CAPE

Latest take on potential for tomorrow from Mount Holly- Monday continues to appear quite interesting. The mid level short wave trough that was producing thunderstorms in the middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon will head our way. It should move up the Ohio River Valley overnight and on Monday morning. The trough is expected to begin taking on a negative tilt on Monday and its axis is anticipated to pass over our region early on Monday night. Conditions are forecast to become favorable for severe weather in our region in advance of the approaching short wave and its associated cold front from Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Mixed layer CAPE values are expected to rise into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range as surface temperatures rise mostly into the upper 70s and lower 80s with dew point readings well into the 60s. The expected wind profiles suggest deep layer shear in excess of 40 knots with storm relative helicity rising near 200 m2/s2. Not only are damaging winds and hail forecast but we will need to watch for brief spin-ups in our area. The storms are expected to be progressive. However, with precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 1.5 inches, locally heavy and flooding is areas of poor drainage are additional concerns.

0.40" of rain today with a high of 67.

Mid May to mid September, as always.

A couple more from the top of Seneca Rocks. There is a platform at the end of the trail, but I climbed a bit higher and the second pic is looking up at the top of the rocks.

A few shots from Bear Rocks Preserve in north Dolly Sods and one from Seneca Rocks. The Seneca Rocks Hike was a good workout- not long but vertical- going from around 1500 to 2500 feet in less than 2 miles. A lot nicer heading back down. Ofc Dolly Sods is all high elevation- the shots from Bear Rocks area are from 4000 ft. Pretty rough ride up there and the Jeep looks cruddy.

Should be a perfect day for hiking out here. Sunny, mid 60s and breezy.

Off to Canaan for a few days. Top of the to do list is hiking in the Dolly Sods Wilderness.

I have thoroughly enjoyed this Spring honestly. No complaints at all. This period could be a tad warm and humid as advertised. Only a matter of time in these parts.

Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture.

43 with a bit of drizzle. With no additional rain today, looks like the total here will be 1.15".

The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front.

GEFS looks normal to above normal for temps moving towards and beyond mid May, with precip below normal to normal. I will definitely take the over on temps as we move towards early summer. We are the MA after all.

I have had to clean mine out a couple times with the trees dropping tons of catkins(tree sperm) plus some bug crap in there under the tipping bucket. My rain totals for the past week are probably low, so I will check the Greensboro weather station to compare.

Radar has filled in some over here the past hour or so. Getting steady light to moderate rain. Closing in on an inch.

It has been comparatively dry over here and seem to be dry slotted for now. Quite breezy with a temp of 50. 0.76" so far.

lol 0.15" here. Looking like a bit of an underperformer over here based on what was being modeled a day or 2 ago. Never wanted the 2-3" amounts, but a solid inch would be nice. Lets see what happens with the developing coastal low tonight.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- A strong, slow moving coastal storm will affect the region for most of the weekend. Widespread rain will be ongoing early Friday night as a warm front sits south of our region. Primary low pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken Friday night as a secondary low develops just off the Delmarva coast in response to an approaching upper level trough and strong low level frontogenetic forcing. That secondary low will continue to develop off the coast and sit with little movement Saturday into Sunday, before strong high pressure to the north begins slowly forcing it south. The low will also start to become vertically stacked during this time as the upper level trough closes off and moves over the surface low. This will cause the surface low to start slowly weakening, but thanks to strong high pressure to the north, the pressure gradient will remain very strong, reinforcing the onshore flow. This is quite an anomalous system for the season, a true Nor`easter with multiple days of rain and battering wind likely especially at the coast. The steadiest rain is expected from Friday night through Saturday, but periods of rain and showers are likely to continue into Sunday. We`ll first deal with the initial thump of overrunning precipitation, which will be what starts during the daytime on Friday. As the coastal low spins up, we`ll then see areas of banded frontogenetic precipitation on its northwest flank which will continue to bring areas of rain through Sunday. With time on Sunday, as the low slowly shifts further south, northern portions of the area may dry out, while showers likely continue to the south and east. Temperatures will also be a story this weekend. The combination of rain, a thick cloud deck, and strong onshore winds will lead to much below normal temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. Highs mostly in the low to mid 50s are expected, and a lot of time will be spent in the 40s. Combined with the wind and rain, the weekend looks downright ugly overall.

The Euro has been consistently slower with the exit of the secondary coastal low than other guidance, thus prolonging the rain, esp for areas to the south and east. That's why it has a more even distribution of heavy rainfall through the region.

Looks wet.

Getting snow around here is hard, regardless of ENSO, and it isn't getting any easier as we move forward. The Holy grail of 2009-10 is super rare, so throw that one out. So, we suck at snow most of the time. End of story.

Seeing plenty of average to above average temps advertised on the ens means once that closed low gets pushed south and dissipates early next week.

It has been abnormally dry for much of the region, so this should help. Looks like a soaking rain Friday and Saturday. Latest trends on the models suggest Sunday might be salvaged as the low cuts off and sinks further south and drier air filters in on the NW side.

Wasn't expecting to see much if any rain here based on the depiction on the CAMs. Heard some thunder in the early AM, now just general rain with a temp of 51. 0.33" so far.

Not exactly. This sort of a pattern is most likely to occur in Fall or Spring, and while it is a 'blocking' pattern, it is an omega block with a cutoff low that meanders around under an anticyclonic wave break, and it is not the setup we would want to see(or is very likely to occur) during winter. If we did get a high amplitude poleward extending h5 ridge in that position(as is being advertised) during winter, it would be a generally mild pattern with maritime air mass.

Impressive Omega block. Oh look, it evolves into this, another omega block with a cutoff low along the Atlantic coast. This is probably not exactly how the pattern will transpire, but a strong signal for a generally blocky regime with a cutoff low remaining off the MA/SE coast across global guidance. Pretty wild.