CAPE

Yet south of there- eastern MD and DE- have done very well with snowfall wrt to avg since 2017. Rehoboth has had 3 or 4 blizzards between 2017 and last year. Pretty anomalous.

The PDO has been negative for years and we have still managed to snow. Most of those years have been Ninas(correlates to -PDO) so we shall see how it goes with a strong Nino. I would expect it to trend positive as we head into Fall.

SA is very talented, but young. They aren't going anywhere. If the Knicks blow this their window to win a championship is probably closed. Now or never.

lol Knicks

0.43" Not bad. Need a lot more.

49 this morning

Microclimates due to terrain effects, mostly in the western areas(orographic lift/rain shadow) largely determine winners and losers. In areas at lower elevations it is random in a lot of cases, but there are localized boundaries that can help trigger storms due to bay/sea breezes enhancing lift in some cases. When a legit cold front runs into a warm, unstable airmass the chances for more widespread coverage of storms is increased, but there will still be locales that maximize more than others. Again over time, that seems to even out. A linear/elongated line of storms(QLCS) probably gives the best chance for all in the affected area to be impacted in a similar way.

Yeah there was another downpour here around midnight. Ended up with 0.15" for the day. Was expecting nothing ofc.

Wow a brief downpour with a gust of wind, then a bit of lighter rain. Didn't amount to much ofc but nice to know its still possible lol. 0.07" !!

Agree. Just got to keep watering the plants. See how drought tolerant the clover is. Grass is going quick.

Just over 6" total here for MAM. Something needs to change.

you rang?

That's a Nino-ish look. The general idea is pretty good for a seasonal tool at this range. It would probably look even better for Jan-Feb.

He made the thread ahead of the last rain event, but there was already a Med/LR discussion thread. This one got pinned after that, which really didn't make sense as there was no hint of heavy rain going forward, and there still isnt.

@WxUSAF Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward. Maybe just delete the first part and make it "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion".