CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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I got a lot more than I expected. Weaker/slower developing system and easterly flow FTL.
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Wasted 0.22" on rain here. White rain now lol. Some big flakes coming down but still too warm to stick. Down to 35.
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Snow mixing in here now finally. Temp is 36.
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Winds have shifted from straight out of the east to more NE now that the low is getting going. Temp dropped a degree. See what happens now. Maybe..
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Yup. I just have a feeling once the low gets going, the best forcing/bands will develop more to my east over DE and SNJ. Models have trended that way. Hopefully I can get in on some of it.
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Yeah this is the key for the coastal plain a bit later. Always has been, but with a weaker system than previously forecast, and somewhat more easterly track, it remains to be seen where and to what extent this occurs.
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I can verify this statement lol.
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I am more concerned about my rain gauge not working right. Still on a pretty good streak with precip over here, even if it is mostly liquid lol.
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There is enough of an easterly flow at lower levels with the coastal forming to keep the surface on the mild side for now. For places near and east of the bay have to wait until the low gets going and see where the best banding sets up. Given the projected further east track of the low, I am not really feeling it for here.
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Seems like it has been raining pretty hard here but only 0.04" showing on my station. I need to check my rain gauge.
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Time to break out the SREFs
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I think there will be some good banding later this morning/early afternoon, but most of the mesos seem to focus it mostly east/se of my yard. Could easily envision a rain snow mix here with accumulating snow over in S DE.
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38 and just started raining here. Actually warmer than when I went to bed. Have to see how things play out with the area of fgen forcing. Need that good lift. Without the rates, could end up with mostly snow tv here.
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Some people, maybe.
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Blame snow maps. Or model uncertainty. Oh the horror. Always messing with my emotions. What can't these blasted things be perfect.
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And..it is actually going to snow. I don't see a single model or forecast that suggests otherwise.
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lol no idea. I don't pay much attention the the HRRR ever. What good is a hi res rapid update model that shows something different almost every run?
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The high temp today isn't really relevant. It is currently 37 here with a dp of 26. I have seen plenty of snow events start with temps in the mid to upper 30s.
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It will look different in less than an hour. Might be worse.
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I am not a gambler, unless having a 401k counts. Guess I should have googled that one lol.
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Oh well. I fuccked that up.
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For you friend.
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I am burned out on snow maps. Summon WB WW.
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lol its killing him. 5.2 for my yard
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Yes, other than right at onset in the lowlands. As has been discussed all day, the immediate surface is the only warm layer, and it is a thin slice.
