CAPE

In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.

Never tried that one. I need to.

Down to 28 here. Fire going.

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

Nice to see the advertised Scandi ridge building into the NAO space continues to be persistent. A key feature if its real.

I'll take it

h5 looks radical.

Euro has a less defined/consolidated shortwave than the GFS/Canadian, so its weaker/a bit offshore with the low track as it approaches our latitude. Given the synoptics(HP retreating) that could work for a modest accumulation for central MD. Who knows if it has the right idea.

These seem to be the 2 potential windows to watch via recent guidance- I still like the 10-11th, but the 6th is starting to look intriguing, with some potential for significant southern energy to eject northeastward from the SW, and a nice NA look. A lot of NS energy associated with the TPV lobe though as advertised, and we know how that goes with timing(phasing vs crushing).

Yeah that's not happening, esp from the Fall line east. If I am up early enough maybe I will see a few mangled flakes before it turns to rain.

Same here

Yeah well that's what I said lol, and specifically that this time of year that setup is going to be rain for the coastal plain probably every time. Inland where you are, different story. I would expect precip to at least start as snow out there unless HH GFS scenario verifies. Probably snow/mix quickly to rain in your yard in that case.

A fundamental problem that has been pretty persistent on all model simulations is HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow chances for lower elevations/coastal plain at our latitude esp in early Dec. Places well inland and further north should see some frozen initially depending on the amplitude of the shortwave trough and exact track of the surface low.

12z Euro Ens has a favorable h5 look with hints of some energy taking the southern route. Prior to that it looks NS dominant but for this window maybe we can get a wave ejecting from the SW to slide underneath.

lol he took blame for specifically THAT? Makes zero sense. How about taking the blame for his team constantly looking unprepared/flat against lesser opponents.