40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think we are stuck with the bloated H5, at this point....I don't see that tightening up and going under SNE. The monster band will come through, drop a foot, then another day of nuisance. The initial band will be weakening as it passes through, and the secondary will begin to compensate back east. -
Yea, out in PA and NYS, but without any arctic air, I doubt its 40" again.
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Yes. More often than not...that Dec 17 case was in the minority, but I think this one maybe, too.
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More often than not, nothing can be nailed down at this range, but that is not always the case. Folks were screaming the same crap when I emphatically called that subby area over my head for several days leading into the 12/17 event. Lets see what happens...if its still there tomorrow, then some may need to deal.
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Undoubtedly, on average. Yes. Agree.
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Yes....blend of guidance, and past experience with similar systems. JMHO....you do you, I'll do me. lol
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Yea, except for CTRV, I don't think this one will have big subby holes....not with that flow. But what I am saying is I don't think that is just the model depicting the CTRV too widely....I think there is also a trasnfer ongoing to the coast. JMHO.
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I don't think that is an entirely fair comp....I understand the inherent risks of the range, but I feel as though this one is more table than avg at this lead...at least the ens. Probably owed to the synoptic synergy that has been flagging this period.
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I wouldn't even say that....its a flag for a few inches under whatever the highest amounts end up being. At the end of the day, with that 850 inflow, I don't think there is a great disparity between haves and have nots....save for the CTRV...downslope should be bad.
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Yea, you are on the edge....climo dictates that you prob catch the SW edge of the redevelopment, however, I do like my area a bit better in this case.
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Its not a huge deal....just means maybe 10" in central CT, instead of 14".
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Ultimately, I agree about my area remaining snow because the OP is more amped than the steadfast EPS mean, however, I do see the relative lull in your area as a very prominent feature.
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I agree...issue is where does it bloom and how late lol I have always bought the first H5 closure jack in mid atl, with a lull either in NYC or CT, then secondary maxima ORH points ne into ME.
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It makes sense to me....just as the precip type concerns do out my way. There is going to be an area of lesser QPF between the original H5 closure back in PA, and the coastal taking over.
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Many will have enjoyed yesterday more.
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Euro has that relative lull around Kev's area, as the N stream takes over....don't mind seeing it.
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Hopefully EPS still looks good.
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I'm literally done with this season if that works out....brutal run.
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Euro looks like decent amount of rain inside 495.
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BOX tried to tell 'em....
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+3" 22" total...
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Zero care.
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I mean...you do the math:
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I could see NYC doing very well....its a tough call bc it depends on when that initial mid level orgasm begins to die off....up towards central CT may be the greater likelihood. That is a tougher call...I think the easier call is to hedge east on when N stream takes over.
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I mentioned during March 2018 that I would pay for it, and have been ever since.
