CAPE

You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected.

The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.

It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out.

Too bad the Broncos have no QB.

This game in Denver is wild. Conditions deteriorated rapidly. Just a cold day in the first quartet to a snowstorm and damn near whiteout in the 4th.

A legit glacier here with the freezing rain on top of the sleet on top of the snow. This wont be going anywhere for awhile.

3Km NAM has a high of 31 before it starts to fall. Its done the best with thermals today.

Temp seems to be holding pretty steady at 29 now.

I was just outside cleaning/chiseling off the jeep and put a tarp over the front half. I need to be out early tomorrow morning. I really do hate freezing rain. We will have a glacier that will be around for a month lol.

It was mostly the sleet that caused that.

Mount Holly lowered the high temp here to 31, which aligns with guidance, which has the high between 30-32. Been rising fairly quick though the last hour or so. 28 now.

Well since the sleet is done, unless it flips back at the end, looks like my total will be 6.8" (combo of snow and sleet)

Ofc as soon as it flips to freezing rain it gets heavier.

If I lose power this is my freezer lol

Same here. Looks like we stay below freezing per guidance and updated forecast from Mount Holly. They are thinking up to a quarter inch of ice...Nam suggests closer to a half, but not sure I by that.