40/70 Benchmark

You don't know that. Hell, even in that 97-98 inferno I scored nearly 50".

Peak snow climo is such for a reason...its near the coldest time of the year, and thus positive temp anomalies are not as prohibitive to snowfall. Throw in an active first and last third, and bang....climo seasonal snowfall. Retention is another story....well below normal.

Get used to that that this winter lol

Not me....especially around the holidays. I will take around average snowfall, but if its going to be a terd...sure, cool down for the holidays, then burn it down. There are two conditions under which cold and dry is acceptable to me: 1) Snow pack in place....preserve it. 2) Holidays. No one wants Christmas in July.

F*ck that. I'd rather relapse with a bottle of gin by myself and watch the snow fall

This is how I expect December to look, which should prevent a total ratter. I def. see the path to a rat, though....not tough to envision given the background this season.

Really?

Residual.

I know....been 15 years for me! I was 25 Our outlooks seem pretty similar, though you are a bit colder.

I should have posted that in here, too. Thanks.

I think the holidays should be wintry, but watch the NAO relax on xmas eve lol

That is true. March, as well. I do not always follow the composite 100%. I tried to doctor them more this season because its been worse in the past. I did also say that I can see December bleeding into January for a bit.

I think Dec looks better. I could see that. I think second half of Dec into a portion of January is best. January will go to crap eventually, though.

Looks like it has some NAO in December, though. We may have our own private winter early on.

Please let me know if you guys like the new format, as it seemed the other way was just too tedious and time consuming for both myself as well as the reader.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots. The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired. Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did.

2/3 of my primary analogs were toasters for NE in Nov.

Nov 1970 was not as warm as that composite nationally, but NE was a toaster.

The model output looks neither unreasonable, or overly uninspiring to me...assuming expectations are calibrated with reality.

Plus 2 DJF implies that there is probably one good month in there, and I know where I stand on that.

I actually reall I actually think that looks pretty reasonable. +2-2.5 at this latitude is not winter cancel.

I think it maybe a bit too cold in December and especially January, but like it otherwise.