CAPE

The 6z run has a a little different wave timing wrt the NS vorticity and it doesnt dig as much- so less upper confluence/convergence in southern Canada, with the low track a bit further NW.

The 0z GFS evolution was close to ideal. Looking at the surface, note the HP over southern Canada that I was referring to in the previous post.

Bigger point is the models wont correctly resolve wave timing and interactions a week out. What I posted was the Euro from 18z yesterday at the end of the run, and the prior day 18z run at the same point. There has been a trend for less interaction with the trough out west, and differences in central/eastern Canada with NS energy resulting in a flatter more compressed flow- encouraging HP at the surface and potentially keeping the low further south/weaker as it moves eastward. That's our path to victory if there is one.

I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stone

I'm going to enjoy the mild weather over the next 4 days. Looking forward to washing the cruddy jeep tomorrow. Cold will return by the end of the week, then be variable for a bit. Just have to wait and see beyond that.

Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet.

I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome.

One more

Photos from Terrapin today

As the model guidance turns..

You are being performative as usual. Our coldest avg high is around 40, depending on exact location. Using that metric, it always takes anomalous cold for it to snow. We have had plenty of significant snowstorms mid Feb into mid March.

Probably 70% here, but I am in the woods. Out in the open areas its probably about 50. It will all be pretty much gone by Thursday. Hell of a run with snow otg. 20+ days

High of 35. The real warmup begins tomorrow.

Went to Terrapin today for a hike. Not surprising that there is more ice on the bay than I have seen in 10 years. I'll post a few pics later.

So you think that means everyday will be above "normal" from tomorrow through the 21st then?

It was always a risky proposition if the southwestern vortex came eastward all at once. It's part of a block in the atmosphere and as it breaks down that energy can escape. An amplified upstream ridge and deep trough shifting eastward phases some energy in as it releases it, and that tends to lift it northward. Previous run maintained some spacing between the digging trough and the sw UL, so less interaction and lifting. Just kicked it eastward.

Yeah it made a move in the wrong direction out west.

As advertised stretched but still damn cold. Probably not a significant disruption. I honestly don't pay much attention to the strat stuff anymore. Too disconnected from where actual weather occurs.

Reminds me I need to pick up some avocados today. Gotta have Guac for tomorrow.

Temp shot up quick in the last hour. Up to 27.

Looks like the Saints are the only team left with a HC vacancy. I don't believe they have even mentioned interviewing Monken. Seems likely he will be back with the Ravens as OC. I like Monken, but he needs to work on his play calling in key situations in the game. Still wants to pass in cases where it makes more sense to run Henry. And the design and execution on the 2-point conversions left a lot to be desired- and again favoring passing with a reluctance to go heavy and slam it in with Henry. Might seem like nitpicks but have been critical in key moments of important games. Go back and look at the sequence preceding the Tucker FG in the second quarter last Sunday. They had the ball at the 2 yd line! Should have scored a TD there. With the other mistakes overshadowing, this big missed opportunity seemingly went unnoticed in the end.

Worth noting the 6z GEFS isnt as cold as the EPS and CMC ens, with a less pronounced EPO ridge, and mean trough centered further west. Leaves a flat SE ridge on the ens mean. Still a very workable pattern with slightly colder than avg temps in the east. The 0z run had kind of an ambiguous h5 look but was somewhat colder for the east. Not digging into the members but probably more spread wrt the pattern evolution on the GEFS.

Going in, 2014 was probably the best possible outcome for this winter. So far it's pretty close. Looks like we are shifting back into a cold period early to mid Feb after a modest milder period. Ensembles are hinting at multiple waves propagating along the thermal boundary, which should be in an increasingly more favorable location for our region as we get into the second week of Feb.

Literally took this looking out the window as the sun came up.