CAPE

The NPAC jet is ever-present and upstream so it has a major influence on the pattern. If it is stronger now/ going forward, then it will run the show even more. Frequent and longer lasting HL blocking episodes would help to mitigate the Pacific issues. We need a 1960s-like streak lol.

Simplified explanation- The left exit region of the jet core = strong speed divergence, so low pressure at the surface and an h5 trough. Ridge out in front. If the desired result is a +PNA, we want an extended jet to shift the trough/ridge eastward some. If it extends too much, trough approaches west coast and PNA ridge shifts into central US. Delicate balance.

The primary jet core is actually retracted at this point- Right at the end of run the jet core is strengthening/starts to extend. Roll that forward and that ridge axis should be positioned further eastward along the west coast of N America.

The high was 25 here yesterday. Roads were generally bad in the open areas with blowing/drifting snow. Low early this morning was 18. Currently 21. Probably get close to 32 today, then we begin our mild/warm stretch. 60+ by the end of the week?

Lamar and 'quarterbacky' trending on twitter, er X. (Musk is such a dick).

Lamar's critics can stfu now.

Lamarvelous!

Ravens are a good frontrunner team. Not so good when they get involved in tight games where they aren't so sharp.

Damn just get to the half and regroup. Texans are feeling it.

Ravens looking a little tight rn. That punt return TD was an unacceptable debacle.

This would be a respectable look for the second week of Feb. The advertised h5 pattern becomes even more favorable beyond that, like the GEFSX panel you posted above. We have seen these looks persistently from the extended products, but it makes (more) sense given it's later in winter and the Nino should be weakening some.

15 currently and that is the low. edit- down to 14 now

It is odd but hints are there on the ensembles. It's the only window where there is anything of interest outside of another mild/rainy period- flood threat maybe?

Just to be clear about the advertised Pac jet configuration, this is a jet extension with the core of the jet further east/exit region near the west coast, with an associated +PNA. This outcome can vary somewhat as there are also shifts poleward/equatorward associated Nina/Nino tendencies, which along with extensions/retractions are influenced by the location of tropical forcing(MJO). A few days later when the H5 pattern 'gets crappy' this is the jet configuration- a retracting/weaker jet core and the NPAC h5 trough expands/shifts eastward(-PNA) If the NA was more favorable at this point, the overall h5 pattern would be more acceptable for our purposes despite the -PNA. Not binary- we usually need more than just this or that - rather a blend- to increase snow chances.

This stuff isn't binary. It's rarely just this OR that. Lots of in between possibilities.

Transient, well timed

Usually antithetical to our desired outcome in the MA, but every once in awhile it can work.

Sure but the biggest problem is the NA. You don't think we would have a much more favorable h5 look with that Pacific and a -NAO?

There is at least a chance here because the Pacific is pretty favorable, and the NAO is so positive it contributes to a 50-50 low.

Seems like it forces a +PNA to me.

I think he got 4 by the end of Dec so you DC area folk are fine! No correlation to my yard thankfully.

Pretty far above avg snowfall for the month here! If only Feb could be normal..

Facetious. Damn you are the second one who didn't get it. I guess I have to do better.

Agree completely. That was mostly my point. There is a chance though(not a shit the blinds pattern), because of the favorable(as advertised) Pacific, but without NA help it is a thread the needle deal and we likely go back to mild for a time.

Yeah that is a possible outcome.