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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Still looks like we could be set up for a decent period heading into March, IF the blocking verifies and is even a bit stronger. Pretty good indication of enough confluence where one or more waves ejecting eastward could take a favorable track. If the blocking doesn't materialize or is weaker, the SE ridge will end up bulging northward with the advertised EPAC look.
  2. CAPE
    I am gonna guess just about all of it falls as liquid anywhere south of central PA, although some of it may freeze on contact in the far NW fringes of our subforum.
  3. CAPE
    Bring the mild and rain. With the trough well west and the HL block breaking down, there is really no chance of snow for the lowlands this week. Models like to depict crippling ice storms at range in these setups, but like I said the other day, it almost never happens over here. Thankfully.
  4. CAPE
    You have a place up in PA or NY state?
  5. CAPE
    27 here this morning with a bit of fog and frz drizzle.
  6. CAPE
    28 with light zr still falling. Looks like Mount Holly was close to going with ISW here... We`ve increased the planar ice accumulation totals up to near 0.25" which is bordering on ice storm warning conditions. We`ve opted not to issue an ice storm warning mainly due to the impacts we were not seeing earlier combined with a look at the road/sub surface temps.
  7. CAPE
  8. CAPE
    Pretty impressive looking out there now.
  9. CAPE
    Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that.
  10. CAPE
    Tony Pann needs to feed his fan nerds.
  11. CAPE
    Pretty marginal. If it were to continue well into tonight, they might.
  12. CAPE
    29 here now. Tree branches look pretty. Harmless so far. Just the way I like it.
  13. CAPE
    ermahgerd ice storm.
  14. CAPE
    It turns out 30 degree rain in mid Feb during the day is mostly just rain. Some light slushy ice coating deck railings etc, but most surfaces just wet. Might be more interesting if it is still precipitating later.
  15. CAPE
    Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week.
  16. CAPE
    It's called MYASS
  17. CAPE
    A lot like December and much of January.
  18. CAPE
    Lets hope they are equally wrong about where the pattern heads by the end of the month. If that's the way its going, we may have a chance or 2 as the longwave pattern progresses east beginning late next week and before it transitions to full on Nina Pac dumpster fire.
  19. CAPE
    lol I was just looking at that.
  20. CAPE
    I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast.
  21. CAPE
    Unless temps drop some, the mid Feb sun radiating through the clouds should mitigate it somewhat. This evening and overnight would pose a bigger risk.
  22. CAPE
    Light rain just started here. Temp up to 30. It will be interesting to see just how much of it freezes during the daytime. Don't think roads will be much of a problem here.
  23. CAPE
    "Normal" temps for late Feb.
  24. CAPE
    Same here. To be expected this time of year even with the clouds, unless temps are way below freezing. It seemed to continue overnight, mostly in the areas that receive the most sun exposure, but wet soil conditions and no real cold to freeze the top layer leading in doesn't help.
  25. CAPE
    I lost a little more snow overnight with temps in the upper 20s. Mid Feb sun and moist, unfrozen soil doing the work.
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