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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Mitchell baby! Finally. What a find he was. Feel bad for Dobbins, but he is probably done as a Raven.
  2. CAPE
    From 37 to 67. Feels even warmer.
  3. CAPE
    I bet Terrapin Depth Perception DIPA would have stimulated those taste buds a bit. Super hoppy on the front end.
  4. CAPE
    Wow pretty protracted but sounds like you are on the mend. I had an ear infection during the summer of covid(not from covid though) and was given amoxicillin, which caused a severe body rash. No more of that stuff. Took prednisone to get rid of the rash. Loved that shit while it lasted lol. Happy pills.
  5. CAPE
    How long has it been? And iirc you didn't test positive for COVID?
  6. CAPE
    It's also a great NFL football day. 4 matchups of top teams beginning with KC and Miami in Germany. Kickoff at 930am, so ofc I will start off with a Breakfast Stout from Flying Dog. I have some DFH 90 min IPAs in the fridge so might have one of those later. Depending on how the Ravens play, I might just go straight to the hard stuff.
  7. CAPE
    A lot depends on the Pac jet strength/position of the exit region. Recent ens runs are digging a trough into the GoA just beyond mid month, but right at the end of the runs it seems to flatten and the PNA appears to trend positive. Definitely some volatility wrt the Pacific pattern. I have no expectations for November/early Dec other than seasonable weather, and we could use a little rain.
  8. CAPE
    High of 64 yesterday. Low of 37 this morning.
  9. CAPE
    Where's the cold in that pattern? +AO/NAO, neutral PNA. Looks like a mild Pacific air mass.
  10. CAPE
    Put a tree guard around it and hope it survives the existing damage. Since it is only on half or less of the tree, it might be ok.
  11. CAPE
    Third consecutive night aob freezing. Currently 32.
  12. CAPE
    A note about the extended products(weeklies) as a useful tool- they initialize off the previous day's 0z ens run, so the current run is based on 'old' data, and ofc there is already significant uncertainty at day 15. Imo the weeklies are decent for gleaning general trends in the longwave pattern(over a few consecutive runs) maybe a week to 10 days further out from the end of the ensemble run. Snowfall maps 1000+ hours might be fun to look at, but those maps are already pretty useless beyond D7.
  13. CAPE
    BWI: 22.5" DCA: 19.5" IAD: 25.2" RIC: 15" Tiebreaker SBY: 15" Bonus: DE beaches- 33.3"
  14. CAPE
    That is boilerplate Nina. Ofc there are always variations in the orientation/position of the ridge. Same can be said for a Nino- stands to reason the seasonal models will pick up on the more pronounced STJ with the tendency for lower pressure near the Aleutians.
  15. CAPE
    It's November. Winter is less than a month away and there is a high probability of a moderate-strong El Nino. Probably time to put the seasonal models in the rearview mirror, and focus on the LR ensembles and the weeklies/extended products as the primary forecast tools.
  16. CAPE
    Looks like a zonal flow for awhile with any significant shortwaves tracking to our north. Not the best for rain chances.
  17. CAPE
    29. About the same low temp as yesterday, but many more hours below freezing.
  18. CAPE
    30. Once I drove out of the woods into the wide open areas, temp was 28.
  19. CAPE
    I only care about h5 on these seasonal models.
  20. CAPE
    Burning question. It's late. I would guess sometime in the next few hours.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah at this juncture I just don't want to see a super cold gyre at 10 mb at the beginning of winter. That usually doesn't end well.
  22. CAPE
    Probably not the best look if you are a SPV. Not very cold/ cohesive. This would be a pretty good sign for the winter if it's an accurate depiction for early Dec. Good indication of the TPV location, which would be pretty favorable.
  23. CAPE
    38 here
  24. CAPE
    Truthiness is a hell of a drug.
  25. CAPE
    GEFS X has the same general idea.
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