CAPE

It's just an interpretation of the super long range guidance wrt the HL look, and how the progression typically goes before big storm chances enter the picture. Those better looks could develop/mature sooner. How about KU potential mid month and beyond? Better?

For a few runs now the GFS has been indicating strong surface HP building southward from central/eastern Canada with a storm developing along the Gulf coast around Feb 6th. It is depicting an anticyclonic wave break as the amplified upper ridge builds towards Hudson Bay, capturing TPV lobes and sending them southward towards Atlantic Canada, which creates confluence in the area downstream of the ridge/backside of the vortex. That results in strong HP at the surface. We shall see how real that is. GEFS has the look of confluence with the compressed/flattened west-east height lines to our north, and hints of shortwave energy embedded in the southern stream. Biggest issue on the mean for this timeframe is lack of cold air.

Late Feb into early March would be the prime time for something big looking at the h5 evolution on the weeklies/extended products verbatim. Subject to some change ofc.

Based on the currently advertised pattern progression, we could see a significant event in the 10-15th window. HECS potential likely begins around PD imo.

I may have to give ignore a go. Never thought I would, but I have a tendency to read/reply to posts I should just bypass.

Lmao. Same experience here, minus the trail of piss and shit. Great period. Still mostly snow covered ground, day 8. Had a fantastic hike at Tuckahoe on Sunday before the football games.

@Bob Chillwarned me about this a few years ago lol. Losing the fun aspect. Fatiguing. Better things to do. I think I am there dude.

Done.

@osfan24 What's not average? I said average(avg) once. Nothing to do with snowfall. My post was in reference to the finite number of periods where we get a pattern that is supportive of below average temps (with snow chances) in a typical winter for this region, regardless of ENSO state. No mention of Nino, Nina, climo/ any specific amounts of snow, or expectations. And who of us are 'crazy' and for what reason?

I was responding to PSU, who for some odd reason jumped in and replied to my post to go on some tangent related to yours. You still can't read for context. Want me to repost my op and your reply and go over it with you with one word at a time? We can do that in banter if you would like.

Give it a rest dude. Your "point" had nothing to do with what I said in my post. And show me where I said you attacked anyone. You might want to take that one up with PSU.

No worries. Hope you feel better soon.

It was just odd you replied to my post to begin with. What you chose to go on a soapbox over was unrelated to the context of the discourse.

Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.

Quite possibly. But weren't you just moaning about punting away weeks of winter this morning over this same look though? Good to see you got your mind right.

You are off on a tangent here. Maybe re-read some of the posts leading up to my reply to his post.

Maybe the recent cooling near the MC will encourage a shift in the convection further eastward into the Central Pac.

MJO and ENSO are intertwined. Location and magnitude of tropical forcing does matter. Ofc so do a lot of other indices. Complex and esoteric.

In my initial post (that you replied to) I didn't mention anything about climo or expectations. We need periods with a favorable pattern to give us a chance for snow. We just had one and we got some snow. Guidance suggests the next favorable period will be centered on mid Feb. We are probably 10 days away from the next trackable threat.

2009-10 was once in a lifetime. Modoki Nino and sustained strong HL blocking. It was cold enough every time it needed to be.

Nino's give us a better chance of a big winter storm. That's it. And if we get a 2 week period in Feb with a favorable pattern, it may very well happen. Some folks should just stay out of the discussion threads.

I wonder what would cause you to make a comparison between the snow climo of Leesburg, VA and Greenville, SC.

I grew up south of Westminster at 850 feet elevation. Yeah snow climo is better overall than places SE of the Fall line, but I remember plenty of frustrating periods, and also being fringed lol.

Regardless of ENSO state, we are lucky to get more than 3 weeks total where it's both cold enough and there are storm chances. Where the fuck do these people think they live?