CAPE

Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.

Same. Just keeping an eye on it but don't really have anything to add other than what I already have.

This is from Jan 6-7th last year. Had snow otg for weeks, then a bit more snow and another big snow storm in Feb. Maybe a little later this year, but lets hope for similar outcomes.

Now hire him. Perfect coach for Lamar. Then get McDaniel as OC. That would be awesome. As for the D coordinator, my default would be Chuck Pagano, who is already on the payroll as a consultant, and has been the DC here previously before moving on and ultimately becoming a HC.

He is odd for sure, but kinda funny and an offensive guru. Love to have him as an OC if we end up hiring a defensive minded HC like Flores. He would get the most out of Lamar, unlike Monken who wanted to abandon the run and make Lamar run around behind a crap OL and buy time to throw downfield.

There are multiple players. It's always complicated with NS dominance, which prevails in a Nina. The energy riding overtop the western ridge is a separate issue from the TPV lobe. We need more spacing between that western energy and the lead digging shortwave AND we need the TPV to be in a position where it doesnt crush the digging shortwave, yet provides enough confluence to the north to keep a developing surface low tracking to our south...but not too far south. You get the picture.. its never easy unless we have a Modoki Nino with NA blocking. Then its just a come to papa waiting game with shortwaves in the southern stream.

Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs.

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

They are interviewing everybody lol He wouldn't be awful. I prefer Klint Kubiak- young OC, comes from the Shanahan tree. Actually made Sam Darnold look good lol. His dad was a very successful OC for one season for the Ravens before moving on to coach the Broncos. I think Lamar would approve. He hated Monken.

Just for you-

That energy digging southward over the western ridge is creating mini ridge out in front and that's problematic. Need that to be weaker or more spacing. Good thing is at this range that probably wont be the actual outcome. As is, it isnt that far from something good.

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually) Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.

Like I said, you don't understand. Google/AI might be helpful.

Hey its an op run and only 13 days out. It must be right. Ji should be pissed.

And we aren't in NY state at elevation downwind of Lake Ontario. Hell of a comparison lol