CAPE

We all rely on guidance mostly, and frankly it's all subject to change esp beyond day 10. Things that were 'supposed' to occur at one point, a few days later might look quite different, more so when we are clearly moving out of what was a sustained pattern to something else. Models sometimes struggle with where exactly it goes going forward. In this case the volatility its mostly related to uncertainty with Nina induced forcing in the tropics. This sort of thing causes the mood in the LR thread to often resemble a sine wave lol.

Still normal to below normal surface temps there, and op and ens guidance are currently hinting at some wintry potential in the 6-10th window. Ultimately maybe the pattern goes to crap around D15, but something good might happen just before that.

The Control in an ensemble serves as an unperturbed 'reference' for the perturbed members. It really has no more value by itself than any other single member.

Not sure why you post control runs. In the case of the extended product, it is 1 of 101 members in the ensemble. Why would it have any value at all over a 46 day period by itself?

At 12 days out, there is a pretty decent chance the outcome on the 12z Euro isn't correct. I just don't think that has much to do with the 12z GEFS going apeshit with the -PNA or SER.

EPS hasn't looked that way. One might be more correct than the other. Wonder which one?

WB keeps getting suckier. Precip maps come out way ahead of 500 mb or p-type. Still sitting at hour 156 at h5 on the 12z Euro.

6z and 12z GFS both have a wave around the 10th with some frozen. Weakish though. 12z Euro-

I don't care for it much in Summer either.

GFS was trying there too.

That was a pretty active run. A couple close calls.

Meanwhile the Euro/EPS have a mild juicy rainstorm cranking in the middle of the country on the 7th with a low tracking towards the GLs.

Something like that. Verbatim probably mostly/all snow for N MD.

Yeah it looks juicy.

Looks like a Miller B

Yeah at that point it would be a thread the needle deal to get frozen into most of our region. 6z GFS has something in that timeframe as well but frozen is to our north. The following wave around the 10th looks interesting, but way the hell out there.

EPS has the best h5 look heading into mid Feb. Trough in the central US with more of a WAR and less SER.

Well, we can use the rain. Other than the snow that fell Jan has been another dry month.

Good news- still 6 days to go.

The trend on the Euro is for a sharper shortwave digging south in Ontario instead of a broad vorticity ribbon compressing the flow. This induces a pretty significant surface low to the north- not really what we want to see. Pretty touchy situation with wave timing/interactions.

Track is a bit too far north. It snows just to our north as modeled. Need the NS vorticity to dig further south as it did on the 0z run- shifting the upper convergence/confluence zone and surface HP further south. That was really close to being a good outcome here.

WTFs aren't technically a MD team but I get what you mean.

Eagles win that imo. Too physical for Buffalo. Ravens beat them up pretty good but were sloppy af with dumb coaching and turnovers.

Really nice season for the WTFs. Future is bright. Its over now. Turnovers are killers in these big games.