CAPE

The Europeans are the only globals doing this. Euro and Ukie. Could be right? GFS and CMC barely scrape the immediate coast with some light rain. Mt holly has a 20% chance of showers here. Pretty low confidence for anything significant.

This seems hyperbolic. Likely based off of op runs. The latest GEFS and EPS runs have high temps ranging from upper 60s to low 70s(even mid 70s) for the first week to 10 days of October. Nice, but not chilly for early Oct. Looks about the same as what we have now through the next several days.

Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run.

Yeah not a fan. Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though.

2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy.

Finally some steady rain overnight. Still raining. 0.82" total so far-since Sunday

0.52" At least I don't need to water the grass/clover seed I put down on Sunday for at least a day lol.

La Nina ftw. At least over here, and esp right at the coast.

That's similar to using a single GFS op run and extending it out a month or more. We know how bad it sucks at 10 days lol.

Google AI- In seasonal climate modeling, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal control run—a single, unperturbed deterministic simulation extended out to nine months—is highly prone to systematic model biases, underdispersion, and severe run-to-run volatility. While the control run provides a baseline, its raw output is widely considered unreliable for direct long-range forecasting without extensive statistical bias correction and ensemble averaging. WW doesnt understand control runs. But even the CFS monthly(M) that goes out 3 months is off on WB.

Same. h5 is all I look at with these seasonal models. That said, this is a WB issue. Sucks at h5 too. Check it against TT.

He is awful. Been obvious ever since he took credit for that insane month(Feb?) several winters ago when Boston got dumped on over and over and had like 100". None of his shit worked out that winter. Snake oil salesman.

He keeps posting them even though it has been said over and over that WB sucks ass wrt the CFS depiction, esp at the surface.

Splotchy radar all day. Most of the splotches of decent rain are smallish and seem to miss my yard lol. Spitting and drizzling towards a half inch. 0.45" total since I guess Sunday?

Wholly unimpressive over here. 0.35" I guess overnight tonight is the best shot here, but quite a few models have nothing significant. Get this crap outta here and bring the nice Fall weather.