CAPE

Low of 34 but temp has risen in the early morning hours. 39 now.

Interesting look on the 0z GEFS. Hint of a wave coming eastward in the southern stream with cold in place. Nice look up top- even has a bit of a -NAO. Verbatim there is a little snow across the region on the mean just beyond this timeframe.

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We'll never see another 2009 - 2010 winter in our lifetimes at this latitude.

Are you in favor of that evolution or not? I'm concerned the ridge being too far east would push our trough and subsequent coastal lows too far offshore.

There is always some variability in a longwave pattern, even one that seems to be locked in phase. Two winters ago we saw this in Jan after an apparently hopeless 'close the blinds pattern' 2 weeks earlier. The broad Aleutian ridge from hell(typical Nina) amped and shifted east(-EPO), bringing the cold and baroclinic boundary southward, and part of our region saw 3 snowstorms. In that particular case, 2 of the lows were a bit late developing/offshore for NW areas. Way too early to be concerned about the details though. The general looks we are currently seeing on guidance on the Pac side are pretty damn good.

Glad my area can still get good snow following nothing significant in Nov/ Dec. What a curse lol. Maybe a case of too much analytics? Professional sports could use a little less of that too.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Context... I'm not saying its bad that it hasn't snowed yet.  But some were basically saying its fine if we torch through December because its going to be a backloaded winter.  I wanted to point out that isn't really what the historical data says is a viable path to a good winter.  

Backloaded does not mean December torch. Not sure who said that. Most of the seasonal/extended guidance is suggestive of a relatively mild December though, which is pretty common in a Nino.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I know others have different thoughts but I still think for your overall winter outcomes, the pacific is the driver. Blocking helps, but a bad pacific can sink it all.

I tend to agree. There is always the 'cold and dry' fear with a pattern like that without any blocking on the Atlantic side to slow things down a bit (and also increase chances for a favorable storm track), but the other thing that can kill snow chances ofc is little to no cold air availability. A pattern that injects cross Polar flow into our source region minimizes that problem.

Worrying season has begun.

The ensembles continue to advertise a favorable Pac look as we head into December. Aleutian low/-EPO and a neutral PNA. That type of pattern can bring some early season cold. AO/NAO domain isn't great but not hostile either. TPV in a decent spot.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I was also referring to your “December will probably be December” comment. Yea December’s have been just mostly awful lately.  And guess what’s also been mostly awful for a long time now, our entire winters!  
 

Is it possible we torch straight through to January then turn it around?  Sure, but that’s not the typical pathway to a big snow year.  Usually they show their hand earlier than they historically.  It might not snow on the mid Atlantic coastal plain but there is a huge difference between it being just a little too warm for snow along 95 and it being too warm for snow anywhere in our region.  I looked it up years ago, and everyone hates when I pull out the exact dates and numbers, but they’ve been perfect in declaring “winters over” several times recently.  There are definitive milestones where if it hasn’t snowed by then in places like where I am or Martinsburg WV or Hagerstown…it starts looking really bad for the winter, and those dates are fast approaching, so when I see long range runs that mostly torch our whole area for weeks it bothers me some because yes it’s “more if the same” but I don’t want more of the same awful crap the last 7 years has been!  It would be nice to get back to when it actually snowed in November and December here because that was also when we used to get a lot of snow in Winter more often  

 

My wag is the second half of Dec will be colder. I also said I could see some snow the latter part of the month. I guess you missed that post lol. The reality is December has been an extension of Fall for the lowlands lately- and it might be the new normal. It's tricky this winter wrt to snowfall because this Nino is unusual, but most of the seasonal guidance is suggestive of a back loaded winter with the pattern becoming favorable in Jan, and Feb likely being the best month for snow chances.

For those who want a chilly Turkey day, root for the GEPS. High temps in the 40s. EPS is milder with mid to upper 50s.

27

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Given your location I get your attitude. But in the last 75 years there have been 17 seasons with over 50” here. And only one of them got to December with no accumulating snowfall. Most had significant snow by the end of the first week of December. Up here you can usually tell early if the season has big potential. And if I don’t get 50” here you can forget some of those haughty big number predictions I see for the metro areas in the snowfall contest thread!  

 

it’s one thing if DC is 45 and just a bit too warm to snow but it’s not good when we’re 55-60 into December. There is time to turn around. I’m not worried yet. But I do think the next few weeks has more to tell us about the outcome of winter than some seem to think. 

I was talking about Thanksgiving day lol. So what if its 60? It could snow a few days later.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What that was him??? Boooooooo. How about we not draft anybody with the last name Cleveland anymore, lol 

Now I don't like effort accusations...because on winning teams they are rarely ever true. It's one thing if the other team plays better than you, but it's another to say they didn't try. This is a proud team...just were not good enough today. And after winning 4 straight I'm not about to say "here we go again" as if we didn't play well for the other 7 wins we have, lol It's one loss!

Now injuries on the other hand...yeah not having those three Thursday is way less than ideal. Burrow is gonna attack Ya-Sin like crazy...we'll see.

The 'here we go again' part was wrt the injuries. That was not a good effort by the coaching or the players (the D especially). Interpret however you want. Giving up nearly 200 yards rushing is embarrassing for a so called dominant defense. And speaking of coaching, how is Keaton Mitchell completely forgotten about after the first quarter?? We see this dumb shit from Harbaugh coached teams over and over again. And yes it's ultimately on him.

Ravens went into this game pretty much fully healthy and on a roll. Ofc it ends in disaster lol. Besides the poor overall effort (here we go again), they will probably without Stanley, Zeitler, and Marlon Humphrey for the Bengals game. Humphrey injury was non contact lower leg. Never good. He could be done. Good bet all 3 are not playing against the Bengals Thursday night.

And Ben Cleveland 

He is the reason Tucker's 50 yd FG was blocked. Not sure why he is even on the team at this point. Bust.

lol Harbaugh.

Browns rushed for 178 today. Defense came up very small, especially in the second half.

Lamar was mediocre and the passing game is still too inconsistent.

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve got a bad feeling about this…

Browns just looked bigger and faster. Their 2 backup O-linemen were better than the Ravens 2. Their D is clearly number one.

Things change quickly in this league.

By the numbers the 0z EPS at the end of the run has a significantly-EPO/WPO, AO is neutral/slightly negative, NAO slightly positive, -PNA. GEPS is similar. GEFS trends the PNA into positive territory by day 15.

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS drops the AO well negative at the end. I don’t hate it. 
 

As for my perfect thanksgiving weather, I’d say upper 40s/low 50s for high with some sun and lows in the upper 20s.

This is the reason I am paying attention to the ens runs towards the end of the month- to get an idea how the pattern progresses as we head into the beginning of winter. 

Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever.

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah really. Sad how we miss Decembers of yore. 

I could see a little snow towards the end of Dec. We were close last winter, but ofc Ninas almost always find a way to screw this region, esp early. Ninos otoh, tend to find a way to work for the MA.

I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. 

lol Ji got it. Chill.

Just having a little fun with EJ. The extended products are pretty much complete crap beyond maybe a week past the end of the ensemble runs. No one knows what mid Dec will look like.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

High of 55 here. Currently 50. temps should drop quickly this evening with barely a breeze and a mostly clear sky. Could be a bit more in the way of clouds later. Might get near freezing here, but I doubt lower than that. Tomorrow night should be colder.

Currently 41 at 7pm