CAPE

I cant help but admire the surface.. how often do we see a wall of HP across the north and west with juiced up overrunning and a low emerging off the NC coast. No mutha fucking Great Lakes low.

Yeeeaaah I dont think so lol

Bob chill!

WB

Incoming.. cold powder

I like my Sat night forecast- 80% chance of snow with a low of 13. Bring that shit.

Y'all what some good feels, check this out

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

No idea, and I don't care to know what they were talking about, or why.

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Completely agree.

Haven't had time to look at anything since this morning. Just checked the 12z Ens runs and all look great. What did I miss?

I've been busy all day. Wonder if the whinging and meltdowns over op runs have been predominant from the usual. (my guess is yes) I just checked the 12z ensembles and they all look fine. All I need to see until HH. On we go.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- Signals in the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets. The key elements embedded in these features are currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take at least a couple more days for guidance to have a good handle on this system. However, almost all available guidance depicts an area of low pressure developing near Texas Friday before tracking eastward along the Gulf coast into Saturday. Beyond Saturday there still remains forecast uncertainty regarding the details of how this system will play out for the east coast. However, at this time most forecast guidance tracks the low north and east towards the North Carolina coast and then off to the north and east from here by the Sunday into Monday time frame. This track puts the mid Atlantic region on the northern side of the system with the main question then becoming just how close to us does the low track. There will be a very strong and broad arctic high to our north and some of our prior guidance had suggested this may be strong enough to suppress the system just south of the area. But over the past 12 to 24 hours there`s been a general trend northward in guidance suggesting the precipitation shield will make it into our area. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM now show a 60-70% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 40-60% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas roughly along and south of the I-95 corridor with decreasing probabilities farther north. These probabilities are higher than with the prior forecast cycle. So while this system still is about 5 days out, the signal for a winter storm to impact at least parts of the area is higher than usual. The timing of this would be as early as very late day Saturday continuing through Sunday and potentially even lingering into Monday depending on the system`s speed.