CAPE

The problem is h5 looks quite a bit different on current ens guidance for that period compared to a 3-4 days ago. The developing NE Pac Nina ridge is stronger and we end up with a largely mild Pacific air mass for the mid month period. Not much cold around as currently advertised. Still subject to change ofc given we are 10 days out. As usual, we just cant know yet.

Euro bullseye! lol

How about snow on glacier covered snow. A coating of snow tomorrow night is pretty likely. Might be paltry but it counts.

The Blend hasn't really changed much. Less than an inch continues to be the smart forecast. Maybe less than a half inch lol.

With historic cold for 10+ days, its a damn shame we cant get a warning criteria pure snow event. Eastern NC can though! Thems the breaks.

With mid to upper 30s tomorrow we need a refresher before the next, maybe final, blast of cold for awhile. An inch would be incredible(sadly lol).

I'm rolling with the ARW. Gimmie another bourbon. Might go Panasonic. Does it have an 18z run?

Its a weak ass pos jackpot.

Latest Natty Blend looks like a general half inch across the region east of the western highlands. The forecast of less than an inch seems reasonable.

All 3 Ensembles depict a chance for a winter storm mid month. That has looked like the most favorable window for awhile now. The difference compared to now is enough of a pattern change to inhibit significantly below avg cold to make it into our area, so as it looks currently, marginal cold would have to do it along with a favorable storm track and dynamics. That's all stuff that cant be resolved this far out.

Canadian looked similar, but it did have a 1.2" bullseye for SBY

Lets take one weak ass event at a time, okay?

JenkinsJinxie?

It's a widespread dusting to a half inch. Read the thread title- A weak ass mutha fucking POS. Don't come in here expecting more than an inch, because the shitty GFS depicts it lol.

Probably should be a thread for the @WxUSAF weak ass frontal snow thing. Its something to track, just about in the short range, and for those who freak out over a jinx, the 'risk' is probably a coating to an inch.