CAPE

In that panel the location/amplitude/orientation of the NPac ridge is 'unfavorable', placing a trough out west. A trough out west requires there to be a ridge downstream, but in this case it isn't really a SER. A favorable NA(block) can suppress/flatten an eastern ridge to a degree. Because the trough is a bit further NW in this case, the ridge is shifted a bit more westward, and in conjunction the NA block is inhibiting the ridge from extending to the east coast.

Our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on seemingly random atmospheric wave interactions and timing. Total chaos. Not a very fruitful hobby when the one desired outcome has such a low probability of occurring in this area lol.

There are subtle differences between the models wrt the wave interactions in the Pacific- specifically the character of the deepening trough north of Hawaii and differences in the EPAC ridge as it shifts northward from its initial position with a positively tilted orientation. On the GEFS the trough north of Hawaii captures the western US trough as the Pac ridge stretches/ retrogrades more westward towards the Aleutians. This inhibits the western US trough from progressing eastward. On the EPS there is a bit of a ridge east of the Hawaii trough that links with the Pac ridge building more northward over AK. This allows the western US trough to escape and progress eastward. Who knows which one is more correct.

Truckee getting pummeled.

If the guidance was advertising a torch/ shit/shut the blinds pattern we would all just move on- but we are who we are. This may or may not be different, but with Nina dying and the atmosphere shifting into Spring mode, the depicted differences in the pattern are more believable. Plus the SSWE did happen, and that often shakes up the pattern a few weeks later. All that said, my expectations are pretty low. I will keep tracking it though, because it is HAIL MARY time.

Blizzard warning and heavy snow in Truckee. http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee Overnight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 26. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 4. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Yes, at this point we all need to be more discreet about any discrete threats depicted on the models.

41, damp, and gloomy here this morning. 0.43" of rain overnight

Not a bad approach tbh. Also, not picking on you specifically, but I see this mistake a lot. The word you want to use here is 'discrete'.

Considering we probably have less than 3 weeks to salvage something from this pathetic winter, most here are running thin on patience.

The same general idea is there on the 0z EPS. At this range, analyzing details each model cycle is a bit futile.

If the -EPO/WPO is real, that will help to inject cold into the pattern.

I believe this is the actual 'Chuck' window. Beautiful look at h5 and cold.

There was a -NAO but It wasn't really a true block as it lacked the lower heights in the 50-50 region. There was a TPV underneath for a time, but it shifted west and dumped into the western trough. Then the whole avocado came south and we had the big cutter around Christmas with Arctic cold behind. Another missed opportunity that can largely attributed to the state of the shitty Pacific, and the pattern broke down a few days later. We have been stuck in this garbage pattern since.

Shouldn't be any cutters with this look. Our primary fail mode risk would shift to that thing Ralph fears. There is still an indication of a coastal low around the 11th, but just offshore this run.

Disaster!! This is the post I expected from Ji.

Ji the optimist lol. I suppose if every run going forward made a similar adjustment maybe Leesburg would get some front end frozen. Most likely just run to run noise though. The primary actually ends up tracking further NW this run.

It didn't. He might be looking at a single panel comparing the 2 runs wrt the secondary low. Sensible differences are zero.

With the advertised changes on the Pacific side, cold air in place, and a textbook -NAO, there shouldn't be a SER to suppress.

The former is not surprising and a good move. The latter- I still have my doubts.

Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up.

@vastateofmind Drinking a Flying Dog Family Drama. Not your typical Pilsner.

That is nice. The precip panel I posted above ends up like this. Here we go!

The difference is, assuming its real, the persistently awful Pacific reshuffles and finally the ridge morphs into something that could be helpful instead of a hindrance for snow in the MA.

We're all gonna do it again. You know it. This is the one!