CAPE

It's the GFS though. Always a tease even as the preponderance of guidance suggests this is an outright miss. Gotta see something from the Euro.

Chuck was high on this period I think before you, me, and PSU. I think a Chuck storm might be exactly what we need. But if he makes a single post about a negative fucking PNA it automatically gets transferred to someone else.

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

See the panel I posted above. See the wall of HP to the north? Wont be so many pieces of vorticity flying around and digging southward, so simpler perhaps. Look at what we have for the upcoming (non) event compared the advertised h5 look for around the 24th- Still could have some vorticity rotating southward from the TPV, and that would provide confluence as the shortwave in the SW moves eastward- too much of that could be suppressive. There are always obstacles to our ultimate goal lol.

Hell of a signal at range. Look at all that HP to the N/NW.

That map is pretty paltry for most of the region. It might be too optimistic lol.

I'll just post it lol-

Check the 15z run. I think it takes a couple cycles to update. 12z probably still included the last good GFS run. It does seem like it is weighted towards the GFS output to me.

I better get my mind right. I've been told by the man at the top this thing needs to produce.

Yeah its a small tick NW, probably run-to run noise. Something needs to change with the energy dropping southward and how it interacts with the main shortwave. Need it to phase in behind and not stay separate at this point. GFS looks more like the Euro now.

Given the mess of vorticity involved, there is still some hope that this could end up being something decent. 1-3 or something.

It really comes down to h5 and the timing/interaction between the pieces of energy and whether it consolidates in time to take on a neutral/negative tilt. At this point probably a light event is still on the table, but that would probably be more for coastal areas, maybe to I-95. Current guidance(excluding GFS) only has an inch or 2 for the coastal areas of NC and SE VA...that's the jackpot lol. Its weak and mostly offshore.

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

I don't really get emotionally invested anymore. When there is something worth tracking, we track it, but expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs, even at 4-5 days out.

Never get too invested when the GFS is all alone.