CAPE

Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.

I'm good with 12z GEFS precip and snowfall picture.

I find the h5 picture to be fascinating. Love me some vorticity.

I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.

What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.

I told you there was big potential for that window. Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.

We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above.

Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.

That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.

Latest blend- snow and ice

We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.

Low of 10