CAPE

We in the slight risk for excessive drizzle.

Congrats NC

This is like the weather in the UK in early August, but with less sun lol.

Another day of perpetual drizzle. Tomorrow is the day to get outside and do something. Looks like more shower chances for the end of the week.

True, but less noisy than looking at every run. Goes back and forth every 10 days to 2 weeks typically. CFS is a somewhat of a useful tool maybe a month out.

This is a more realistic depiction of what the CFS is currently advertising for December. Not saying it has the right idea, but you can't glean anything useful about the potential longwave pattern a couple months out from a single run of the CFS.

Cherry picking a single run of the CFS is worth less than usual with seasonal models. It runs so frequently it changes like the wind. TT does the average of the last 12 runs. For the past couple weeks it has looked more Nina- just invert everything on the panel above.

Imagine being Sean Payton. He should retire again, immediately.

It was, plus the missed face mask. They deserved the loss despite a couple of non-calls though. No excuse to not be able to just run the clock out after the safety and free kick. They really do need to get some players healthy and back in there too- Gus going out left them with 2 backs that were on the practice squad, and both have fumble problems. The OL was not good in pass protection, and Lamar needs to learn to just throw it away.

Ravens earned that. Well deserved!

Decent soaking rain, although well below what was forecast for here. Minimal wind. Didn't have a 'tropical' feel at all. Outside of a random shower this morning, 1.12" will be the total. Just over 6" for the month now.

Mostly light to occasionally moderate rain today, broken up by many very brief heavy downpours. Kinda odd. 0.96" so far.

Been in this dry slot for a couple hours now. Just wind driven drizzle. Some decent gusts. Lets see what this afternoon has in store with the low getting closer and more instability. Sitting at a half inch.

0.43" so far from these moderate to heavy showers rotating through.

Finally getting some moderate to heavy rain here with bands moving in from the SE. That initial WAA rain shield seemed to mostly dry up.

Getting an early sprinkle here with easterly winds off the ocean.

Just missed here in July. 10 in Sept is definitely doable at this point.

Updated forecast for here. Upped the wind from 35 and increased rainfall totals. Tonight Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 8pm. Low around 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then rain between 11am and 2pm, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 68. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Saturday Night Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Low around 62. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

It fits! Great tune too.

It's not really a loop, it's a surface low that gets induced as the upper ridge retrogrades/reamplifies and pinches off a piece of h5 energy, sending it southward underneath. Nice upper jet too. Remains to be seen if its real, but this blocky pattern appears to have some persistence.

Globals can't resolve the convective elements. Go with the CAMs.

SPC disco mentions the risk for D2. Marginal, and for now confined to eastern VA into S MD and lower Delmarva

Probably just a lot of rain here. Might see some gusts to 30 or so. Found this interesting little nugget buried in the very extensive AFD from Mount Holly this morning:

Coastal DE would be a good local chase spot. Probably see 4" of rain with winds gusting to near 60 mph tomorrow.