CAPE

I better get my mind right. I've been told by the man at the top this thing needs to produce.

Yeah its a small tick NW, probably run-to run noise. Something needs to change with the energy dropping southward and how it interacts with the main shortwave. Need it to phase in behind and not stay separate at this point. GFS looks more like the Euro now.

Given the mess of vorticity involved, there is still some hope that this could end up being something decent. 1-3 or something.

It really comes down to h5 and the timing/interaction between the pieces of energy and whether it consolidates in time to take on a neutral/negative tilt. At this point probably a light event is still on the table, but that would probably be more for coastal areas, maybe to I-95. Current guidance(excluding GFS) only has an inch or 2 for the coastal areas of NC and SE VA...that's the jackpot lol. Its weak and mostly offshore.

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

I don't really get emotionally invested anymore. When there is something worth tracking, we track it, but expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs, even at 4-5 days out.

Never get too invested when the GFS is all alone.

Kinda saw that coming. A bit more in line with the rest of guidance for now. We got time. Watch the Euro make a big shift NW over the next few runs lol.

18z EPS is slightly worse than 12z. Minor. No progress though.

Still has a ways to go

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

The vorticity dropping southward over the ridge phases in nicely behind the main shortwave on the 12z run.. not as much on 18z. Subtle differences.

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.