CAPE

I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.

What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.

I told you there was big potential for that window. Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.

We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above.

Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.

That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.

Latest blend- snow and ice

We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.

Low of 10

14.5/7 at 10pm

They bold! Nah, just stupid. TWC has been irrelevant and just silly for a long time now. Sad.

I'll give it some credit- for looking a lot like some of the better models at that point lol.

Still useful. 12km not so much.

yes