CAPE

lol that's not saying much. I kind of thought places closer to the coast might get an inch or so, but temps were more of an issue I guess plus they didn't get in on the heavier precip either.

Sounds similar to Harbaugh

8-8 in the playoffs and this year there was no Ravens or Chiefs to deal with. Not sure if the 5 turnovers- 4 by his QB- can be blamed on him, but there have been some issues with him in the past as well.

Bills fired McDermott

It has a cold bias at range but in this case the GFS is pretty similar with temps leading in. Both in the teens.

The currently depicted h5 pattern on the majority of guidance would have to be way off in order for that to happen. Ofc if you wanna ride with the UKie and Experimental Canadian model then maybe. It would likely take a phase of the shortwave energy dropping southward from the Pac NW with the Baja vortex and ejecting it all together.

Both the EPS and GEFS eject significant energy eastward from upper low moving southward towards Baja.

The 0z and 6z Euro Ens essentially look the same wrt precip/snowfall at 6z on Sunday, outside of run to run noise. There is no 'trend'. I am going to trust the Euro more overall for this potential event given how crappy the GFS has performed recently. I will lump the AI models in with the GFS/GEFS based on their performance with our recent (mostly Non) event.

What makes you think tomorrow would be definitive? Trust me, we won't know yet.

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" Total: 3.8"

Sun about to come up. 16 degrees. Not quite a half inch.

Low of 15 Colder than expected

Snow coming down moderately now. Temp down to 30. Doubt I get to a half inch looking at radar.

The GEFS is known for being under dispersive more so than other ensemble systems, but I think there have been improvements. To a degree all ensembles are going to tend to follow the op for a given run.. and we have many more runs to go for this potential event.

Steady light snow continues. A coating on all surfaces. temp 31.5