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Wrt the coastal low, there are differences in the track. GFS/GEFS is further south, while the Euro/EPS is north and hugs the coast. Makes a big difference esp for the coastal plain. GFS would have proportionally more snow with some sleet, and minimal freezing rain.
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The CMC is warmer- gets us near 40 with a lot of rain. Pure slop at the end if that thing is right. -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 6z Euro Backed off the ice for our area, so more plain rain, which is what I expected. Has us in the mid 30s. Last run it only got to 29 at my location. -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet, some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow. -
Seeing a storm on some op runs.
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Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.
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Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places.
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I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds.
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GFS has some decent backend snow too.
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Legendary... more like urban myth?
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Yes. It may waiver back and forth a bit from run to run, but I would be surprised if the outcome ends up much different. Maybe I'm wrong putting more "faith" in the Euro than other guidance, but AI I don't fully trust yet, CMC is almost always crap, and the GFS...well, lol. See what the Mesos look like as we get into their range.
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I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does. The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol
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What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?
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Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.
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Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad".

