive eastward on the NAM this run.
  24. CAPE
    I know these surface p-type maps tend to be wonky, but it aligns with the cooling aloft.
  25. CAPE
    12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain. Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of front end snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Hints of some drier air from the NE and some evap cooling maybe.
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