CAPE

Mount Holly going with a general 1-3", and defaulting to the NBM(surprise!) due to the current disparity among the guidance. Also mention the potential for a stripe of 3-5" somewhere in the area if some of the more juiced up runs verify.

Or you on most guidance. The latest blend should relax some of those on the fringe on various model simulations. This appears to be a relatively small scale event, but still enough variation among the models, so we just cant know yet. Read enough AFDs and one will find the forecast offices prefer to go with the NBM at this range in these situations.

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Pretty similar through hr 65

Nein

The Iconic(not) About the same

Love the tiny 4" jackpot for Annapolis

That was associated with a strong mid level low iirc, but yes the mechanism for strong lift was there over a relatively localized area. This wont be near the magnitude and even smaller in scale it appears.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

Gotta keep an eye on the exact location and timing of phasing that occurs with the energy associated with the vorticity lobe. 12z CMC has it further west/interacts sooner than the 0z run. Pretty big change there, thus more amped/ warmer/norther.

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Just like clockwork. Perpetual snow for 3+ months. Love how these people just take it in stride. They just drive in it and scrape the roads after each event. No chemicals put on the roads to ruin their vehicles.

Someone should start one because this potential is moving into the short range..

Great 30 for 30 on Stuart Scott. Trailblazer. Teared up a bit at the end.