CAPE

Lookin' pretty good. I will take the under now ofc.

Soo are we tracking the next fail yet? Is there even one to track?

I saw the post but missed the aftermath, although it was predictable what was coming.

That dead zone/precip fork a lot of guidance was hinting at is showing up nicely.

I didn't even look at the 0z runs, but when the Euro goes dry towards game time it usually is correct.

Already in a precip hole lol. Light sleet and snizzle.

No denying the LLJ and warming aloft.

So the gfs was right when it showed zr 6 days ago I think the Euro might 'win' on this event being lighter and faster.

It sure would be nice if the precip were a bit heavier now while the column is still good. Just stuck my head out the door and it's all snow, but mostly light to at times moderate. Temp is 26.

Snow here with a solid coating, but I am guessing it wont last much longer.

Ok, as long as you realize the TT "snow" maps are shit.

Interesting tidbits from Mount Holly AFD- The ultimate evolution of the first southern-stream perturbation will be what is responsible for our winter weather late tonight and Thursday. A strong anticyclonic upper-level jet streak will combine with midlevel differential cyclonic vorticity advection to aid in intensifying surface low pressure from the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Intense warm advection atop a low-level baroclinic zone will aid in widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of the developing low. Meanwhile, a strong surface high will remain in southeast Canada, providing cold onshore flow for the northern Mid-Atlantic preceding the storm. Models are, as usual, too moist with the predecessor boundary-layer environment, with dew points a good 6-10+ degrees lower than model consensus today. This will be important in two ways. First, it is likely that low-level saturation requirements will delay precipitation onset in our CWA, with snow not likely to get going in earnest until near or just after daybreak. Second, models are likely too warm at the surface, especially during the main "thump" of precipitation during the morning hours. Sided with colder guidance here. With models trending slightly northward with the warm-nose influence on precipitation type on Thursday, our inclination was to be a little less aggressive than consensus in this regard. No question that the strength of warm advection will be intense, likely leading to a veritable sleet storm in a good chunk of the area as the event unfolds during the day. However, there has been a tendency for higher-res guidance to be a little too aggressive in shunting the warm nose to the north this season. Of course, there has also been a tendency for northwest shifts in the snow/sleet/freezing rain geographical distributions within 24 hours of the event (playing out once again with today`s guidance). It will be quite interesting to see how the 00z solutions play out, as run-to-run variability has been diminishing confidence in the forecast for this event considerably.

Dude.. SLEET.

Suggestion- Post in banter. When you have something relevant and interesting that adds to the discussion, post in the main threads.

Para says keep hope alive. Still total weenie. It's gonna crash and burn. At least our "new" GFS will be fun again. Plenty of digital snow.

You always take it in stride. It's those north Carroll dudes who think they live in Canaan or something.

Wow just looked at the 18z GFS. Not going well approaching game time. NW folks okay in the main thread? How is Jayyyy?

Here! Drinking a Cocoa Loco in celebration of the coming sleet bomb, or freezing rain, or whatever lol.

Not really a hobby. More like being a fan of a bad football team.

First/only/final call for my yard: 1/2" of snow, 1/2" of sleet, 0.2" of zr, topped off by 20 mins of snizzle.

This captures the initial thump pretty well.

That second wave is worth watching. Pretty nice on the Para, but it could possibly evolve into something a little more.

Nice to see the Para back on WB.

ICON has the second wave for later Friday with an inch or 2 for southern/eastern areas.

He did it!