CAPE

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I don't need big blocking. Just get me some cold air delivery and I'll be happy with a fast-moving system that throws precip over that cold.

I think I see a hint of split flow on that EPS image, as well.

That's 40 days away. Not a chance in hell these extended products have a clue what the NAO domain will actually look like. More likely the Pacific will be somewhat close to reality- looks Nino-ish. That said, I agree with you. NA blocking hasn't produced much here lately. Cross polar flow with advancing cold and a well timed wave along the thermal boundary has.

1 minute ago, katabatic said:

What is their map for this year?

The article with numbers is posted in the November LR thread.

11 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

 Them last year:

I think maybe too much attention is paid to the SST anomalies in attempting to characterize ENSO events, instead of the actual temperatures. Look at where the highest SSTs are, and that  aligns with the location of strongest forcing- albeit relatively weak.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on

The NPAC gyre and associated currents affect the PDO and the (warm) SSTs near Japan, but understanding all the variables and intricacies is beyond the scope of my interest lol. I have other things to do.

Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive.

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

hi again

Maybe you have finally figured it out. I doubt it though. I predict many Ji "disaster" posts based on LR GFS op runs.

12 hours ago, Ji said:

welcome Nino

 

6z GFS: Hi Nina

We need some precip. Soil is parched. Blowing leaves kicks up a lot of dust. The farmers doing their Fall thing create ground level dust storms.

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

So your saying expect I should expect 70 inches this year? I like your thinking. 

Not sure about that, but it should be a little better than an inch or whatever fell there last winter lol.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Apparently its more fun to post 384H OP temp anomaly maps. 

Yeah, let it be mild in Nov. Who cares. Only point I am making is the longwave pattern can look like crap in mid to late Nov in a developing Nino, and there is not much to be gleaned from that wrt the character of winter as a whole. I really don't expect this Dec to be anything like 2009, but it could be decent. My thinking is mid Jan through Feb will be the favorable period where we may get just enough cold with a more favorable HL look, in conjunction with an established STJ.

Not saying this is how it will go, but this is where we are at h5 on the means roughly 10 days from now..

Compare it to around the same time Nov of 2009-

And this is where the pattern ended up  a few weeks later-

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowman needs a Webb-Roundy coctail fix like a junkie needs dope right about now...dude must have the shakes

The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.

High of 72 here, but temps dropped into the 60s mid/late afternoon with some clouds moving in. Currently 60.

Not much of interest in the near term other than modest rain chances for some areas late this week and a chilly period late weekend into early next week. Outside chance eastern areas get brushed by a coastal storm off of NC early next week. 

Towards Thanksgiving there are hints of some change in the pattern, with a -EPO and a neutral/slightly positive PNA. AO and NAO look to remain somewhat positive. There is still a signal for a storm leading up to Thanksgiving. Still looks mild but might be our next best shot at some widespread rain across the region.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Ravens revamped “pass happy” offense and they just run the ball down team’s throats lol

They are who we thought they were. I would like to see Lamar with more TD passes, but when you can dominate on the ground like that, you eat clock and demoralize a defense.

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Also...can we take a few moments and just admire what this defense is doing? This may be the greatest defense we've had since 2000. Wow

They are. And still without Williams, Bowser, and Ojabo lol.

Ravens are so good at the UFA game.

Mitchell baby! Finally. What a find he was. Feel bad for Dobbins, but he is probably done as a Raven.

From 37 to 67. Feels even warmer.

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Yesterday was kind of funny going to the Maryland Beer Fest. Everything tasted the exact same. 

I bet Terrapin Depth Perception DIPA would have stimulated those taste buds a bit. Super hoppy on the front end.

7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I first got symptoms of a cold the weekend of September 9th. I had a dentist appt on the 12th and in trying to be respectful, I took a Covid test and was negative. Since then I’ve been diagnosed with bronchitis and most recently a sinus infection. I’ve been on two antibiotics, prednisone, albuterol, and steroid nasal sprays. The bronchitis cleared up with the first antibiotic and the albuterol. It just never cleared my head so I had a snot culture last Thursday. It’s not officially a sinus infection because the results aren’t back but she was confident enough to start a new antibiotic. I’m feeling better after a day and a half of amoxicillin, but still congested, especially my right ear. I lost taste and smell 17 days ago. 

I’ve tested myself a few times throughout for Covid, but I think I missed the contagious window, so never a positive result. It’s been frustrating but not debilitating. I haven’t missed any work though I probably have spread some of it around. 

I do think it’ll get better soon. @mattie g gave me hope when he said he lost angio something or other for three weeks. 

Wow pretty protracted but sounds like you are on the mend. I had an ear infection during the summer of covid(not from covid though) and was given amoxicillin, which caused a severe body rash. No more of that stuff. Took prednisone to get rid of the rash. Loved that shit while it lasted lol. Happy pills.

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Still no taste or smell here. 

How long has it been? And iirc you didn't test positive for COVID?

1 hour ago, George BM said:

What IPAs are you and everyone else in here celebrating this great day with?

It's also a great NFL football day. 4 matchups of top teams beginning with KC and Miami in Germany. Kickoff at 930am, so ofc I will start off with a Breakfast Stout from Flying Dog. I have some DFH 90 min IPAs in the fridge so might have one of those later. Depending on how the Ravens play, I might just go straight to the hard stuff. 

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. 

Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts.

A lot depends on the Pac jet strength/position of the exit region. Recent ens runs are digging a trough into the GoA just beyond mid month, but right at the end of the runs it seems to flatten and the PNA appears to trend positive. Definitely some volatility wrt the Pacific pattern. I have no expectations for November/early Dec other than seasonable weather, and we could use a little rain.