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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I agree with you, but it still technically a mod la nina....its incumbent upon the seasonal forecaster to correctly account for said changes.
  2. I'd sell the GEM, as usual. But if that did happen, yea....see you for cane season.
  3. Literally, dude....after I weenied out and the wife and kid went down, I had a Playstation orgie til like 4.
  4. First of all, no one is ever a douche for calling me on something that ends up incorrect....especially if it results in more snow lol Secondly,I never said it was impossible...just pretty rare, but if its ever going to happen, it would be with an extreme NAO block on the level of 2010. Lets just let it play out, though...
  5. Euro, NAM and GEM all in very good agreement on precip type issues out to 495....right now, anyway.
  6. This may finally by my long awaited event that I take scooter to the shed.
  7. You don't have to twist my arm to take this run....cut this by at least a third...
  8. Yea, much safer run for you guys out there...with still the possible exception of CTRV. Not only downslope from easterly fetch, but also maybe subby due to deformation just west. I could see one max with lower fronto east, then another way out in Berks or e NYS into VT w mid level fronto. Still think there is a reasonable shot it wnt be this far west, though. Watch for this amped trend to steady and potentially even reverse this wknd.
  9. Maybe if the precip was light, but that is the height of the hose and its pounding. Only thing I can think of is it just kills the ratios.
  10. I'm going to sell that model run. Its overdoing the warmth IMO....weird. The precip algorithms make sense....they should be getting hardly precip type, issues, over an inch of QPF, yet like 8" of snow...makes zero sense.
  11. Run was worse than I thought....with those precip rates, I would have though -2 to -3C 925 would have been good enough. IDK, I'll take my chances with that, I think we'd do better than that. I think it overdoing the warmth.
  12. Warmest point during the height.....precip is pounding here, so -2C @ 925 may be good enough.....
  13. Hopefully it comes in with better inflow...just a NW track would suck....we'll see.
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