CAPE

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

There are subtle differences at H5 the last several runs wrt the shortwave energy moving in from the west and the vorticity to the north- which impacts the exact location of the cold HP to the north. Yeah, we cant know yet.

You sure?

Another randomer lol Not sure what this has to do with climate change. And it isn't PSU's "theory". GTFOH

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

Well written snippet from the Mt Holly AFD describing the key features that models likely have not resolved yet- A much colder air mass is forecast to be in place early next week as arctic high pressure from Canada builds nearby. There will be one or more ripples of energy in the northern stream that will initiate some precipitation. The timing and strength of these features within a trough aloft will determine the details. Some guidance is weaker with the trough and associated energy and therefore less precipitation, while focusing on a secondary short wave that delivers more of the precipitation on Tuesday compared to Monday. There still remains the potential for a period of wintry precipitation Monday and/or Tuesday, however uncertainty remains as the model guidance continues to differ on the handling of the upper- level features. The pattern does look conducive though for an overrunning snow or wintry mix setup with arctic high pressure to the north and energy arriving from the west. It is a matter of how much the moisture attacks the cold air across our region, with also how far south the arctic high pushes.

..........wrong thread................

A useless turd who should be banned from our subforum. We get enough annoyance from some of the regulars without that stupid shit lol

Initial wave is weak sauce with the cold high in place(we get a coating verbatim), then stronger shortwave energy follows close behind as the HP is moving off the coast. We get some light mixed crap on the southern edge while it snows in NE. Some tweaks in timing aloft could yield a better outcome. We just cant know..

There is a storm, just not for us on this run. Congrats Bob Chill

Yeah I'm out. Gotta be up in 5 hours.

I there even one? Just another useless troll.

Euro has it- 12z looked pretty damn good. 18z weaker and a bit too far south.

0z GEFS a bit drier but fine.

Its a thread the needle deal for sure, but as advertised the timing of that digging NS vorticity is such that there is surface HP in a favorable position, and just enough energy sliding underneath for potentially a moderate storm. Not buying the idea of 10", but 3-6 seems achievable.