Yea, this is the worst...no doubt....completely boring, yet not very comfortable and enticing enough for MJO to keep besieging us with ICON output and bedtime stories about phase 8. Just go 2011 and rip the band aid off...comfy numb.
Its milder than the other two, but I think there would be plenty of cold near by in that look with the orientation of the PV. Could be a decent pattern with latitude.
Will, the main difference off of the top of my head with respect to those years is that they were descending easterly QBO and even flipped westerly late.
Yea, I am not saying to buy that single OP run...obviously await ensemble consensus and then consistency, but that is a start. I think that is the right path. It just doesn't sit well with me that this season is a ratter.
Its about wound up systems providing the impetus for mass heat flux to higher latitudes in order to facilitate a change to a more favorable pattern by raising heights up there. They also represent wave breaking events that can shift the pattern. The reason you don't hear about that with respect to blizzards near the BM is because we are usually already in a favorable pattern at that time.
Totally disregard that.....I misunderstood you. Completely my fault. I had already edited.
Once it had actually worked out like that, yea....we got about what would be expected from that compressed flow.