CAPE

Still seeing the colder than avg surface temps in the northern plains like the previous run. Looking at each month Feb is coldest. The EPO ridge is more amped in JFM and with the advertised TPV position there is a mechanism for cold air delivery from the Polar region, similar to last months edition. The latest CFS looks warmish for Dec and Jan but then quite cold for Feb and March, due to a strong west based -NAO and a weaker/better positioned Aleutian low. All just speculation at this point, but I would expect an overall mild winter with the possibility of timing some cold with a disturbance in the southern stream a time or 2.

I have been incrementally replacing bad deck boards for the last few years. I finally got tired of it(with all the other shit I have to do lol) and contracted a local 'handyman' 2 man company to finish replacing the boards. I should have thought of you! Anyway after the boards age a bit(pressure treated pine) I would like to put a transparent tinted stain on. What do you recommend? I will gladly save that job for you if you want to do it. The 'older' boards have grayed a bit and will need a wash. I won't be home on Sunday btw.

What transparent finish(no hiding of the grain and with a tint that matches the house)can I put on my deck that will look good for more than one season? I have tried several and it is never worth the effort esp being in the woods. Nature always wins. One of the cheaper ones I have tried that lasted as long as Cabot and others that cost twice as much is Flood brand. Everything holds up much longer on the railings but on the deck itself its a year or 2 at most before it goes to crap.

Well, given the SPC issues the watch, that means that specific parameters are expected to be in place for severe storms to develop that could produce a tornado. Reading the NWS AFDs they almost always mention SPC and repeat what they have discussed about the risk(s). So once a storm has formed in a watch area and shows signs(radar indicated) that it could produce a tornado, should they just ignore it because we are in the east and some imaginary quota has been reached? lol this is so dumb.

This thread is pretty fucked up lol. Nothing about an issued watch or warning is complicated.

No idea. Intuitively this doesn't sound right to me. A watch is put into effect when conditions are favorable for tornadic activity to occur. If nothing happens then so what. It was a watch- warning the public of the possibility.

An EF0 and an EF1 Posted the survey results in the Severe weather thread

000 NOUS41 KPHI 301140 CCA PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-300915- Public Information Statement...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 740 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 07/28/26 Tornado Event... .Overview... Severe storms moved into the region during the afternoon of July 28. One of the storms that progressed through Talbot County Maryland produced two distinct tornadoes in Trappe, Maryland. Multiple witnesses reported the tornado that affected the Backtown Road fully dissipated before the storm crossed over Highway 50. The storm then produced another tornado on the east side of Highway 50 near Tarbutton Mill Road. The NWS would like to thank Talbot County Emergency Management and area residents for their assistance in this survey. .Backtown Road Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 90-100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.15 miles Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 28, 2026 Start Time: 6:12 PM EDT Start Location: 1 Mile N Trappe / Talbot County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 38.6719 / -76.0602 End Date: July 28, 2026 End Time: 6:13 PM EDT End Location: 1.1 Miles N Trappe / Talbot County / MD End Lat/Lon: 38.6734 / -76.0592 Survey Summary: Tree damage was noted behind an industrial park on Backtown Road. The highest estimated wind speeds were from roof damage to one of the large metal buildings in the industrial park. The metal roof covering was blown off and some of the roof trusses were damaged. Next to the industrial park large branches were broken on trees in the yard of a residence. The last damage noted was a distinct convergent damage path through part of a corn field on the north side of Backtown Road. Beginning and end points of this path are estimated due to lack of access. .Tarbutton Mill Road Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 70-80 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.34 miles Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 28 2026 Start Time: 6:18 PM EDT Start Location: 1.4 NNE Trappe / Talbot County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 38.6786 / -76.0519 End Date: July 28 2026 End Time: 6:19 PM EDT End Location: 1.6 NE Trappe / Talbot County / MD End Lat/Lon: 38.6792 / -76.0456 Survey Summary: The first damage at this location noted was a large branch broken from a tree. The tornado continued roughly eastward with convergent damage noted in a corn field. At the eastern extent of the damage, two farm outbuildings sustained damage to their roofs. For one building the roofing was completely uplifted, including support beams. For the other building, part of the metal roofing was blown off. &&

But the potential was there based on radar, so the warning is going out at that point, as it should.

We could get a bunch of 'perfect track' rainstorms. The irony of your negative stance is that a strong El Nino is statistically more likely to give you what you want(and esp places NW) than the recent Nina winters- a KU storm.

Ok Deb.

Are we talking about watches or warnings? Seems to me watches are often issued in our area with marginal parameters in place and don't result in an actual confirmed tornado anywhere. Warnings are issued (mostly) based on radar indicated rotation within an ongoing severe storm, for localized (county level) areas. Case in point the cells that were warned on the eastern shore last evening, apparently all produced a tornado. The results from the survey team should be available on Friday.

Do we really get bad air quality anymore? Also if its warmish around Xmas but we get a blizzard in late Jan/early Feb, is that ok? Nino winters generally aren't very cold around here. The historic Modoki of 2009-10 was just cold enough to produce big snowstorms multiple times. The beast of a -NAO had a lot to do with that. The one legit cold powder storm occurred in late Jan after 5 weeks of no snow, and kicked off the pattern that resulted in back to back blizzards.

NFL Football..early Fall. Bring it!

Negative Nancy lol. Sure it can/could happen. But so could 1983 or 2016. You want more cold (and mostly dry) for your area? Root for more Ninas. I love 'em here lately. A strong to very strong Nino is very likely going to produce a mild winter overall, but with a juiced STJ and some favorable periods in the high latitudes to facilitate a week or 2 of cold, there is always the potential for a big east coast snowstorm.