CAPE

6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.

Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.

Go Canada

Its not 'last minute'. Look at the orientation of the ridge over S Canada north of the GLs- it folds over- essentially an anticyclonic wave break

Its only the 2nd of this winter. And the first produced a widespread half inch to 2 inches! This is the original and probably the one and only Cape storm. I identified the way out of the shit the blinds pattern and it actually worked out. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103 I did/still do like early Feb, so we shall see. RN it looks like places right along the coast might get nailed, subject to change ofc.

Beach chase run. Rehoboth..Dogfish Head. Yeah baby.

1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) Total: 10.8"

Its a Nina. East gets rocked. You get gray at best.

Yeah its a hell of a hit to me lol

I need a foot of snow to thoroughly bury this glacier lol. Walking on top of the ice sheet unless I stomp my feet to break through to the snow.

People post em and they will end up there. Plenty of folks on those platforms generate them.. And why not? Its happening here lol, and still 5+ days out. I have liked the potential for this window for awhile, but probably a little soon to go nuts over snow maps. I'm focused on h5 and what the 'trends' are looking like, mostly leaning on the ensembles. Signal for something good is getting stronger.

I slept like a baby and I'm headed out to chisel my jeep out of its encasement and try to get to work lol. This may have been posted but no time to browse 20 pages. This is pretty tasty and close enough for a mean at this range. Like I said last night there is plenty of time for guidance to correct any possible errors with the key features, and we all know nothing is ever nailed 5+ days out. More changes likely to come.

So I see some excitement has returned for Feb 1st. Y'all left it for dead.

You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected.

The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.