CAPE

I mentioned this the other day. Don't tell Chuck.

lol no

Live vicariously. Time sensitive

Kinda sucks that we get a mixed event and end up living on a glacier with extreme cold and dry for a week+ while coastal NC gets a pure snow event with blizzard conditions. Weather does what it does.

^Should be a blizzard warning in effect there

Impressive forecast. Haven't seen that here in ages lol.

Not a broad lobe, but a sharp shortwave that is neutral/ going negative, well sure.

I don't look at the AI models very often, and I don't think I am missing anything very insightful most of the time. Mostly seems like a desperation thing when the physics based models aren't advertising what we want. They aren't quite there yet.

Well, lets just say that isn't even close to perfect for the MA. He gets over excited anytime he sees a piece of digging vorticity, regardless of its orientation or location, or whether its sharp or a lobe that wont do anything at the surface.

Good thing about being busy at work all week- I haven't had much time tor tracking anything run to run and get invested. I saw a couple decent runs on the GFS and maybe one on the Euro, but otherwise it's looked like maybe a skiff of snow along a cold front.

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

6, which is over 2 yesterday, which was under

Its supposed to be around 5 mph here. Cold airmass in place, with a glacier otg and clear skies, and the antithesis of UHI around here.. temps should tank.

Forecast low tonight is 4 here. I'll take the under after hitting 2 this morning when the forecast low was 7. Might make a run at 0 if the wind completely dies down.

Make a detailed post discussing the modeled synoptics and why you believe this window holds potential for a winter storm.