CAPE

And the RRFS that WW is constantly posting is the next generation? That fucking thing is terrible too.

Impressive how often there has been heavy rain wording in the AFDs with inch+ amounts in the forecast that literally yield nothing. All summer long. They must be just using AI or guessing because the globals are awful with resolving convection(not their forte) and all the mesos suck and are always all over the place. Today is a classic example. Need better hi-res models I guess. When they all depict different outcomes run to run something isn't working right. Too many forecast busts tell the story.

Yet another turd here lol S MD and down towards Richmond looking pretty good.

Bold prediction: The Os never get above .500 and miss out on the final WC spot by one game

Still a quarter to half inch in the forecast for tonight. Only meso model that has anything close to that is the latest run of the HRRR, which will be completely different in an hour. Can't wait for the atmospheric response to the Nino to fully kick in. Actually looking foreword to a dreary Fall with lots of rain lol.

Slightly wet ground. Is this it? Yesterday's forecast was for a half inch today and up to an inch tonight. LOL This has been a recurring trend with the forecasts here for months.

Typically Fall. Probably not until October.

The meso guidance looks awful for today/tonight. It's going dry again after finally getting an above normal month in July. Still in a severe drought.

I'm on the schedule to get the deck boards replaced in early October it looks like at this point. See how it goes. Could put off the finish until Spring if necessary, NBD. But yeah lets schedule an estimate sometime before you go off on your winter snow chase. Jealous!

No work in winter? I figured you could put a finish on my deck in Dec when its in the 70s here.

You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?

Yeah coastal NE could be a cool chase. Esp Maine, where it's almost always cold enough for a bombing coastal low as it moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.

Probably not, but not like it's feet of snow off or something. This is from NWS Buffalo.. clearly not a banner year for snowfall in that area. https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPSNOW_2015-2016.pdf

A juiced up inland runner with just enough cold in place could produce a big snowstorm there. Otherwise its mostly LES. Still a pretty good place to be in the eastern US even if snowfall is below normal there. All relative.

Same here. Hard to avoid the cesspool.