CAPE

Yeah the WB singe run CFS is completely useless. I used to mention it whenever someone posted it but it keeps happening so I give up lol.

At best its been that here for most of the Summer. July was good, then dry for August until the past week. Probably good to go now heading into a Nino Fall.

0.92" Almost 3.5" Since Monday

A deluge just woke me up.

Maybe we are due? And the CFS doesnt have a strong -NAO for the entire winter- it develops later in winter. We have had well timed-NAO periods in recent winters that have contributed to snowstorms in our area. We don't need a wall to wall NA block. See Jan 2016.

The CFS has been remarkably consistent in suggesting Feb and March will hold the best chance for cold and a big winter storm. Dec h5 pattern looks very mild with PAC puke look, and Jan might trend colder towards the end. Not surprising that the latter part of winter has the best potential to deliver when the Nino may relax a bit/ max SST anomalies shift more westward. All fwiw ofc. Pretty nice looks here. Should be just cold enough a time or two as the key features shift/ align in a favorable configuration.

Update- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 804 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Storm Surveys Continue in portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southeast Pennsylvania... The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is currently conducting a review of storm surveys for the areas near Dover and Hartly in Kent County, DE, Barclay and Marydel in Queen Anne's County, MD, and Downingtown in Chester County, PA. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Thursday, August 20th, 2026. *Update #1: Two additional tornadoes have been confirmed, one in Queen Anne's County in northeast Maryland and one in Chester County in southeast Pennsylvania. The total number of confirmed tornadoes from Thursday, August 20th within our County Warning Area is now three. An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed near Barclay in Queen Anne's County, Maryland. An EF-0 tornado has been confirmed near Downingtown in Chester County, PA. We have previously confirmed that at least EF-1 tornado damage, with estimated peak winds up to 105 mph, occurred with the tornado that impacted the Dover, DE area. Surveys and analyses are still ongoing. Stay tuned for additional updates as more information become available within the next few days.

Getting another line of showers after some peaks of sun. This should be it until the front moves through later.

2.45" for the week. Not bad.

That's training too. Probably a couple inches in some places if it holds together.

Everyone here maybe. Pro forecasters know the models are an imperfect tool- thus they are used as forecast guidance. If less data is available in certain regions at initialization, it will have some impact on modeled outcomes.

Bigly

Picked up 0.55" here overnight. Woke up and it was raining hard. Wasn't supposed to get much of anything until today. I guess it came early.

Sad how Alonso has been everything the Os had hoped he would be, and it has made zero difference. That speaks volumes about where this team is(or isnt).

Weird how the Os seem to be able to find ways to beat the Rays, probably the second best team in baseball.