40/70 Benchmark

I completely get what he is saying because we have seen SWs attenuate as they move towards us all season long. But I think its pretty clear that this one will maintain enough strength while crashing into an arctic high for widespread several inches. I think the high is a game changer that really elevates the floor here via isentropic lift. I just don't see the mechanisms for appreciable precip production completely drying up, no pun intended. Now, I agree that some of these runs, like the 00z EURO, dropping widespread 10-12" are overdone....but widespread 6"+ where it is mostly snow is pretty likely.

That signal was not as strong as the one for Tuesday within 5 days. I know that I never expected much from it.

Yea, I was lumping BGM more in with spots like Ithaca.

I get your point. I think you're wrong...and you should get over it frankly. I don't see fast flow as being prohibitive of a moderate 4-8" or 6-10" type of "payload" from an attenuating system in the face of confluence, abutting arctic air.

Yea, that is what I figured.

Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.

I'll take the over on that. Highly doubt this ends up 2-4" in this area....maybe further south due to precip type issues.

A prevalent model bias, in addition to not being aggressive enough with mid level warming to the east of the mid level lows, is to be too heavy with QPF.

It was...couple of inches less. Expected...00z had like 10-12", which is usually too much for a SWFE....this 7-10" is more like it-

I never bother to fact check him....guy is the human incarnate of GOOGLE. Whenever I am debating someone, and he takes the other side, I just immediately defer, tip the cap to the other party and about face-walk away.

Whole run

I though they avged around what we do...mid 60's. Must be from the rotting LES.

KBGM is going to pull a 100" season.

Finally a snowfall map that resembles la nina climo.

The Maine folk are crabby after a two month pork job.

I know exactly where it is....just north of that swath of fronto.

Must be something out ahead of the main system, IDK.

I saw that...downslope?

Congrats, Caribou

Yea, I expected it to be worse, but its not...you're right.

Another trend this season, but good in this case...otherwise its 2-5", then washed away.

I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong.

Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in.

Its a bit colder than 00z, 0C 7H makes it to about Boston, rather than S NH.....I'd hedge warmer on that.