CAPE

The coastal still develops a tad late and offshore on the GFS, but it is emphasizing impressive forcing right along the cold front prior to the arrival of the trough. Have to see how that trends, as a good amount of snow seems to be associated with that.

6z GFS kinda went boom

0z EPS improved a bit.

Pretty decent signal at range for something other than an offshore scraper. Maybe something for inlanders to finally get more excited about.

From Mount Holly AFD this afternoon- For Sunday and Monday...Our sensible weather during this time frame, especially Sunday, will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas, however temperature-wise it looks much colder. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However, the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur from northern stream energy and energy tracking along and eventually out of the Gulf Coast states. Much of the guidance keeps the features more separate and therefore the surface low is well offshore and more progressive. Some ensemble member guidance however does show a closer to the coast track of the surface low, so this at least bears some watching. Despite the surface low tracking well offshore, an upper- level jet feature may result in a zone of forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain. For now given the uncertainty, we kept some low PoPs (20-30 percent) in place. Whatever does develop should be moving away by Monday as the main upper-level trough axis swings across our region and surface high pressure starts to arrive from the west.

Been busy so catching up on HH run. For the snow map weenies the ens mean looks serviceable I suppose.(except for WinterWxLuvr)

Almost perfect. You needed to work Miller B in there somewhere.

The primary problem last winter was no available actual cold air. That can happen in a NINO or Neutral too. Overall Ninas have worked out well for my yard recently- better than Neutrals/Ninos of the past several years. So it also depends on specific location in any given winter. The lack of cold last winter hurt us both, but it was just good enough for places a bit further N and W. You tend to generalize a bit too much.

Flow is fast and progressive. If we had blocking similar to last winter with the Pacific state we have had for the past month, I bet no one here would ever mention the ENSO state.

This is still a work in progress. That GFS run is not likely going to be the final answer for the actual ground truth outcome. It could be much worse.

Ninas are northern stream dominant. There is either no stj, or it's weak/diffuse. Forget the Miller labels- nothing to do with ENSO really. You are conflating 2 different concepts.

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!!

Who cares lol. All the energy of interest originates in the NS- just go to h5 vorticity and hit play. It all enters from the N PAC and drops in on the east side of the amped ridge. What matters is the interplay between those waves.

Verbatim that northern stream energy is coming in like a wrecking ball on both the 0z GFS and Euro runs. It doesn't phase and just aids in kicking the southern shortwave east. Luckily at this juncture that solution probably isn't correct, and it wouldn't take much adjustment in the timing and degree of interaction to get a much different outcome.

Still pretty meager, but a good bit better than 12z.

lol my EPS. Well there are 50 members that are all perturbed slightly differently than the op, but still only 2 of those L positions are good for you. The takeaway is late/offshore, supporting the op.

38 with light rain.

The potential can be seen on various op runs, but on most runs it's a miss. Given that, it makes sense we consistently see late/offshore on the ens mean, with a few members each run resembling the op when there is a hit. The progressive flow, amplifying LW pattern, and issues with resolving the subtle interactions between all the moving parts make it unlikely that we will see a consistent signal on the ops or ensembles outside of 4-5 days. Maybe by Thursday we will have a better idea. For now, we just can't know- although some probably think they do lol.

It's been more than 10 years lol, but idk the frequency. Maybe every 20? Psu would know.

Destructive interference in the NS. Same with the Euro. The 0z run showed the way, but good luck getting that timing in reality.

The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way.