CAPE

Yeah probably some good chasing opportunities.

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

Need the cold to get the snow.

Probably should just use the winter thread for now. I think medium-long range discussion threads are usually started right at the beginning of the month.

Anything pertaining to December really should be in the winter thread, as that is the official beginning of Met winter, and this thread is specifically for November. Maybe time to start a thread for December?

^12z GEFS looks a bit colder for around the 7th. Realistically expectations should be low for snow at that juncture, outside of first flakes in the air kind of thing. Turning colder, yes.

There would definitely be a lot of chaotic NS activity with that look, but should a wave take the southern route we could be in a good spot. Verbatim temps are marginal for us. Maybe a few days later would be better. Overall that same look a month later would be more favorable for the MA.

0.3" here

HH GFS. Scandi ridge building into GL, +PNA, and an avocado trough digging south. Just a random op run ofc, but continuing to see the same idea across guidance as we head into the first week of Met winter.

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow.

Latest Euro Weeklies for the period just beyond D15 on based on the 0z ens run. The progression of anomalous h5 heights into the NAO domain is more impressive than the previous run.

You sure about that?

Ok but if current ens guidance has the right idea, the combo of a +PNA/-EPO and a southward stretched TPV will begin to provide a mechanism for cold air transport southeastward for the first week to 10 days in Dec.. Beyond that there are hints of Scand ridging expanding into the NAO space- if that does happen and we end up with a -NAO, the cold will be in place underneath.

A Scandi block retrograding into the NAO space is what happened in early winter 2009. We know how that turned out. Just sayin. Ofc that was a Nino so results may vary lol.

I like this h5 look for early Dec. Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain plus a +PNA/-EPO.