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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
More detailed discussion in the other thread including the 0z Canadian run. -
Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps
CAPE replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal. -
Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps
CAPE replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
The other problem with this run is, where's the 50-50 low? If it were in place, as that low strengthens and moves off the coast a bit it would probably snow. -
Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps
CAPE replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
@Ji Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involved too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast. Next panel- -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think there is a very narrow path to victory for this, and the Canadian is probably close to it. The track and strength of the low is critical with the lack of antecedent cold. It probably will take heavy precip and dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow for places east of the mountains. Unlikely to see frozen regardless on the coastal plain. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Magnesium supplements usually do the trick. I was taking it for muscle recovery and sleep. But then I found out it had a side effect lol, at least for me. Dose dependent. I backed it off and now ok. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
or a nap? maybe a RAP? -
Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps
CAPE replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
No. Some prefer the AI models(also accessible). They aren't physics based in the traditional sense. So I am referring to the 'traditional' model guidance. Euro imo is superior to GFS, CMC, etc. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
The legit cold is gone for now. This storm is a thread the needle deal. We might get some decent cold back for the last week of the month. Latest trends on the ensembles aren't the best, but still time. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
There's your freebie. Ok back to my thread before the whinging begins. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Still pretty close to something decent for somewhere in our region. Stay vigilant. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah its a weakling until it gets further offshore. No phase at h5- the NS wave sharpens but too late and doesn't go negative in time. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Don't forget the pure heavy snow event for eastern NC while we smoked cirrus. We missed that one and have had nothing since. Piss and moan over- at least i am in the appropriate thread for it lol. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Even that starts upstairs.
