40/70 Benchmark

One more shot before Xmas, 1 more before NY...then at that point, the thaw is on the horizon.

All 3 of these la ninas have had the same underlying traits/have and have nots...tenor has been like dead-nuts same with some different indecies etc.. Rinse and repeat....if your locale isn't in the meteorologocial "click", then you just get the train run on you for 3 years.

I think these nuances are that can save the ORH hills and even the lower terrain WOR. Agreed. I don't think it will be enough here.

Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino.

Quick, someone post a H5 chart from 12/27...I need to restore some semblance of faith in the long range.

I thought December would get off to a slow start, but end up with a few SWFEs...what I didn't realize is not much snow would precede the SWF.

Anyone east of the ORH hills needs to prey for a break with respect to the system on or around 12/23ish.

Shocking...its been locked onto this since 00z Sunday.

More are going to join me after Friday.

December 1992 is gone. Everything is awful but the GFS, which is still awful...though closest to not awful.

So far, so good....not perfect, but decent.

You are right about that. Last night was nice, despite coming up as a local min yet again.....but the 1" cover is tenous and its Monday AM...leg day at the GYM, too....so agree with respect to the mood aspect. Like I said, I see the argument for colder and will see how things look tomorrow.

I've said this before, but with each passing day I feel more like I just need to mouthwash this interminable and insufferable cool ENSO episode the fu&* out of the hemisphere before my luck will change. Just something in the DNA/footprint of this particular ENSO episode that just despises winer in NE MA/SE NH. Fu*&* it.

Yea, I would still feel okay in western NE. Agree.

That would be a feat in and of itself....having an -8SD NAO block, or whatever the hell it is...avoiding the prototypical "Grincher", yet still manufacturing a way to steer clear of a white Xmas.

Yea, day 4-5....doesn't change anything in my mind. From my vantage point, the inherent "potential" of this pattern belies the fact that it looks pretty damn tenuous for my area right out through Xmas at this particular point in time.

I get it...there is a block, its still 4 days out, blah, blah...plenty of time. But I just had a feeling all along that if this was going to work out for my area, then things would have looked better than this at day 4. My gut is that I have a bad feeling we are settling in on a solution and its one that is going to pork my general area.....again, albeit in a different manner than this past one did. That primary started to hang on longer with 00z Sunday suite and we've just been chasing our tail ever since....not good at this range. Again, this is with respect to my area....I get that those out west are still very much in play.

Christmas is saved

The trend on the GFS was more encouraging than the one on the EURO IMO.

I only look for a quick assessment of trends...that's it. I also look aloft, of course.

Yea, those always work out.

In that case, let me grab Tiny Tim and rejoice I just feel like anyone on the CP is getting to the point where its like a cat running around in a circle trying to catch its tail......just obsessing over minute trends that may or may not be noise, but in the end really won't alter the forecast much in YBY.

Hopefully the block exerts more of an influence. I'll do a First Call on that one tomorrow, but I think my preview map from Friday is the ceiling on that one.

I'm just about ready to punt the 16th.