CAPE

High of 37 after a low of 21.

Need more days like the last 2.

Somewhat disparate looks between the latest run of the GEFS and GEPS in the AO/NAO space at D15. Probably in part related to uncertainty with the MJO progression. Can still see hints of an h5 ridge building towards GL on the GEFS. Anyway, go Canada!

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Thank you for being a voice of reason. PSU is hunting big snow for his backyard and his backyard only. Sooner people realize that, sooner they will stop hanging onto his every word. 

I suppose we all have a criteria for what makes a good winter. Part of that is based on one's exact location, climo etc. I think most people here just want winter to feel like winter for the most part, including a few occasions where there is some snow otg.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO. 

Agreed. That plus a little westward shift of the NE PAC low would set us up nicely for early Jan.

10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I thought we all agreed years ago that December no longer acts like a winter month and now March is more like winter. I vote we move the holidays to January to solve all of the board angst.

There is still that little matter of making sure PSU's yard gets a little snow in the next couple weeks otherwise DC winter is screwed.

Next Thursday the 6z GFS has some precip from an inverted trough associated with an offshore low that develops via the clipper shortwave energy. Verbatim its rain though.

low of 21

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns. 

A pattern like that can produce snow though. I know you are hunting KUs, but to me any snow is good. Give me a few moderate events like 2 years ago and I am good. For the record I think the h5 looks we are seeing can deliver once we get into our more favorable climo period. What we don't want to see is a repeat of 1997-98 esp in the current climate regime.

This is a better look for injecting some cold air into our nearby source region. Euro weeklies are similar for the same period.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off.  I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.  

That trough is a feature of a Nino, but its position/strength can vary. Ideally it would be a bit further west, and that might be what we need going forward.

3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Will it be cold enough to snow in Mid-Atlantic? December 6 is my birthday so I am rooting hard for snow.

Remains to be seen. Looks chilly on the ens mean, but not especially cold. For it to work it would take a sharp shortwave with some dig, inducing a strong low just off the NC coast. A lot would have to go right, but isn't that always the case in these parts?

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

“faint to modest indications” is a good motto for our subforum 

In years past I would have said faint or modest "signal", but apparently that word triggers some folks now.

There are faint to modest indications for something on the ensembles for around the 7th. Given the advertised chaotic nature of the flow around that ridge, determining the actual location of the shortwave(s) that would be involved, the interplay, and timing is impossible at this range. Many more model cycles required before we can know if this has legs.

22 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I can definitely see that 5-6th period being our first chance for something, whether that’s snow showers or accumulating snow. One Issue is the ridge positioning, just too far east for my liking. Doesn’t give room for the models to sharpen the trough. Long way out though.


.

Ridge position is going to be what it is based on the location if that GoA trough, which deepens with TPV energy dumping into it. Plenty of shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge then dropping into the base of the downstream trough, and that should sharpen it. It's pretty close to something good as is on the HH GFS.

Low of 27, but temp is up to 31 now.

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Pacific Puke every year.

 

 

 

What he is implying is a massive oversimplification of what is occurring(or advertised to occur) during that period. EAJ extensions generally favor a +PNA

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM both showing coastal development in the Dec 5-7 period that @CAPE has shown a few times on the ensembles. Timing is key with active flow, but there’s cold air nearby. 

The storm for the 5-6th looks mild on the mean but it appears some colder air works in behind it, and there are hints of another wave or 2 in the days that follow. That period should feature some decent snow in the western highlands, and if we are all lucky enough, maybe a little something for PSU land.

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I only considered it because the brewery that I work at sold me the 20 gallon pots at a discount price.  Who knew I'd still spend a small fortune?  Dave (@losetoa6) came over and hooked up the breaker box and I also got some advice from @CAPE about wiring the box.  I built the control panel, but after starting to wire it, I realized I'd burn the house down so a couple of smarter friends (not a difficult trait) helped me out.  I'm not expecting the batches that I brewed yesterday to turn out very good because so much time was spent figuring things out, but we'll see.  It's got a learning curve to it, but it's pretty cool. 

First time I have seen the finished product. Impressive looking set up!

Does the PID control significantly reduce temperature over/undershoot compared to manual or standard On-Off(thermostat) control?

I have a feeling there will be some 'bad trends' posts coming in the LR thread. 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sometimes you gotta win games you don't deserve to win a la the 2023 Steelers, lol This is the first time this year that the defense helped seal the game...followed by Zay. Still can't quite tell where this team is headed...but I think they took a good step on those last two drives.

Given how tough their schedule is the rest of the way, this game was almost a must have. Now the bye and then the Rams at home. They should be 10-3 and pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot.

Nice to see the offense seal it in a close game. Defense played very well.

The offense disappearing in the second half has been a major contributor to their 3 blown leads and losses this season. That was a bad series after a big forced turnover by Clowney.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Annnnd the defense bails him out, lol

Still dumb.

Harbaugh doesn't force a review of what appeared to be a first down by Lamar, then goes for it instead of taking the 3. Gus Stuffed. SoS from him.

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Weekly Euro control (one ensemble member) clown map? Oof.


.

I really wish this stuff could be confined to the digital snow thread.