CAPE

More detailed discussion in the other thread including the 0z Canadian run.

The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal.

The other problem with this run is, where's the 50-50 low? If it were in place, as that low strengthens and moves off the coast a bit it would probably snow.

@Ji Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involved too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast. Next panel-

This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region

I think there is a very narrow path to victory for this, and the Canadian is probably close to it. The track and strength of the low is critical with the lack of antecedent cold. It probably will take heavy precip and dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow for places east of the mountains. Unlikely to see frozen regardless on the coastal plain.

Magnesium supplements usually do the trick. I was taking it for muscle recovery and sleep. But then I found out it had a side effect lol, at least for me. Dose dependent. I backed it off and now ok.

or a nap? maybe a RAP?

No. Some prefer the AI models(also accessible). They aren't physics based in the traditional sense. So I am referring to the 'traditional' model guidance. Euro imo is superior to GFS, CMC, etc.

The legit cold is gone for now. This storm is a thread the needle deal. We might get some decent cold back for the last week of the month. Latest trends on the ensembles aren't the best, but still time.

There's your freebie. Ok back to my thread before the whinging begins.

Still pretty close to something decent for somewhere in our region. Stay vigilant.

Yeah its a weakling until it gets further offshore. No phase at h5- the NS wave sharpens but too late and doesn't go negative in time.

Don't forget the pure heavy snow event for eastern NC while we smoked cirrus. We missed that one and have had nothing since. Piss and moan over- at least i am in the appropriate thread for it lol.

Even that starts upstairs.