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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    2.05" There was a period of torrential rain overnight, like summertime lol. Woke me up.
  2. CAPE
    The guidance continues to hint at a wave or waves ejecting eastward from the southwest for the end of the month. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the biggest issue(other than climo) is associated with energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the southward displaced TPV. Busy northern stream. Ideally a wave taking the southern route would be timed such that it can remain intact as it progresses eastward without being directly underneath or in the immediate wake of NS vorticity. Some sort of a phase is another possibility. Guidance struggles with these types of patterns at range so we keep monitoring. Looking ahead to early Dec, there are some mixed signals on the ensembles, partly associated with the MJO progression. In general it appears the primary TPV will retreat well to the northwest and a ridge will build into central Canada, while we lose the Aleutian low/ -EPO. The NS would become more 'quiet' in this scenario, but the central and eastern US would become milder. There may be a brief window the first few days Dec for a wave to track underneath as the pattern transitions with some cold still around. Goes without saying that the risk for frozen in the lowlands is pretty low for this entire period. If the current MJO continues to progress/weaken, we should see a return to a colder pattern mid December.
  3. CAPE
    ...the Ji pre-Christmas meltdown will commence.
  4. CAPE
    And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. Will you be able to keep it together?
  5. CAPE
    The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.
  6. CAPE
    Latest MJO forecasts- GEFS takes the wave into phase 3 as it rapidly weakens, and entering the COD as it gets to phase 4. Euro weakens it as it progresses through phase 2 and into the COD before phase 3. All the models on the CPC site have the convection suppressed at the end of Nov.
  7. CAPE
    Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter.
  8. CAPE
    low of 33 here
  9. CAPE
    Thankfully no. Love to see it.
  10. CAPE
    Go Browns. No idea why they didn't challenge when Pickett got sacked. That was clearly a safety.
  11. CAPE
    Agreed. If the beaches at this latitude are able to get multiple big snows in that stretch, including 2 blizzards, that implies bad luck with wave timing more than anything else. The cold was obviously available.
  12. CAPE
    Most of that action was east of me. I got in on all those events but only the storm in early Jan 22 produced over 8" here. Outside of the 2 clunker winters, it's been quite a run for coastal DE since 2017 relative to avg snowfall there.
  13. CAPE
    It's not about DC. At least 1-2" of slop over the next 10 days at Mt PSU is a must have. Failure could portend a disastrous outcome for actual winter.
  14. CAPE
    That winter featured a Monster GoA low iirc. Our source region was flooded with Pacific air most of the time.
  15. CAPE
    it's been months since we have seen a WPC qpf map like this.
  16. CAPE
    or shit the blinds?
  17. CAPE
    29 here this morning
  18. CAPE
    The longwave pattern on the means continues to look interesting and it's easy to see the potential. It's also a 'busy' one with shortwaves from the NPac riding over the western ridge and dropping southward, combined with spokes of vorticity rotating southward on the west side of the TPV. There is also energy moving eastward in the flow underneath the ridge. This type of (split flow) pattern will feature plenty of wave interactions, and the models will likely struggle more than usual at range. Given enough cold pressing southward, the easy path to victory early in the season would be a healthy shortwave ejecting eastward from the SW and tracking along the thermal boundary. Would need favorable timing/spacing between a southern wave and any NS energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV.
  19. CAPE
    Browns to bring in Flacco for a workout. Good move by them. Perplexing on the surface why the Jets didn't sign him immediately after Rodgers went down, knowing Wilson is a terrible QB, and the Jets have a good running game and great defense. The answer ofc is the shitty GM who drafted Wilson still wants to 'prove' he is a legit starting QB. Browns and Jets fans are so tortured.
  20. CAPE
    Met winter. Each season is 3 months. Logical.
  21. CAPE
    Technically it's 13 days away.
  22. CAPE
    Take it fwiw, but recent runs of the weeklies/extended products continue the same general h5 look well into Dec. Realistically the pattern will be variable with milder spells, but it's nice to see the guidance continue to advertise a favorable pattern overall.
  23. CAPE
    maybe a bit longer
  24. CAPE
    Nice s****l for a D10 mean.
  25. CAPE
    I looked at the EPS members this morning and there were a few that had the GFS idea of developing another low. Something to keep any eye on over the next couple model cycles.
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