CAPE

Check the radar now

Looks the like ocean/bay breeze boundary is losing its oomph. Those storms will probably weaken and dissipate as they did over here. Need another trigger.

Interpret it literally- there is an 80% chance you will get some rain- and a 20% chance you won't. Should you get some rain, amounts between a quarter and a half inch are possible.

Looks like all the action east of the bay and now just to the west is being triggered by a westward moving boundary from the Ocean/ DE bay.

Flood Watch. Over here just to my SW there is a Flash Flood Warning, but no flood watch is in effect. See the difference? Anyway, see how things evolve this evening. It will not be widespread- almost never is in these setups- but decent chance places within the watch area will need a flash flood warning.

Breeze off the DE bay doing some work over here triggering heavy rain in the area, but not in my yard at this point lol.

Sitting at 0.95" here. With the extreme drought and given the near ideal setup for heavy rain, anything less than another half to one inch would be disappointing.

Looks like @SnowtoRain might get crushed again

GEFS and GEPS keep the ridge out west and have average to even slightly below avg temps. EPS expands/shifts it towards the central US, but temps in the east look pretty typical for mid July.

0.83" so far

Nothing heavy but yeah some persistent showers. Much heavier to the south.

Booming thunder and legit heavy rain just woke me up. Finally something decent.

Already north although there is another appendage developing just to the SW. See what that does.

0.21" Need 10 times that over the next couple days to put a dent is this drought.

Some nice cracks of thunder and a decent downpour. Won't last long but at least on the board.