40/70 Benchmark

Well, that struck a nerve..it was just a joke. I understand that arrogant and condescending people like you never solicit feedback and exchange ideas with others (or at least won't admit to it), but the reality is that most people do...its a wonderful way to facilitate growth and advance the field. I don't know everything and yes, there are other people with great ideas, like yourself, that add value to my efforts. Always cited, of course. I don't steal anything or take credit for the work of others. Perhaps you should take a break from using others as a conduit for the incessant stroking of your ego and and actually open your mind; you'll be a better forecaster for it.

It seems as though there does exist a correlation of of some sort, but causation is another ball game. I don't think that is prohibitive from using it as a seasonal outlook tool because we see random correlations used quite frequently....raindance is always mentioning how if (insert random occurrence around the globe) happens, then it means a cold February in Albuquerque.

Depends on the track, too because that influences wind direction. If we do have a negative NAO, there can be decent snows relatively close to the coast because the wind will not be due east.

Its good to be indiscriminate, I guess...

This also has support from a lot of the seasonals, as well as analogs.

@ORH_wxman@CoastalWx What are your thoughts on the idea that SH strat cooling could be linked to NH strat warming? https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ There isn't any peer reviewed material backing it, but it makes sense to me due to the element of balance at play.....we see this all of the time in the tropics.....IE areas of lift at the surface meaning descent above, as well as down stream in longitude and latitude. This would fit right in with the proclivity for earth to inexorably strive for that elusive balance that it will never achieve. I think it could act to accentuate early season la nina climo.

He didn't say that. He implied that the warmer SSTs may lead to a stormier pattern. That would be interesting if the early season NAO works out....especially just back from the coast and at higher elevations.

Seems to line up pretty well with VP maps.

Not very constricted, and pretty elongated.....1991-2020 climo really accentuates lower heights, as well. Here is a different vantage point

I actually meant during this past SH winter, which would be June through August.

1996 is perhaps the strongest December analog IMO....it was a second year cool ENSO. The sequence concept is just an add-on IMO...its not a deal breaker if you think an analog has value. Do you have any peer reviewed research linking SH cooling to NH warming, or is that your cursory postulation? It does make sense....the earth loves to balance, and that is the very essence of ENSO, which is why its so self-destructive.

Is this data set above years in which there was a major SH eruption? What about the one below? Are these just seasons that you personally feel are good analogs?

Man, snowman needs to move south lol

This works right in with basin wide/modoki nina climo, which is for the most wintery part of the season to be in December before going to crap later.

Paul, I don't see a velocity potential option on this like the other one.....I hate that, as I use it to show ENSO forcing. I guess OLR would be the closest proxy to that of the available option with this tool.... @CoastalWxis OLR pretty much akin to .2101 sigma VP?

Did the SH have a very strong, and constricted PV this past winter?

I'm sure that was next on @snowman19's list of tweets to quote. For real, though....I am seeing a real theme for negative NAO on the seasonal guidance, especially early on. Last season, the seasonals all had +NAO, which worked out.

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.

I just said its a warm pattern...it was already faced. I already admitted that 62DP was not coc K.

Even that is close RE whether or not it would have been a big deal where I am...it probably would have, but its almost too far east.

The fact that you had to qualify it like that tells you that its not, in fact, "summer" stuff....its a warm, pleasant pattern in early fall.

As for the QBO....its relevance is still the subject of much debate and their are countless examples, such as last season, when the PV evolves in a manner opposite of what one would assume based on the overall character of the QBO. I mean, we have had like 9/10 of the past winter seasons average a +NAO....I know there were more easterly QBO seasons than that. And as for la nina supporting a +AO/NAO, that relationship becomes much more nebular when the event remains fairly weak, as it should this season for reasons already stated. What we are then left with is ACE, which is still in progress, and Atlantic SSTs, which at this time are not at all conducive to a negative NAO. How much of that is a "chicken or the egg" dynamic is still up for debate.

I would be careful about including PDO and IOD and that grouping, as well....I have already established that the PNA is relatively stochastic in nature and parts ways with the PDO fairly frequently. I think it increases the likelihood of such an occurrence when the the negative PDO is ascending, as it should be this season. As for the IOD, I have already explained why its not as coupled with la nina than it would have if the event had developed early in the summer, as opposed to lingering from the past two years. This is at least in part why it is playing out as I have said it would, with la nina stagnating and even eroding somewhat, as opposed to flourishing this fall. I think a situation like this is where the bias of certain posters is on full display because while assertions may not be without merit on the surface, there is a reluctance to dig any deeper because the simple conclusion happens to suite said bias.

Well aside from maybe the fall of 2009, there are always factors that are, at least ostensibly, against a cold and/or snowy winter every year, and given that we have already established that this year doesn't have the ceiling of 2009....sounds about right.

Yea, more of a risk of la nina were stronger.