40/70 Benchmark

Just a hunch, but I think we get one more bonafide threat this season and it should be respectable, unlike that fraud Henri. I am a fan of the forecasting dichotomy that Henri and Ida provided, though. I am not biased.....I make an objective call as I see fit. I was very bearish on Henri and insanely, aggressively bullish on Ida from the start.

Impactful night, but flooding and severe really aren't my thing. Hopefully the tropics get cooking again.

Not paying close attention, but hopefully worst stays south of me, as it seems it should. I don't need a Flash Flood jack. Leave that @Damage In Tolland

I'll take that.

You are looking at the First Call map from Thursday....I was on the wrong side of Terrabonne Bay...pretty close for 72 hrs lead...Final from early Sunday AM got the exact town correct and was 90 minutes too slow.

Not sure what you are looking at, but I predicted Port Fourchon.

A+ Forecast dating back to Thursday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/major-hurricane-idea-verification.html

That is Andrew territory...hallowed ground.

935mb it is

Prob like 933-934mb

I was speculating...it wasn't a proclamation. I wouldn't have guessed that, but it seemed the pressure had leveled off.

Eastern eyewall goes right over NO and its only weakened 10mb from peak

143mph at surface

Flight level 130kts

947

May have peaked..

I was about to say, looks bordering cat 5 to me based on SAT presentation..

I may pull an all nighter..time to watch Camille footage to pregame

Final Call unchanged from First Call on Thursday PM. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/extreme-hurricane-ida-rapidly.html

Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI. Yes.

Not sure why this got a weenie, but its absolutely true...intensifying systems more proficiently mix higher gusts down to the surface.