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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That will be challenged IMO...will be close, unless it curls more west
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bad for wind, good for surge.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This system reminds me of a post ERC storm in terms of sat presentation...just an anecdotal ob.. .I wonder if some funky internal stuff went on due to friction of land
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wouldn't building of ridge trend it west?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your only shot is a track far enough west.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't have time for an ERC....watch.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now that is a catastrophic ensemble suite.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, too far west on that run
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    NO needs the bend back more westward in the GOM because right now eastern envelop is favored.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are they won't get the very worst of it, but I felt it prudent to really emphasize the danger because its perfectly feasible
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strong most likely? Good luck.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why the majority of the most intense US LFs are not long tracker CV storms...that, and less chance for recurve.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That, to me, is the fun of forecasting....hedging when to over/under cut guidance. No one with a true passion for weather vomits model output in any event of relevance.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are also times when the models are overzealous...again, forecaster needs to blend meteorological breadth of perspective/experience with foundational knowledge to synthesize a superior forecast...machines can not do that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    They are not the ACE makers, but they are the cinema.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Models struggle in extreme scenarios and don't always adequately account for all meteorological phenomena...its like during winter, when models will print out cirrus over the Berkshires with a 970mb tempest just inside of the benchmark. Its incumbent on the forecaster to account for mid level features. Same deal here...intensity guidance can not entirely resolve what is beginning to happen and what will transpire over the course of the next 36-48 hours. The forecaster needs to.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The key to my forecast is that I don't think this has much time to complete an ERC, but even if it does, we will just trade some wind impact for more surge. This one will rank up there.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Little without higher terrain passage.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny, Michael was one of the big five (along with Katrina, Andrew, Camille and Labor day '35) that I referenced in my forecast for cat 4-5 landfall yesteday.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Michael was one of the big five that I cited in my forecast for a reason. Sit back, and enjoy the show.
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