CAPE

0.36" today. Most rain in one "event" since probably March. Chilly out there. Feels like a late October day. 52 I can see the clearing line to the west, so might get a bit of sun to end the day.

.05"

As expected, nothing here.

Looks like @frdis about to get hit pretty good

I see some stuff heading this way on radar but ofc its weakening and is hit or miss. 10% chance I get more than a few hundredths.

Lucky you. Just spent an hour watering lol.

The pattern has been largely de-amplified with much of the h5 energy on the weak side-strung out and mostly to the north of us. PWATs have sucked with a predominant westerly component to the flow- all downslope with little to no flow/moisture ingress from the south. Comfortable temps with low DPs, but not conducive to getting any appreciable rainfall in our area this time of year. If we want rain we need a big ass HP off the coast to pump the warm/moist air northward with some cold fronts moving through.. we need warm and humid.

Severe drought for pretty much all of MD except for the western highlands.

You mean its always the same?

A tenth here last night. Like a broken record. Looks like another tenth possible this weekend lol. Getting ridiculous.

Up there the ENSO state doesn't matter so much. It snows regardless. Down at our latitude in the low elevation areas we need around a hundred elements to come together at precisely the right time for it to snow. And some cows have to fart or something.

Seems tonight was always going to be the 'main show', such that it is. Maybe a quarter inch instead of a few hundredths.

One is often better than many.

After mine burns to hell this summer I will reseed in November and by early January it should be looking pretty lush.

If we get a period of HL blocking, in a strong Nino a big winter storm is still possible-even the lowlands. So ofc the western highlands could get 'crushed'. They typically get impressive snow regardless of the overall pattern, unless cold air ingress from Canada is completely shut off.