CAPE

This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region.

HRRR look good. Primative grunt.

33 heading to 10 Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.

No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.

Your area did pretty well didn't it?

Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.

What, this?

I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.

6-12 is the forecast for here. I will expect closer to 6, but if precip comes in hot and heavy as some runs have shown, upside might be better.

Looks pretty much the same to me, but since the highest temp here is 28 vs 29 on the previous run, its souther!

HH GFS is the same outside of a bit of noise between runs. Actually slightly colder here as the coastal low makes its closest pass.

Its gonna snow. Its going to be the most we have seen this winter. Yes it will sleet and be icy too, and for some rain a bit, but everyone will see several inches. Quit moaning if you expected a foot and it isnt realistic anymore. Enjoy what you get- it isnt going anywhere for a week- and we have the potential big dog coastal storm to track for next weekend. The tracking never ends when we have a favorable pattern. Rather have a shit the blinds pattern with nothing?

We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?

If you want to claim a window for a storm, you cant just post a random op run and say ooh look a storm! lol ( not that Ralph did that, idk) You do this-

I liked it first. Its another Cape storm. The last one was a bit underwhelming, but a prelude to the one that's on our doorstep.