CAPE
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CanSIPS likes that idea.
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Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.
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We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.
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Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.
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This seems to concur.
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H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.
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Yeah most of the activity firing behind this boundary is staying east in DE.
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I'm sure they will miss my yard lol. 7.3" here for A-M-J and so far in July. Thus the extreme drought.
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Yeah I mentioned that outflow boundary in the other thread.
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Maybe that outflow boundary moving SW from the SNJ storms can trigger something.
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A quarter inch of rain would be cool. Not asking for much. That would get me to a little over an inch and a half for the month, while continuing the pathetic monthly totals since March.
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These 15 year olds lol.
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The norm here. Stopped paying attention to the WPC/local NWS hype for heavy rain. The time will come but it isnt now.
