40/70 Benchmark

I don't think ACE has been lower recently....without the numbers in front of me, so maybe I am speaking out of my rear, but I don't believe that to be the case. It's been a pretty damn active 25 years or so. The talk about attributing climate change to one very quiet season is absurd...I mean, theoretically speaking...yes, viable theory..but it's one year. I love how when we get crushed with snow, we await regression like clockwork, but when the 150+ ACE season assembly line finally takes a breather, it must be climate change...what happened to simple regression? Does Mr. Regression not like the tropics? Lol

There are circles of people who attribute everything and anything at all to climate change...we finally have one season that fails to meet hyper activity criteria, and out come the conspiracy theories about mother nature. Holy $hit, stab my eyes out with a fork and Hadley me to death.

Max would drown out the effect of climate change a bit...good alternative if you dnt want to use the 1951-2010 climo set.

Right...just saying, is it better to use temps, or daily maxes...I have traditionally used temps...

Or temp anomalies vs daily max temp anomalies...

I was well down into the 40s at least 3 nights this past week.

Can't argue with that.

A hot pattern in July and August is misery, but a hot September and October is just pleasant.

I get that its warm, but I'm sorry...mid September "heat" is in no way, shape or form as uncomfortable as it was just a month ago....the sun just doesn't have the same punch and it's very noticeable. I can totally deal with this.

The main reason we even look at forcing is to illustrate a how disparate types of ENSO manifest around the hemisphere, so I really don't see the benefit of using a climo period and/or variable that attenuates said difference. It defeats the purpose. If the forcing was actually changing, then that is one thing...but we know from the H5 plots that it is not.

I have updated all of my la nina H5 and SST composites to reflect the 1951-2010 climo period. I ended up leaving the VP composites alone, which are all 1981-2010, save for east based (1991-2020). I had to update the east-based composite to include last season, so that meant 1981-2010 was no longer an option. I like how the VP reflects forcing a bit better than OLR, and VP is not an option of the climo period converter maps, unfortunately. I don't think heterogeneous climo periods for something like forcing is a huge deal.

Tracking the Tropical Paint Dry.....should edit the thread.

Except that's his baseline.

The elevated valleys are where its at....the areas around 1000' within a 1500' ridge.

LOL If they didn't know the date of the traffic nightmare storm of 2007, then it was no dice.

Absolutely. Have said the same thing myself.

Absolutely. I do not at all dispute the importance of math. I salute those those can do it at a high level....no sarcasm intended.

I do appreciate the value of mathematics because it does provide a superior understanding of the foundational physical processes at play, but I also agree that there are plenty of good forecasters that were never exposed to Calculus VI.

You should def. get caught up on the thread because we just discussed that article for like 3 pages lol

I've said this before, but believe it or not....there is a great deal of commonalty between writing clinical formulations and seasonal outlooks. They each work into my strengths of integrating/synthesizing data. I like being able to refine and formulate my own perspective form info...I hate the way math "worm holes" you in to one precise solution lol

Totally me.....I can't count how many times I was asked, or it was suggested that I should pursue weather...my answer was always the same; I can't do the math. Buts its okay....the events of my life unfolded in such a manner that I think I provide tremendous value as a LICSW/therapist, and the meteorology is one of my key outlets. It works.

To be fair, I honestly couldn't lol The funny part is that math and science are not my thing....I am SO mathematically deficient...can hardly do algebra. But I am very articulate and have a way of integrating and synthesizing info, which coupled with an immense passion for snow fuels a very meticulous (think OCD) method of research.

Yow know who he reminds me of? You remember Jim Hughes on Eastern? I know @ORH_wxman will remember him. The guy knew his stuff and offered valuable insight with respect to the solar implications of meteorology, but the dude just turned people off...always craving credit and accusing people of not "recognizing him" etc...you'd try to engage him about some frontier way of using the sun to forecast, and he'd literally be like "I remember when I tried to bring that up on Eastern like 10 years ago, and no one listened". Such an edge to him....Raindance kind of me reminds of him. So much valuable insight that essentially falls on deaf ears because his attitude, tone and demeanor just turns people off. One correlation he apparently hasn't studied yet is social aptitude and success. Hughes is till on Twitter, BTW....and you can hear echoes within each of his Tweet threads.

I honestly didn't expect that...wow. lol

What's funny is that because I respect him as a forecaster, I will ask his opinion on certain issues, and he will just completely blow it off and carry on commenting below like the post didn't exist. I have also cited him several different times as one of my "must reads" and one of the more talented seasonal forecasters that I know of, but that one passing kernel of sarcasm is what he chooses to acknowledge and then attack/essentially accuse me of plagiarizing the work of other forecasters. I mean, this field is driven by PEER REVIEWED research for a reason....the free and open exchange of ideas is what drives the science, and is an entirely different concept from presenting the work of others as your own. No one accused him of not coming up with his own ideas when he cited the article on the release of water vapor into the atmosphere from volcanoes lol. Jesus, its how we learn, but apparently he was born with all of this immense meteorological insight.