CAPE

Yes. It may waiver back and forth a bit from run to run, but I would be surprised if the outcome ends up much different. Maybe I'm wrong putting more "faith" in the Euro than other guidance, but AI I don't fully trust yet, CMC is almost always crap, and the GFS...well, lol. See what the Mesos look like as we get into their range.

I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does. The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol

What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad".

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.

About done here

Right where I want it..

Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event

Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.

Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.