CAPE

The snow part depends on how hot and heavy it is at the beginning. We need it to come in and go moderate to heavy pretty quickly, and for the snow to last several hours. That's our chance to pick up 5 or 6" before the sleet takes over. As for freezing rain, it looks like there is a decent chance for you and I to pick up a quarter inch of ice, then maybe ending as plain rain with a temp of 33-34. Closer to the coast there will be a a longer duration of rain, and little to no zr.

And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing.

More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.

Its been showing up on the GEFS and EPS the last few runs too. Looks like a 1-2, maybe 3" potential on the op runs. A difference in location between the GFS and the Euro(further sw/south).

10 is the current temp and the low.

Low is offshore on the EPS but still some precip(snow) for the region on the mean. Overall the ridge position/orientation needs to change some from what is currently depicted so the trough/shortwave energy can dig and become neutral a little further west.

Lovely to wake up and read this from Mt Holly The narrow corridor of highest ice accumulations has shifted southeast, now focused over South Jersey, central Delaware, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region.

HRRR look good. Primative grunt.

33 heading to 10 Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.

No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.

Your area did pretty well didn't it?

Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.

What, this?

I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.