CAPE

Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.

20% chance of snow in the forecast here. Did pretty well with that the last 2 days lol.

Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.

Yeah with an amped EPO ridge we have a mechanism to deliver the cold. Having a neutral/slightly -PNA can facilitate shortwaves ejecting eastward further south. Otherwise we need a healthy NS wave to drop south and track underneath. We will need the NAO to be favorable to keep the SE ridge flat/suppressed and most of the guidance is depicting a ridge over GL in the LR.

yep. fundamental diff eq.

And those areas go through stretches where its mild and doesn't snow. Anyone who wants cold and snow all winter probably needs to move to northern Maine.

We had a cold December and it snowed multiple times. Just had a snow squall roll through on Jan 1. Slight chance of snow this weekend. We haven't even sniffed a shut the blinds pattern. Maybe we wont see a flake of snow over the next 2 weeks, but I kind of doubt that. We are due for a milder period and that looks pretty certain. This is how winter goes in these parts. Personally I am looking forward to some days in the 50s. A little tired of the cold and wind.

Wow that was an impressive squall line. Would have been cool to see.

Well I missed seeing it happen again but woke up to a coating of snow for the second day in a row. Kinda cool.

That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him.

yes and you whine when you don't get the outcome you want.

And the equations used to describe the atmosphere are quite primitive. Amazing the models perform as well as they do given the complexity of the atmosphere.

I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome.

More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science.

Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.