CAPE

18z Euro looking maybe a tad more suppressed than 12z.

Just juicing up a bit pretty much gets the whole region into the good precip shield. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I cant see this amplifying too much more given the flow and the configuration at h5. Maybe a slight tick NW, which is about all I can afford here lol.

Left rear quad looks favorably placed. Hope this pretty much holds as is.

Air flow converges into the base of a trough, then diverges, or accelerates out of it (just east of the vorticity max at h5) and you can also see this by looking aloft at the jet streak.

Next panel

I would tend to agree, but there is still a fast flow and it would seem amplification will be somewhat limited, this is going to be in and out in less than 12 hours, and it appears it will occur late late Sat night into early Sunday, so that sort of evens things out a bit.

This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that.

But you can say this 9 out of10 times there is a chance of snow. Be adventurous and daring. Chiefs by 17!

Yeah there is some moisture available ahead of the Arctic press. I know some here live in fear of cold and dry but not me. I will take my chances. Love the idea of a moderate cold powder event followed by some Siberian cold. Been awhile. Chasing a KU in the MA in a Nina is pretty low probability, and it may still happen beyond this as things relax up top.

Been busy today so just looking over the means. Goddamn this is a radical look. Wow.

Like this?

Continuing those contours over this way there was probably a sloppy inch or 2. I guess in the context of what was going on before and after, it was easily forgettable.

Huh. No recollection. Must have been rain here lol.

I thought the one after the late Jan event was the first of the 2 big storms in Feb.

This one might be the "collective will" event that @North Balti Zen posted about.

Nah I haven't created a storm thread since the last one I started ended in a train derailment. Let the mods take care of it.

Y'all thought I was kidding with my 'keep hope alive' post yesterday after the HH GEFS came out.

6z EPS suggesting highs in the 30s on Monday, in the wake of the storm that may happen.

I get that, but the point I was making is that over here the historical snowfall avg is not much different than places along and east of I-95 west of the bay. It gets better right along and then ofc much better west of the fall line.

That part of his post was overstating it. Last year sucked for the whole region, but going forward, snow climo here may well become worse.

lol I was just having a bit of fun at your expense. I know my climo here, and what is ideal for my yard is not necessarily what you want to see, but it is not all that rare either. Long term avg snowfall here is higher than DC, at 18.5". There are many times I have gotten moderate or even significant snow that have left places NW of I-95 high and dry. Happened in Jan of 2017 and 18 most recently. Both of those events had legit cold air in place. That tends to even things out a bit, because clearly being further inland is better much of the time.

Its well NW.

Razor thin margin for victory for eastern areas.. A rain/snow mix or snow tv does nothing for me at this juncture. Blocking galore so far but I am not even half way to median snowfall. As it stands now it looks like the chances for any legit cold is delayed until late next week.