CAPE

As usual.

Pretty much. Just too sloppy to beat that team at their place. The missed throw to Flowers open in the endzone a play or 2 earlier was big. He was open and Lamar sailed it instead of throwing a dart. Gotta make that throw in that moment.

Likely's feet are too big. Nice to see the refs continue to contribute to the success of the Chiefs. I guess Illegal formation is a new 'point of emphasis'. As usual plenty of non/missed calls against the Chiefs. As expected the Ravens OL a little shaky, and the Defense was a bit too porous against the pass. Nate Wiggins please. Lamar played well, but he won't last the season if he has to do that every game.

NFL is back! What a way to start. Wish the Ravens weren't on the road against KC right off the bat. OL may take awhile to gel. Lamar is due to have a big game against the Chiefs- only 1-4 and the numbers are pretty mediocre. Best case is the OL can get some push and Henry breaks some big runs to open things up. eta- more than 6 rush attempts please.

That's what I have been doing. I do a section at a time. I just put more seed down yesterday, and with no significant rain in sight, the watering will have to continue.

Maybe a few passing sprinkles? Very dry here after below avg rain in August. Sprinkler working overtime.

The so called law of averages. Suarez was way due for a crap outing, and the Whitesox have to win once in awhile. Still time for the historically bad sox to do sox like things. Orioles really needed to take care of business tonight though. Coming down to the wire and they are going to have to beat actual real teams.

Probably should leave now. Maybe Hyde can bring Kimbrel in to hold em till the bats come alive lol.

50

Probably should get used to this sort of thing for the upcoming Winter.

But he is young with potential! Maybe tonight. Really need Grayson back asap.

Whitesox are 4-41 in their last 45 games. Let that sink in. Law of averages.

IIRC the 2018 Nina was fading, but probably still officially considered weak when the mid March snowstorm happened.

They need to sweep the worst team in baseball, a historically bad team. Get a little mojo, then go from there and see what happens.

Good info. Anecdotally, the Nina winters since 2016 have overall(minus the dud) produced better outcomes (snow) here than neutrals or Ninos. The 2022 Nina was actually better here than the 2016 Nino.

Remember how epic the Nino of last winter was going to be? Those big coastal storms late winter, with just enough cold! I will take the over this winter. Over meaning more snow than last winter, which was 8-10 inches for the DC area. That would be a pretty good outcome for a Nina with high solar, and increasing QBO. The PDO isn't a factor because its has been stuck negative for awhile, and is unfavorable more times than not during a Nina.

Fall feel out there. 68/59 and breezy. The lowering sun angle is becoming more notable.

It's more reseeding than over seeding. Some places the grass survives and others it goes to thatch. Plus moss grows in between in many places. So I have to hard rake, rip out the moss and thatch, then I take a shovel and chop to loosen up the soil, remove clover, leftover moss etc. Then rake all that crap out lol. Then I put down the seed, fertilizer, and cover with a layer of peat moss, followed by EZ straw on top- great stuff btw if you haven't tried it.

Getting some showers rolling through here now, as pathetic as it is lol. Moderate downpour currently but it wont last more than 30 seconds. Might pick up a few hundredths. Airmass is juicy, but too bad the forcing is weak and the upper levels are unimpressive.

Yeah if they can't manage a series win against lowly Colorado when they desperately need to get on track, that's not a good sign. If Hyde calls on Kimbrel one more damn time short of them being down by 10 runs in the fifth.. Unbelievable how bad he is at this. Might be time for a managerial change if they squeak in and then exit early again.

Sipping on a WWS. Been awhile since I have had one of these, and I must say I am enjoying the hell out of it.

Mostly the pitchers. Ridiculous. If they are going to have any chance in the postseason the offense needs to get going again.

Yeah it looks dry overall, but again that is to be expected on these models during a Nina. Odds are we get a few shots at a storm with cold in place. The difference between a complete ratter and something like 2022 is basically timing/luck. One thing about a Nina is there will be available cold air to the NW. Just need a mechanism to bring it south, and an EPO ridge + the TPV on our side can do that. Not sure Ninos can work for us anymore with Canada being above avg. A Modoki would be the real test. If that fails..

The new edition of the CanSIPS is out, and it is pretty similar to the previous run. Both the CFS and CanSIPS are indicating that the Aleutian ridge may be biased poleward, in conjunction with a southeastward stretched TPV. I don't see any indication of a raging +NAO on either model(not that that necessarily means much). Seasonal LR guidance can provide some hints but are generally 'boilerplate' wrt the longwave pattern. Remember the great Nino looks we were all getting excited about this time last year? The CanSIPS also has a Scandi ridge with suggestion of a neutral NAO, and perhaps episodes where that ridge builds westward into the NAO domain. Looking at the surface, there is the typical colder than avg for Canada and the northern tier of the US, but if the TPV does verify in that location along with some -EPO periods, there certainly could be a few cold air outbreaks that push the thermal boundary further south and east. Overall I would expect a mild winter for the MA, but it only takes a well timed wave or 2 when the cold presses southward to get close to climo in the lowlands. We have seen this work out several times in recent Nina winters.

Mesos aren't too impressed. Not expecting much here. Most of the coastal plain is back to abnormally dry. My only concern is the new grass. Easy enough to water to get it to germinate, but not so easy to get a deep watering with the sprinkler to get the roots established. Hopefully the late week/weekend potential becomes reality.