40/70 Benchmark

Not really...

Only diff. is the lack of a high bleeding cold down to produce icing...snow amounts look similar.

First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/02/pete-repeat-pattern-continues-thursday.html

He must have been viewing the EPS..

I think 15" rest of Feb and 15" in March is a reasonable hope..

I def. don't see a 2018 like turn around...I was confident of the big finish heading into that seaaon and it was apparent by this time that year that the script would indeed flip. However, I still think this one has more to offer than this.

Everyone that is discussing the snow is mindful of the limitations, so the issue is your DB undertone.

I don't see any sugar coating....

I think everyone understands that the pattern sucks for sne...I think its best for the welfare of the forum if we just operate under the assumption that that is implicit, and refrain from pounding anyone over the head that dares to discuss snow during winter in a weather forum.

He has a point about this crap belonging in the panic room, though...

Yea, probably 1-3" outside I495...blah.

Auto pilot. Thanks.

I haven't looked at that...mixed north of the pike?

On the face of it, if there was ever a candidate to end very early, its this season....but given the manner in which it began, seasons of this ilk have demonstrated a proclicity to deliver parting gifts as a homeage to the early returns back in December..this belies the ostensibly deplorable H5 evolution, but it is what it is.

I'm going on a hunch...I agree that the pattern looks horrible. When I make my seasonal calls, I incorporate more than just the anticipated H5 evolutions. I also take out the Kocin book and search for any of the analog years, which contributes to my slected date ranges for larger events. There is a good deal of noise involved in the sensible appeal over the course of a given seasonal evolution, so you have to attempt to account for that by referencing the past...its like a cook book with a myriad of ingredients.

Yea, that takes some bad luck...don't care how warm its been.

Heh... prescient reference....?

Might be worth a bit of research into seasonal progression following SNE MECS in December..wonder how many seasons essentially ended, thereafter-

"I'm here to bring you back to our forum" lol

You don't necessarily need a wholesale pattern change to see a significant event...especially as we get into March and the wavelengths shorten. The atmopshere tends to get flipped on its head, so to speak...I'll be suprised if we don't see at least one more good system.

I know there is likely sarcasm at play here, but I'll go down with the ship on that...don't think we're done.

If that's wxbell, then I'd chop the southern edge of that...

I still think we will...mid atl will probably get one event that provides the bulk of the seasonal allotment.

Agree on everything. I think March is decent. And calling for extreme anonalies months in advance is tough...I hit in February 2018, but its a gamble...you have to be very confident.

Thanks....I thinnk...? Lol