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CAPE

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    NW of Greensboro, MD

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  1. CAPE
    The HRRR isn't the end all lol. Its "ok" sometimes, and other times(often) it completely sucks at sniffing out reality even a few hours in advance. Latest 3km NAM, RGEM, and FV3 suggest some degree of convection towards dawn across the area. Where exactly is yet to be determined. To be clear, any overnight storms have a low probability to be severe, but I think many here would be content with some additional rain with some rumbles of thunder- a nice way to wake up and get the coffee going.
  2. CAPE
    You got into the best part with that one. Garden variety here and ended up with 0.55". Was lucky to get that, but no complaints. Needed rain.
  3. CAPE
    Just breezy here and thunder all off in the distance. Getting some decent rain now though.
  4. CAPE
    Working out well so far lol. Initial cell pushed south, and the way the line formed/congealed it bowed out to the north and also to the south. I'll get the weakest part here. A half inch would be nice.
  5. CAPE
    So far nothing here yet. The notch of nothingness from Ridgely to Goldsboro has formed.
  6. CAPE
    I just want some damn heavy rain to make up for the lack thereof the other day lol. None of the rest of that.
  7. CAPE
    53 WUUS51 KPHI 162204 SVRPHI MDC011-029-035-041-162300- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0051.250516T2204Z-250516T2300Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 604 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Talbot County in eastern Maryland... Queen Anne's County in northeastern Maryland... Northern Caroline County in eastern Maryland... Kent County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 603 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Dundalk to Bodkin Point to Arnold, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public and ASOS. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Centerville, Chestertown, Denton, Centreville, Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Rock Hall, Church Hill, Millington, Sudlersville, Betterton, Goldsboro, Queen Anne, Old Town, Grasonville, Starr, Jumptown, Newtown, and Morgnec.
  8. CAPE
    Per radar you might get some hail.
  9. CAPE
    Continuous thunder in the distance to my west. That's a healthy cell. Looks like some hail in the southern part of it. Might get in on the northern edge of it as it looks now.
  10. CAPE
    Looks like I have multiple chances but the approaching cell might slide just south, and the consolidating line behind it has a gap that kinda lines up with my yard
  11. CAPE
    I think the initial watch was for the convection associated with the morning MCS, so they let that expire. Since the next one is coming in from the west/further south they placed a watch in effect for areas west of the bay first, then with further evaluation added a new watch to adjacent areas to the east.
  12. CAPE
    Another weakening MCS moving eastward from KY/southern OH may arrive towards daybreak per some guidance. Likely won't be as intense in the wake of previous storms/loss of daytime heating, but nonetheless more storms/heavy rain will be possible in some places.
  13. CAPE
    18z HRRR looks fun for this evening.
  14. CAPE
    The new watch west of the bay is in effect until 10pm. The watch over here expires at 5pm. I'm guessing it would be extended.
  15. CAPE
    Yeah after reading the meso discussion it seemed pretty likely.
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