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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think one thing I should have hit harder in my outlook was the reprieve in the first half of Dec....I was honestly thinking that may take place more earlier than mid, but I inadvertently glossed over it. If I had to verbalize a concern now, it would be that my timeline may be a bit fast....ie favorable period taking place later in Dec and riding more in January than I had advertised. But lets see what happens.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what I was right about is that we are still going to get a slew of modest to moderate SWFE this month and maybe some redevelopers....we aren't getting skunked because there is so much cold over Canada, and the PV is elongated onto our side of the globe....while it is stout, it is not a 2011 death star. The polar domain should be less hostile than 12/2007 and maybe a bit more hostile than 2008 or comparable.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I think it will later in the season, but looks to be admittedly a bit less blocky than I had thought for December. Probably worse for the tri state region than us....Dec 1970 was one of the snowier months of December on record here, so it will def probably be somewhat less snowy than that this month with a more hostile arctic.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was one of my analogs....def some parallels with the big negative PDO and okay arctic.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I doubt anyone from I84 on up gets completely shut out.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be pretty surprised if that one doesn't work out for a few inches from around the pike in and N in MA.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the high was 49.8...settled back to 49.3. Mild day, but no torch.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, they are a foreign concept in NYC and Jersey because they are rain there.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yesterday never looked like several inches north of the pike.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably one of those wall of snow deals.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right on schedule.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like about 4-5" here.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't bother me in the least.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dissing the charts is a real trigger for Steve lol
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not as bad as it looks...its like 1-3 degrees above average as is. I would argue its actually biased a bit warm at the surface around here with cold being plentiful in Canada. It has the right idea IMO. It implies a blend of Apps runners/SWFE and Miller B redevelopment, dependent upon how timing and degree of any confluence and blocking that is in place.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Up to 46.4 now..inversion is breaking.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, serviceable implies in the game, but I agree its precarious there...just going by past experience/climo for these regimes.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The favorable regime is likely to carry over into early Jan, and we could even get a nice phase-change event before another crappy stretch.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    .25" last Friday 11/26.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Use this site for ENSO appropriate monthly MJO composites, guys. MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pike points north good, I-84 points north servicable. KCON and up is great.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, go ensembles...OP is too ugly.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I am confident takes place. Polar domain will get less hostile around holidays, but there isn't going to be big blocking until late season IMO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just about to tell him the same thing....its going to be 12/2007 lite for a stetch.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    43.9 at home....no torch yet.
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