CAPE

Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general.

Delaware Beaches- 1257 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of up to 12 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Delaware Beaches. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Warning, until 2 AM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...At this level, widespread roadway flooding occurs in coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal waterways. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to vulnerable structures may begin to occur. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

988 mb off the MA coast as it retrogrades SW. Has an inch of rain here. Kinda cool if it happens

That should be fun. I've never had their Oktoberfest- not sure I knew it existed lol. Probably only available in the Brewpub. I'll be heading in the other direction after work tomorrow. Have a great time down there. Hopefully you see some 10 ft+ waves breaking.

The Europeans are the only globals doing this. Euro and Ukie. Could be right? GFS and CMC barely scrape the immediate coast with some light rain. Mt holly has a 20% chance of showers here. Pretty low confidence for anything significant.

This seems hyperbolic. Likely based off of op runs. The latest GEFS and EPS runs have high temps ranging from upper 60s to low 70s(even mid 70s) for the first week to 10 days of October. Nice, but not chilly for early Oct. Looks about the same as what we have now through the next several days.

Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run.

Yeah not a fan. Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though.

2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy.

Finally some steady rain overnight. Still raining. 0.82" total so far-since Sunday

0.52" At least I don't need to water the grass/clover seed I put down on Sunday for at least a day lol.

La Nina ftw. At least over here, and esp right at the coast.

That's similar to using a single GFS op run and extending it out a month or more. We know how bad it sucks at 10 days lol.

Google AI- In seasonal climate modeling, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal control run—a single, unperturbed deterministic simulation extended out to nine months—is highly prone to systematic model biases, underdispersion, and severe run-to-run volatility. While the control run provides a baseline, its raw output is widely considered unreliable for direct long-range forecasting without extensive statistical bias correction and ensemble averaging. WW doesnt understand control runs. But even the CFS monthly(M) that goes out 3 months is off on WB.