CAPE

It will completely disappear, come back, morph into something else, etc before we know anything useful about any outcome. The takeaway is we have a better than avg chance of a winter storm or 2 with the advertised upcoming pattern. That's all.

Its an op run 10 days out ffs. So many here never learn anything after years of hanging out in these threads. All emotion and zero logical thinking. Man I am so glad I'm not wired that way.

Remember he hated the winter of 2009-10. It was a disappointment lol.

How much snow have you had so far this winter?

Not sure the NW precip expansion is quite done yet. Pretty good chance an inch+ makes it to I-95 or a bit NW.

@Ellinwood map looking pretty good.

Total Kuchera, c'mon man! Down this way we don't get anything from the Saturday deal.

Hell of a cutoff but I will take it. The NW trend is undeniable across guidance. Its not done yet.. Cape storm lives!

Op runs flip flop around- its just the nature of deterministic guidance 4+ days out. Check out the 18z ens mean. Low 40s with SW flow ahead of a major cold front is exactly what is expected in mid winter. The "good" period(we hope) begins just beyond this.

Looks alike a healthy cold front approaching at the end with some snow associated with a wave along it. Sure its a bit warmish out in front as it always is in these cases, but nothing 'good' was expected until just beyond this time.

Still good!

The GFS really accentuates the downsloping 'dryness' for places east of the western highlands. That seems way overdone.

Fun ass run for a Friday HH. It will all change ofc but a clearly strong signal is there for the last week of the month.

fuck gotta do kuchera