CAPE

But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups.

That will likely change, its just due to uncertainty. Might expand the WSW for wave 2 further north, and/or put an advisory in effect later today for wave 1/wave 2.

1-3 seems reasonable. Recent runs are juicing up the initial wave some, but that seems to coincide with a more northward axis of better qpf. 12z will probably tell the rest of that story.

We always suck lol. Definitely do better with the bigger events in a Nino with a juiced up stj. Ninas find more ways of screwing the MA in general, although much less so a in blocking regime.

Everything is moving that way. I am leaning towards S PA jack, altho the usual places in N MD will also do well.

GFS kinda has it here lol.

There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves.

The general issues with next week are the trough axis to our west, and the h5 height configuration to our NE. Euro/EPS has a deeper trough and a bit negative/w stronger ridging out in front, and the NA vortex is a bit further NE. More opportunity for a primary to track to our west.

HREF snow mean looks good.

Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much. Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts.

Realistically 4" is top end for wave one here. The snow growth looks pretty meh. Wont be anything like Sunday. Otoh colder temps, at least overnight tonight.

It hates you too Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2.

I despise the GFS. It continually has a precip hole here lol. I am pretty much fine with the rest of the guidance.

Lots of good ones. The Good, the Bad , and the Ugly is a classic. Epic Spaghetti western!

Other than maybe Outlaw Josey Wales, its my fave Clint Eastwood movie.

High Plains Drifter is a great flick.

Not too shabby. So the Euro and the NAMs suck. Pretty much everything else looks acceptable. Everyone drink.

What does the Ukie look like? its a bitch to find any decent surface/precip panels so I never bother.

Euro has not been stellar. The NAM? lol We got the ICON, the Canadians, the SREFs, and even the GFS, which looks pretty decent for much of the region. This aint ova.

Disagree this is "killing" intelligent discussion. Still plenty of good analysis in the discussion threads among the majority of the posters. I will agree that some here apparently never look at the upper levels and think the surface p-type/snow maps tell the story, which ofc they never do in isolation.

Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu)

Mount Holly AFD- One period of snows will affect many areas Wednesday night and into Thursday with the central and southern areas favored. The second disturbance will be the following night into Friday morning. This second wave is trending further south of the first one any may only affect Delmarva if trends continue. If there are no changes to the fcst (unlikely) it could end up being two advisory events for mostly the southern parts of the region. Our storm total snow graphic (both events combined) shows around 1 to 2 inches for the northern half of the area, 2 to 3 inches for the lower Delaware Valley and 4 to 6 inches for Delaware and ne MD. No flags will be issued with this package considering most of the snow (from the first event) won`t stop until the fourth period and some variances in track and intensity make it not a sure bet presently. Pops for the two events generally will be likely/categorical S and low chc for N/W areas.. If it plays out like this there wont be any complaints here.

GFS managed to pretty much miss my yard with both waves. I am inclined to believe it.