CAPE

Yeah this has trended colder at the surface, at least. The warm nose aloft is one issue, and that is a beast on the NAMs, the other is how this storm is morphing from a nice front end thump to a one-two punch sort of a deal. There will likely be an area that largely misses out on both if that verifies. The front end is where it is at for places further south/east because there will be legit cold/dry air in place. Just need the goddamn precip to come in hot and heavy to mitigate the warming aloft for a few hours. If it is delayed or light, forget it.

I will keep hugging the Para until it screws me. Coming soon..

Mylar Wizard DIPA for HH. Another good one from Black Flag.

I know where my yard is. I tracked this thing and contributed, but now is the time to stay in banter for me. I will take my sleet, fr rain, and probably plain rain, and like hate it.

NAM is a sleet/zr bomb for most verbatim.

Need a far NW burb thread for these kinds of events.

The Para is my favorite.

This is an improvement from the 0z run with the heavier precip coming in through the DC area. 850s are getting warmish already during this time though. Maybe heavier precip can keep it mostly snow.

colder trends, more sleet doe. might end up more snow doe. i doubt it, because i am a negative nancy.

Overall trends are colder, with the coastal low more dominant and taking a pretty good track. Need the waa on the front end to come in fast and be furious in order for the lowlands to have a fighting chance at some snow accumulation before the warm nose intrudes. NW areas are looking good as usual.

Yeah I thought it looked great up top and out in front. Tad slower though. 0z will be telling. And yes great post by him. He continues to impress.

lol I realize that.

Garbage run here. Toss.

Pretty good stuff. Not a huge milk stout fan but that one is nice. You know I prefer the high gravity imperials.

lol ofc they are.

SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote.

Perpetual is always good. I would be totally into that choco cherry stout.

No heat pump. Better have a woodstove or a generator.

eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow.

This is a pretty flawed set up. Might just get it done. We have seen plenty of textbook ones manage to shit the bed. Pretty typical lol.

Good run, if you ignore the dumb snow maps. Actually took snow away from me and placed it further south. Who cares. Good thump and cold when it counts.

I guess my expectations were so low I just have no reason to hand wring over how this goes. My snowpack died today for the most part, so nothing to protect, and given the hostile look for the coastal plain just a few days ago, whatever frozen I get I am fine with. The NAM might have the right idea, and if it does, so be it. Then I get 90% rain as I expected anyway lol. Given the trends on almost all other guidance though, I think it is most likely the NAM being the NAM at range, and is probably out to lunch.