CAPE

18z EPS is slightly worse than 12z. Minor. No progress though.

Still has a ways to go

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

The vorticity dropping southward over the ridge phases in nicely behind the main shortwave on the 12z run.. not as much on 18z. Subtle differences.

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.

18z GFS has begun rolling. Most important run of our weenie lives.

Kinda like looking at a car wreck on a long drive? Fucking boring and haven't seen anything interesting for miles.

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

GFS and CMC have a little something too.

12z EPS similar to the op- a little worse than the 6z run. Nothing earth shattering.

Very subtle differences in the wave interactions(vorticity phasing) but that's all it takes in a situation like this. Bottom line is the shortwave turns neutral/negative later(too late) than the GFS. More runs to come and we will see somewhat different interactions and thus outcomes. Fun stuff eh? eta- you can see it clearly in the panels you posted. Also happens with another piece energy a bit earlier. I have said this ad nauseum- all our hopes and dreams depend on random wave interactions and timing.

12z GEFS further NW than 6z with precip.