CAPE

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just have to stay with that look for 10 days 

Take it fwiw, but recent runs of the weeklies/extended products continue the same general h5 look well into Dec. Realistically the pattern will be variable with milder spells, but it's nice to see the guidance continue to advertise a favorable pattern overall.

44 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Seems like maybe a 3 to 6 day window after Thanksgiving.  Already feels better than last year.

maybe a bit longer

Nice s****l for a D10 mean.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Interesting that they’re essentially tossing the GFS’s idea from the last couple runs of a system forming down south and riding up the boundary to firehose us on Thanksgiving.

Curious to see if the GFS stays its course over the next few runs or corrects back to a solution similar to the one we’ve been seeing for some time.

I looked at the EPS members this morning and there were a few that had the GFS idea of developing another low. Something to keep any eye on over the next couple model cycles.

Front moving through now. Wind has kicked up with an increase in clouds. No rain ofc, but it sounds like it with all the leaves plopping on the roof.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD wrt Thanksgiving day-

However, some models/ensemble members, most notably the 00Z GFS, depict another closed mid level low developing, resulting in surface cyclogenesis, with another round of precipitation possible on Thursday as the low slides off shore over Delmarva. For now, I`ve stayed close to a consensus blend that doesn`t include the GFS as I can`t recall another event with an evolution like this, and so far this seems to be an outlier solution. Therefore, the forecast keeps Thanksgiving dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

There is a fairly persistent indication(I won't say signal) on the ensembles in the LR for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. This varies from run to run ofc. The 27th -30th seems to be the window. 

Verbatim on the 0z EPS this would be a light snow, mostly falling to our south over S VA/NC.

Remains to be seen if anything materializes during this period, but the advertised h5 look is pretty damn nice. Rather see it a month later though.

Da hell is going in in here?  Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas.

A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe.

KC was a winner last night. With Bengals falling to 5-5, losing Burrow for at least a couple games, and the Andrews injury, they are (once again) clearly in the driver's seat.

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Big W tonight, but it wasn’t without a big blow. Andrews done for season. 
 

Next man up! Need the WR room to step up, as well as Likely and Kollar. Likely has shown flashes, but he’s also shown he can get lost out there. Need him to step into the role. 

Losing Andrews is a big blow to any SB aspirations imo. He is that valuable. Always money, and Lamar's security blanket. Is what it is though. That style of tackling needs to be looked at, but in today's NFL it's already hard enough for defenders to make 'clean' hits and tackles.

Some cold Nov rain would make me happy. Dust bowl out there.

10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

that's true but it's pretty much guaranteed when you have that type of signature and u have a whole tpv lobe coming down with a storm

Looks like it will be chilly for a spell.

The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see.

Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This post is catnip for Ravens Rule.  

There was a similar post in that thread a few days ago and the RR-signal went out. He rarely misses.

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@CAPE I got to use your pfp for an example of -NAO blocking on an AP environmental science worksheet today and how it sets up colder conditions on the east coast. It was all about how NAO and el nino/nina affects the weather and I've never been so ready for an assignment in my life.

Awesome. I bet you were ready given all the discussion about atmospheric blocking and ENSO on this forum. That pic is a composite from Dec 1 to Feb 15 iirc, during the epic 2009-10 season ofc.

The 0z EPS looks quite active around the 28th too. When I made the original posts early this morning that run had not completed yet.

SPV is forecast to be somewhat perturbed going forward. Can see a nice stretch and on the temp anomaly panel it looks a bit toasty.

Forecast strength and position of the SPV at 10 and 50 mb, along with TPV locations at h5-

GEPS has it too- a bit further south.

Nice signal on the 0z GEFS with a discrete shortwave that tracks NE to the MA coast on the 28th.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Once again showing the trough near Hawaii and at least a lobe over the TPV on our side of the globe. Nice.

Don't forget the -h5 height anomalies across the mid south/SE up into the MA. Classic Nino.

A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years.

57 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Shocking. Lol 

The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter. 

HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What the frickle is Spire?

A model based on collecting a ton of data from satellites combined with AI/machine learning