Mount Holly AFD. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Blizzard warning hoisted later tomorrow for coastal DE.
Major winter storm to impact the region Friday night through Saturday... Bottom line up front: While there continue be some differences in our forecast guidance, confidence is high enough for our coastal zones of NJ and southern DE to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The remaining zones farther north through the urban corridor remain in a Watch for now as there is still some uncertainty regarding weather amounts here will reach or exceed warning thresholds as we`re still thinking it`ll be right around the 4-7 inch storm total range. And with that it should be said there has been no major change to forecast thinking as most of the latest model guidance (excluding outlier GFS which appears to be too far east) supports storm total snowfall forecast made last night or even suggests amounts will be just a bit higher in some spots, especially near the coast. We also have growing concerns strong winds will be an issue with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast and 30 to 40 mph inland by Saturday. This will lead to reduced visibilities with blowing / drifting snow. Also some (minor) coastal flooding concerns further discussed in the section below. Getting into the details, rapidly deepening low pressure will move from a position off the SE CONUS coast Friday evening to a point east of Cape Cod by Saturday evening. As this occurs snow will become steadier and heavier and heavier from south to north through Friday evening, reaching the I-95 corridor near or shortly after midnight. It`s when we get into the overnight period we will start to see some periods of heavier snow develop at least over southern DE and coastal NJ...potentially reaching as far north as the I-95 corridor by late at night. Northerly winds will also ramp up through the overnight as well,..reaching 20-30 gusting 35 to 45 mph by Saturday morning near the coast. Temperatures will be cold and we are confident this will be an all snow event, even near the coast. Lows Friday night will range from the teens over much of eastern PA into northern NJ (single digits in Poconos) to low to mid farther S/E. Wind chills will make it feel colder though! For Saturday, intense low will be east of the mid Atlantic coast to start the day as it continues to rapidly deepen. Snow will be ongoing for much of the area with northerly winds continuing to ramp up as well. Snow, potentially heavy at times, near and S/E of the urban corridor will continue through Saturday morning before gradually starting to wind down west to east in the afternoon. It should be noted though that strong winds will continue right through the day as they shift from northerly in the morning to NW heading into the afternoon. Expect winds gusting 30 to potentially as high as 40 mph inland with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast. This will create significantly reduced visibilities, especially near the coast where visibilities could be near zero at times. Temperatures won`t go up much, generally holding in the 20s so combined with the winds this will create bitter wind chills in the single digits to below zero.
