40/70 Benchmark

Well, it is what it is....I'm not saying its going to hit, but that piqued my interest a bit.

What is it?

Just comparing to last run...I think trends from the immediately prior runs gain more value the closer we get.

About 3members retrograde inside the BM and just sit for like 12 hours before slowly drifting east. None did this at 00z.

Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Looks best.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit. 2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z.

I wonder if that could lead to a model bust, since it seems to impact the ridge, but never gets sampled before the event makes its closest approach....

I had 17.5" in that....obviously minus OES.

The image across the NW territories that the arrow is pointing at.

Watch it give @TheGrauplera blizzard and flip the rest of us off.

Will, when is that arctic SW that messes with the PNA ridge for Friday better sampled? Seems a pretty short lead to Friday.

Dude, at this point, I would give Albany a deformation zone.

I was torn between 2015 and 2005 for an analog...would have to look at both.

I was about to go there...glad you did.

Yea, my bad.

Yea, in the end, I would be surprised if we make it to 1/20 with nothing to show for it....its tough for everything to get shunted.

You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal.

I think Steve said he was at average snowfall.

Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less data sparse domain.

Admittedly, yes.

Ha I wish....06z ICON.

That thing is up in the arctic right now, so maybe not sampled well if you want a beacon of hope...If that lobe of energy is further away and and/or weaker, that storm would hit IMO.

How a Pattern can Potentially be too Active for Major Snows The ridge on the west coast dictates that the next series of disturbances approaching the east coast will be able to amplify into major storms, however, what makes this a very high stakes pattern is that there is not much space between each one. Thus if anything is "off" with respect to a given system's ability to produce a major snowfall on the east coast, then it may have a ripple effect in that it may only serve to interfere with subsequent storm threats, thereafter. The first such system is an amplifying ocean storm that will make its closes pass to the region on Friday. The current consensus strongly favors the western ridge not being quite amplified enough for this system to have a major impact on the region. This is in large part due to a northern stream disturbance compressing the northern portion of the ridge just enough to preclude a major strike from this system across region, as noted in the annotation above. However, a less likely scenario is that the ridge manages to protrude further into Alaska downstream from this disturbance. This would allow the system to amplify slightly more and since its exit would be blocked by a western atlantic ridge to the north, it could retrograde close enough to impact at least the eastern portion of southern New England

The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK. JMHO.

9" of snow at mid season where I live is brutal

No, that is very fair. My guess is that the pattern breaks down toward month's end, maybe last week. Well, that is our right as hobbyists....I feel it amplifies the disappointment.