CAPE

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS also making a shift towards much more medium range -NAO blocking

The GEFS/EPS have been depicting a nice a ridge in the NAO domain over multiple runs for the very end of Nov/first few days of Dec, induced by the deep upper trough that digs south, brings the cold shot and shifts NE over eastern Canada. After the first few days of Dec it morphs into more of a Hudson Bay ridge though, as the TPV shifts north/EPO ridge breaks down. The GEPS seems to be following the same progression in the NA, just taking a few more days. The PAC is a better look at the end of the GEPS run though.

Not directly related to our weather in the near term, but beginning later this week the longwave pattern will support cold air draining southeast from Siberia across the very warm Sea of Japan, and sea effect snow season in NW Japan will begin. Continued cold air excursions should also aid in cooing the warm pool east of Japan, and the parade of NPAC cyclones along the polar boundary will help establish the Aleutian low for winter. A persistent Aleutian low is favored in a Nino, and if that parks in a favorable location, one (positive) effect will be to help cool the waters north of Hawaii, encouraging the PDO to trend more towards neutral.

For the first time in awhile a forecast of widespread heavy rain across the area delivered. Seems just about everywhere received at least 1.5", most places 2"+.

Hopefully this occurs a few times this winter with precip of the frozen variety.

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.

It has been awhile. WDI?

2.05"

There was a period of torrential rain overnight, like summertime lol. Woke me up.

The guidance continues to hint at a wave or waves ejecting eastward from the southwest for the end of the month. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the biggest issue(other than climo) is associated with energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the southward displaced TPV. Busy northern stream. Ideally a wave taking the southern route would be timed such that it can remain intact as it progresses eastward without being directly underneath or in the immediate wake of NS vorticity. Some sort of a phase is another possibility. Guidance struggles with these types of patterns at range so we keep monitoring.

Looking ahead to early Dec, there are some mixed signals on the ensembles, partly associated with the MJO progression. In general it appears the primary TPV will retreat well to the northwest and a ridge will build into central Canada, while we lose the Aleutian low/ -EPO. The NS would become more 'quiet' in this scenario, but the central and eastern US would become milder. There may be a brief window the first few days Dec for a wave to track underneath as the pattern transitions with some cold still around. Goes without saying that the risk for frozen in the lowlands is pretty low for this entire period. If the current MJO continues to progress/weaken, we should see a return to a colder pattern mid December.

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

the weeklies have had a mild early to mid December for as long as i can remember. So i am ready for that. But if we dont turn around Dec 20 like the weeklies say...............

...the Ji pre-Christmas meltdown will commence.

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

amazing how models dried up as soon as they saw cold. Models..cold...snow...PSU....they all hate us

And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. 

Will you be able to keep it together?

The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

FWIW (not much), yesterdays GEFS extended has similarities around Xmas.

Latest MJO forecasts- GEFS takes the wave into phase 3 as it rapidly weakens, and entering the COD as it gets to phase 4. Euro weakens it as it progresses through phase 2 and into the COD before phase 3. All the models on the CPC site have the convection suppressed at the end of Nov.

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Pattern shown around Xmas at Roundy’s link would get a lot of fans

 

Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter.

low of 33 here

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Stillers again gonna fall backassward into a win with like 150 yards of total offense. Making me nuts 

Thankfully no. Love to see it.

Go Browns. No idea why they didn't challenge when Pickett got sacked. That was clearly a safety.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I stand corrected on the exact amounts in your backyard, but my point is that had those storms not occurred at all, I’d be a lot more concerned.

Agreed. If the beaches at this latitude are able to get multiple big snows in that stretch, including 2 blizzards, that implies bad luck with wave timing more than anything else. The cold was obviously available.

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I have to agree with this. 

How we miss is important information. 

If we get multiple great tracks, but end up getting almost all rain (Feb 1987 adjusted to today’s climate, or full 97-98 seasons on repeat) - then that’s very bad news. Keep in mind I’m not just talking about one storm, but multiple (4-6x) storms in a single winter. 

Otoh, if NC gets crushed and we get a near miss (2018)… or @CAPE gets hit with 20” while we smoke cirrus (multiple times in the last 5-7 years), then we probably will need another nino to get our answer.

 

Most of that action was east of me. I got in on all those events but only the storm in early Jan 22 produced over 8" here. Outside of the 2 clunker winters, it's been quite a run for coastal DE since 2017 relative to avg snowfall there.

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Why are we having this conversation now rather than the end of February?  DC averages .1 of snow in November.  

It's not about DC. At least 1-2" of slop over the next 10 days at Mt PSU is a must have. Failure could portend a disastrous outcome for actual winter.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think.

That winter featured a Monster GoA low iirc. Our source region was flooded with Pacific air most of the time.

it's been months since we have seen a WPC qpf map like this.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If we fail this year because we get a canonical Nino longwave pattern and it’s just too warm…or because even a relatively strong Nino is no longer enough to break the  pacific base state, I don’t want to hear anymore “but this or that” crap. Then we KNOW. I am banking that we can still win (just less often) but this is it. If we can’t win with this years enso/qbo then shut the lights.  So either way this winter will be very productive. 
 

 

or shit the blinds?

29 here this morning

The longwave pattern on the means continues to look interesting and it's easy to see the potential. It's also a 'busy' one with shortwaves from the NPac riding over the western ridge and dropping southward, combined with spokes of vorticity rotating southward on the west side of the TPV. There is also energy moving eastward in the flow underneath the ridge. This type of (split flow) pattern will feature plenty of wave interactions, and the models will likely struggle more than usual at range. Given enough cold pressing southward, the easy path to victory early in the season would be a healthy shortwave ejecting eastward from the SW and tracking along the thermal boundary. Would need favorable timing/spacing between a southern wave and any NS energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV. 

Browns to bring in Flacco for a workout. Good move by them. Perplexing on the surface why the Jets didn't sign him immediately after Rodgers went down, knowing Wilson is a terrible QB, and the Jets have a good running game and great defense. The answer ofc is the shitty GM who drafted Wilson still wants to 'prove' he is a legit starting QB. Browns and Jets fans are so tortured.

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

33 days “Technically” 

Met winter. Each season is 3 months. Logical.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter is always 10 days away in he Mid Atlantic!

Technically it's 13 days away.