CAPE

The primary difference I see is the NW to SE vorticity ribbon dropping southeastward in the flow from Canada is more robust and phases with the energy taking the southern route. The SLP over SC begins to develop at that point. As for why it digs more and climbs the coast then tucks as it intensifies, I think it has to do with the ball of vorticity seen here over SW MN that emanates from the tail end of that ribbon, and THEN ultimately phases in- no other model has had that.

Check the Panasonic?

At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

Thats pretty much what it looked like at that point on the previous run. Its beyond that where the action happens.

Because its hideous lol

Just looking at the 0z EPS panels- there is a definite increase in the number of members that have a significant coastal low close enough to the coast compared to 12z yesterday.

The ens mean looks more sensible- has the most snow in the climo favored areas

In a few years maybe all the physics based models will be, other than short range hi res.

Could be rain in a few runs

Gotta deal with reality- I have to drive 30 mins to work to teach a class that's starts on Monday morning- all the students will be there already. In cases like this in the past I get a room and stay there ahead of the event. Lets see what the Euro does today- its not perfect but more times than not is has the 'more correct' idea.

6-10" and call it a winter. Fuck I'll take any snow.

LOL

We need to keep reminding ourselves- these are simulations of what could happen.

lol that's a damn blizzard