CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Like a Kingda Ka rollback.
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But he has said those things on here, so you were being a bit of an instigator with that post.
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People still cant figure out how to reply without including the attachments of the OP. What a scrolling nightmare.
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It's not that it left its mark. It is still occurring. Until that NE PAC trough weakens and retrogrades, and the PAC jet relaxes, the puke continues to flow into our source region. That happens right around mid month and as the PNA/EPO ridge develops, the fire hose is pinched off and we have a mechanism to inject polar air southward.
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Another cloudy day. I think yesterday was the only day this week that was mostly sunny. Good to know it can still snow in NC.
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Yeah that goes without saying lol.
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Make it heavy too.
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Seems like it hasn't rained for awhile. My driveway looks pretty normal. It's gotten dry, but not too cold. We cant even do that right anymore.
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Seeing hints of the EPAC ridge strengthen/retrograde into its typical Nina happy place towards day 15 on the ens means. That would favor some troughing out west. Long way off, and even with some signs of that on the means, the -AO/NAO/EPO are still there. Hell, the way things are going so far, we could use a bit of a SE ridge.
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0z EPS. Its something, but this seems to be evolving much like this week's event, only weaker.
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No I don't think so. Sounds good.
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Yeah the next few days begins the transition from Pac flood to injection of Polar air into our source region and then southward.
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Its never good when the laymen folk start talking about the polar vortex...since they don't have a fukking clue what it actually is.
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Blue Ball-oons?
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Yeah I know. You are addicted to those wonky surface p-type maps. It all starts upstairs though.
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If this look verifies, and we do, well, you know what that means... Lucky for you, where you are moving, you won't notice it quite as much lol. Just watch out for those cat 4/5 storms.
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So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising.
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A strong jet streak moving into a developing trough argues for more amplification and slower progression, and less of a tendency for progressive/flatter. That is sort of meteo 101 stuff, but it might be the case where the models don't quite have a handle on this yet.
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I wish I could have been a little unlucky instead of a lot unlucky then.
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Can always thread a needle, and that was pretty marginal. You didn't have to go too far east find just another cold rain event.
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I get it. I am still in shutout mode here lol. I was looking at the Pac jet on the GEFS this morning, and early in the run, it's split and the northern component is still straight into Canada, with the southern part well to our south. That looks odd and not conducive to storms here, esp not cold ones. That changes in a major(and favorable) way by the end of the run.
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I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO. It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.
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Huge difference in our nearby source region. And LR 2m temps verbatim are the lolz
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The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks, I am all for getting some legit cold in here.
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Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.
