CAPE

Reposting this here I guess. Linked from the other thread.

He is delusional. He wont stop.

Timing not resolved at this range.. need that HP to be robust to have a shot at frozen.

Cant lie, I am looking forward to the 50s this weekend, and we shall see what happens early next week. Good luck to the NW crew - hope the wave is significant enough to produce with decent HP to the north. Looks like we all see upper 50s/ low 60s the following weekend as of now.

From Mt Holly AFD- Another low pressure may move into the region early next week, producing another chance of wintry weather. Milder weather will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the Thursday night system, with highs in the 40s for much of the region Friday-Sunday and possibly topping 50 in some areas Saturday. This should help melt some of the existing snow pack. However, a front will send more cold air into the region later Sunday, and hot on its heals some guidance depicts a wave of low pressure riding eastward into the region for Monday. With fresh cold air in place, more wintry weather is certainly possible, though its notable that not all guidance is showing a significant system, some guidance depicting the system much weaker and drier. Thus, while its definitely on our radar, there`s not much more to say about it just yet. This could be a bit more substantial than what we`re expecting tonight/Wednesday and Thursday/Thursday night, but doesn`t currently appear to have potential for a *major* event. More of a run-of-the-mill winter system, if it pans out.

High of 33 after a low of 23. A lot less melting today than yesterday. Still 5" otg most places

March 2-3 still looking interesting with a weakish wave moving eastward underneath cold HP to the north.

What makes you think we should get an HECS next year? Just because a Nino looks likely? And no one knows what the character of it will be at this juncture.

That must have been a hell of a band to produce that much difference in an hour lol

A chance for something here-

Yeah some of these reports are sus. I cant imagine Greensboro got 14". I went with 10. Goldsboro Mesonet had 10.2 max snow depth.

GEFS looks like this could be a snow to mix to probably rain SE of the Fall line. Close on the mean. Need a bit more of a cold push southward. Verbatim the snow is north into PA.

I have legit paid zero attention to this with work going on and the storm yesterday. This is a pretty good look with some decent cold in place and the usual mess of vorticity moving eastward. I might get pulled back in

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" 1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) 2/23: 10" T: 20.8" (above climo by a couple inches)