CAPE

You should line this up with the member MSLP panels. Looks like around 20 indicate little to no impact from the coastal low. Combo of weak/too far offshore.

Still discombobulated but it kinda works out this run. I doubt this is the final outcome(hopefully not) Looks like interior areas get snow associated with the lead shortwave as it sharpens- Eastern areas get snow resulting from the phase and the developing offshore coastal low. Precarious.

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development. GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture.

For some reason I'm not too worried about a complete whiff to the South or east. Temps are the main problem so we need a strong low with dynamics. A weak pos wont do it. Something about this looks different to me compared to recent fails.. maybe I am imagining things. Anyone want to take a stab at it? Other than the +PNA.

Broken fucking record. @stormtracker This turd needs to be limited to the Panic Room

You didn't lose anything. You never had it, and you don't have what's on this run. These are simulations. Yes I know you live for the digital snow. Instant gratification or disappointment.

Latest Natty Blend looks solid. And posting snow maps is now somewhat useful as we are within a week and the preponderance of guidance indicates a legit threat.

Yeah they got crushed with that deform band while I got dry slotted. Got half a storm here lol.

Damn I thought you moved to the desert too. Prevailing winds off of the higher terrain to the west into the valley...downsloping sucks. Otoh coastal storms or tropical storms with an easterly component do well there.

You left Leesburg?

Temps kinda suck at the end of the run on the mean, but plenty of time to correct that error.

End of the run-

Yeah he has told us that for decades lol