CAPE

Agree, but its a season long thing. What's his record now, 4-10? Could be 10-4 lol

For the most part all of these seasonal/climate models are depicting a boilerplate Nino wrt the h5 height anomalies. Basically we can see its gonna be a Nino and not a Nina lol. Beyond that, the devil will be in the details and we just can't know yet.

If you want to be adventurous, try Dolly Sods. Very rugged and very unique for the area and has a Canada vibe- 'Features rare sphagnum bogs, heath barrens, and stunted red spruce trees typical of Canada rather than the mid-Atlantic.' Rough ride up from Canaan Valley but lots of trails and a great view east from Bear rocks, at about 4000 ft. Also check out Seneca Rocks. Not a long hike up but steep so a decent workout and a great view.

Baz is such a hard luck pitcher. Their second best starter but gets horrible run support and shoddy defense behind him. The Orioles are what they are. Mediocre at best.

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea? And yes, Chuck- -PNA

That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.

Still seeing the colder than avg surface temps in the northern plains like the previous run. Looking at each month Feb is coldest. The EPO ridge is more amped in JFM and with the advertised TPV position there is a mechanism for cold air delivery from the Polar region, similar to last months edition. The latest CFS looks warmish for Dec and Jan but then quite cold for Feb and March, due to a strong west based -NAO and a weaker/better positioned Aleutian low. All just speculation at this point, but I would expect an overall mild winter with the possibility of timing some cold with a disturbance in the southern stream a time or 2.

I have been incrementally replacing bad deck boards for the last few years. I finally got tired of it(with all the other shit I have to do lol) and contracted a local 'handyman' 2 man company to finish replacing the boards. I should have thought of you! Anyway after the boards age a bit(pressure treated pine) I would like to put a transparent tinted stain on. What do you recommend? I will gladly save that job for you if you want to do it. The 'older' boards have grayed a bit and will need a wash. I won't be home on Sunday btw.

What transparent finish(no hiding of the grain and with a tint that matches the house)can I put on my deck that will look good for more than one season? I have tried several and it is never worth the effort esp being in the woods. Nature always wins. One of the cheaper ones I have tried that lasted as long as Cabot and others that cost twice as much is Flood brand. Everything holds up much longer on the railings but on the deck itself its a year or 2 at most before it goes to crap.

Well, given the SPC issues the watch, that means that specific parameters are expected to be in place for severe storms to develop that could produce a tornado. Reading the NWS AFDs they almost always mention SPC and repeat what they have discussed about the risk(s). So once a storm has formed in a watch area and shows signs(radar indicated) that it could produce a tornado, should they just ignore it because we are in the east and some imaginary quota has been reached? lol this is so dumb.

This thread is pretty fucked up lol. Nothing about an issued watch or warning is complicated.

No idea. Intuitively this doesn't sound right to me. A watch is put into effect when conditions are favorable for tornadic activity to occur. If nothing happens then so what. It was a watch- warning the public of the possibility.

An EF0 and an EF1 Posted the survey results in the Severe weather thread

000 NOUS41 KPHI 301140 CCA PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-300915- Public Information Statement...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 740 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 07/28/26 Tornado Event... .Overview... Severe storms moved into the region during the afternoon of July 28. One of the storms that progressed through Talbot County Maryland produced two distinct tornadoes in Trappe, Maryland. Multiple witnesses reported the tornado that affected the Backtown Road fully dissipated before the storm crossed over Highway 50. The storm then produced another tornado on the east side of Highway 50 near Tarbutton Mill Road. The NWS would like to thank Talbot County Emergency Management and area residents for their assistance in this survey. .Backtown Road Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 90-100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.15 miles Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 28, 2026 Start Time: 6:12 PM EDT Start Location: 1 Mile N Trappe / Talbot County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 38.6719 / -76.0602 End Date: July 28, 2026 End Time: 6:13 PM EDT End Location: 1.1 Miles N Trappe / Talbot County / MD End Lat/Lon: 38.6734 / -76.0592 Survey Summary: Tree damage was noted behind an industrial park on Backtown Road. The highest estimated wind speeds were from roof damage to one of the large metal buildings in the industrial park. The metal roof covering was blown off and some of the roof trusses were damaged. Next to the industrial park large branches were broken on trees in the yard of a residence. The last damage noted was a distinct convergent damage path through part of a corn field on the north side of Backtown Road. Beginning and end points of this path are estimated due to lack of access. .Tarbutton Mill Road Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 70-80 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.34 miles Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 28 2026 Start Time: 6:18 PM EDT Start Location: 1.4 NNE Trappe / Talbot County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 38.6786 / -76.0519 End Date: July 28 2026 End Time: 6:19 PM EDT End Location: 1.6 NE Trappe / Talbot County / MD End Lat/Lon: 38.6792 / -76.0456 Survey Summary: The first damage at this location noted was a large branch broken from a tree. The tornado continued roughly eastward with convergent damage noted in a corn field. At the eastern extent of the damage, two farm outbuildings sustained damage to their roofs. For one building the roofing was completely uplifted, including support beams. For the other building, part of the metal roofing was blown off. &&

But the potential was there based on radar, so the warning is going out at that point, as it should.