CAPE

High of 64 yesterday.

Low of 37 this morning.

11 hours ago, Ji said:

this might get interesting for Thanksgiving week

Where's the cold in that pattern? +AO/NAO, neutral PNA. Looks like a mild Pacific air mass.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

A damn deer rubbed on my new elm tree. It’s only on about 1/3rd or 1/2 the circumference. Any suggestions on what to do? 

Put a tree guard around it and hope it survives the existing damage. Since it is only on half or less of the tree, it might be ok.

Third consecutive night aob freezing.

Currently 32.

A note about the extended products(weeklies) as a useful tool- they initialize off the previous day's 0z ens run, so the current run is based on 'old' data, and ofc there is already significant uncertainty at day 15. Imo the weeklies are decent for gleaning general trends in the longwave pattern(over a few consecutive runs) maybe a week to 10 days further out from the end of the ensemble run. Snowfall maps 1000+ hours might be fun to look at, but those maps are already pretty useless beyond D7.

BWI: 22.5"

DCA: 19.5"

IAD: 25.2"

RIC: 15"

Tiebreaker SBY: 15"

Bonus: DE beaches- 33.3"

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

You have to say they hit the idea of the Aleutian ridge and there was troughing for the majority of the winter out west last winter 

That is boilerplate Nina. Ofc there are always variations in the orientation/position of the ridge. Same can be said for a Nino- stands to reason the seasonal models will pick up on the more pronounced STJ with the tendency for lower pressure near the Aleutians. 

It's November. Winter is less than a month away and there is a high probability of a moderate-strong El Nino. Probably time to put the seasonal models in the rearview mirror, and focus on the LR ensembles and the weeklies/extended products as the primary forecast tools.

Looks like a zonal flow for awhile with any significant shortwaves tracking to our north. Not the best for rain chances.

29. About the same low temp as yesterday, but many more hours below freezing. 

30. Once I drove out of the woods into the wide open areas, temp was 28.

Just now, Ji said:

I only care about h5 on these seasonal models. 

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

When does the new cansips come out?

Burning question. It's late. I would guess sometime in the next few hours.

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t get some of the clamoring for a SSW… a disrupted SPV is more than enough if you want a -AO/NAO more often than not

Yeah at this juncture I just don't want to see a super cold gyre at 10 mb at the beginning of winter. That usually doesn't end well.

Probably not the best look if you are a SPV. Not very cold/ cohesive. This would be a pretty good sign for the winter if it's an accurate depiction for early Dec. Good indication of the TPV location, which would be pretty favorable.

38 here

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He liked a post from one of the crazies 

Truthiness is a hell of a drug.

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dang that looks tasty. 

GEFS X has the same general idea.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is getting serious!  Cape is posting WB maps

About a month early. We got us a Nino, so yeah

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Nice. That will help the PDO

That would be a perfect place for the Aleutian low to park itself.

Halloween edition of Euro weeklies for the end of Nov heading into Dec. Esp nice Pacific look. 

47 here with some on and off light rain overnight into this morning.

0.08" of rain. Temp down to 52. Hopefully I don't see 80 again until June.

After another gross ass high of 78, temp down to 59. Dropped 10 degrees in 20 mins a couple hours ago. Finally, get this summery crap outa here.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

May I refer you to a better source given your preferences