CAPE

Yeah I cant think of a single snowstorm that occurred after mid Feb.

Like nearly everything that occurs in the atmosphere, what causes a block is complex and there isnt a singe cause. Google this- "what causes an atmospheric block" I think it will help you get a better understanding.

Maybe google atmospheric block- there are several types. A NAO block is a Rex- poleward ridge/ equatorward trough. It forces the flow to buckle southward and that places the baroclinic boundary further south- meaning storms develop/ take a more southward track.

A 'block' = Atmospheric block= features(ridge/trough combo) remain in place for a significant period instead of just moving along in the flow.

I answered it above. A block means a ridge/trough combo(eg rex block) that remains stationary/quasi stationary. A transient dipole does nothing to help our cause unless literally everything is timed perfectly.

To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.

Heading up to NW PA?

Still some time...maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this before we are forced into hibernation for 2 weeks.

It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.

For maybe an inch, not unrealistic.

Like the op, the GEFS has been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. 0z run compared to the most recent 18z run-

1/1: 0.1" T: 3.4"

It is stronger and sharper with the NS vorticity but digs it southward a bit too late. Still a minor improvement at the surface and a trend towards the Euro.